The war between russia and Ukraine continues to destroy the established global order and economic ties almost everywhere. Just recently, we reported on the difficult situation in the global banana market and the expected shortage of pallets in Europe. At the end of this week, citrus suppliers from South Africa announced a possible crisis, EastFruit reports citing local media Foodformzansi.co.za.

The loss of the russian market after the imposition of international sanctions will force South African citrus exporters to look for alternative markets for at least 10% of their supplies, according to the South African Citrus Growers Association (CGA). In addition to direct logistical, transport and financial issues, the situation is aggravated by the growth of production costs in the country.

Exporters from South Africa are already reporting the negative impact of russian aggression on the supply of early varieties of lemons, and the export season for grapefruits and mandarins in the country starts in April.

The loss of the export market in Ukraine for South Africa will be a minor event, as exporters have only recently started using direct supply opportunities in Ukraine. Meanwhile, russia annually consumed 7-10% of the total volume of citrus fruits exported from South Africa. For example, russian market operators imported about 168 000 tonnes of citrus fruits from South Africa in 2021.

In addition, suppliers from Morocco, Turkey and Egypt were also aimed at the russian market, and now they will be partially forced to look for alternative markets. “This could lead to an oversupply of citrus in these markets and affect the supply season for early varieties from South Africa,” said Justin Chadwick, Chairman of the CGA. “In addition, the devaluation of the ruble will make imported products in russia more expensive, and the payment system will be complicated due to financial constraints.”

In addition to problems with the export, citrus producers in South Africa also faced the negative impact of the situation in the domestic market. The cost of fertilizers in the South African market has doubled over the past year, and the prices of plant protection products have increased by 1.5 times. Also, the cost of fuel and freight increased by 30-40% in the country in 2021, and after the aggression of russia, the cost of the services of shipping companies will keep increasing due to rising oil prices.

“Major European ports, where citrus fruits are shipped from South Africa, are now overloaded, as all containers are undergoing various checks. Because of this, the transit of goods from South Africa, which previously took about 24 days, now takes up to 90 days in some cases,” adds J. Chadwick.

Сообщение Echoes of russian aggression – citrus fruits in South Africa появились сначала на EastFruit.

Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine and numerous documented war crimes against civilians in this country made most international and foreign companies withdraw from russia and stop any business with it. EastFruit also banned any access to its resources for the companies and citizens from russia and belarus.

EastFruit’s international team of experts realizes that many companies in our region heavily rely on revenues gained from sales in russia. However, we also understand that the life of every child and every innocent civilian, which are killed every day by the coward russian army is priceless and has more value than anything else.

Through its continued terrorism in Ukraine russia is also ruining global food security. Ukrainian farmers are presently unable to carry out any field works and many of the farms are destroyed completely. This will most likely kill millions of people worldwide due to food shortages and an imminent surge in global hunger and malnutrition.

Therefore, the international team of EastFruit would like to call on all horticulture businesses in the world to stop any businesses with russia. Do not export fruits and vegetables to russians, do not sell them farm equipment, seeds, nursery plants, greenhouse technologies, do not provide technical advice and do not buy anything from these barbarians! The world needs to unite and stop russian aggression towards humanity, democracy, and human rights!

From today onwards EastFruit is going to closely monitor which countries and companies continue dealing with russia and are co-financing russian terrorism and killings of children in Ukraine and worldwide. We will also make sure to report the names of these companies to the public.

Remember, that reputation is the most valuable asset in any business, and maintaining any relation with russia today will ruin your reputation. We also call on all businesses worldwide to support the true heroes of Ukraine in their amazing and brave resistance to the russian occupiers. All key accounts for donations and other important details on how anyone could help are described here.

Сообщение EastFruit calls on all reputable businesses to stop any business with russia появились сначала на EastFruit.

The European Federation of Wooden Pallet and Packaging Manufacturers (FEFPEB) in a recent address expressed its support to the people of Ukraine and stated that there could well be a shortage of wooden pallets and packaging on the European market in the coming weeks, EastFruit reports citing EuroFruit.

Ukraine exported over 2.7 million m³ of lumber last year, a significant part of which was used for the production of wooden pallets and packaging in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. Ukraine also independently produced and exported to European states about 15 million of its own pallets.

The war in Ukraine and the shutdown of sawnwood production will soon have the most serious consequences for pallet manufacturers in Hungary, Italy and Germany (the Top-3 countries importing sawnwood from Ukraine), FEFPEB notes. Moreover, there will be an indirect negative effect on the whole Europe, as the market will unbalance and packaging prices will go up.

In addition to stopping deliveries from Ukraine, the EU wooden pallet and packaging market will also face difficulties with imports from the Russian Federation and Belarus, which annually supplied about 7.6 million m³ of lumber to the EU (mainly to Estonia, Germany and Finland).

However, FEFPEB said it supported the imposition of trade sanctions on Russia and Belarus, although some EU countries are almost a quarter dependent on the supply of materials for the production of pallets from Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian suppliers. Alternative suppliers from Scandinavia, Germany and the Baltic countries are currently not yet able to fully cover the possible shortage.

The energy crisis also stirs the pot. It has already caused the price of fuel in Europe to rise by almost a third, and the cost of a barrel of oil has reached $110. This is all added to long-standing problems in the industry and the economy, such as the global transport crisis, shortages of labor and commodities, and the destruction of established logistics routes.

Сообщение The war between Russia and Ukraine will cause a shortage of pallets in Europe появились сначала на EastFruit.

In 2021, Georgia exported $5 081 000 worth of blueberries to Russia. The 2022 season will start in June, but growers are in a limbo today. The consequences of the war with Ukraine are likely to affect the Russian economy in the coming months. The only way to save this season is to export to the EU and other developed markets, but is it realistic? Georgia became a producer of blueberries quite recently, but 90% of all export earnings from the sale of blueberries come from the Russian Federation.

Watch: video about the blueberry sector in Georgia

The EastFruit team contacted several blueberry growers in Georgia to find out what their plans are for the season.

Although growers cannot make an accurate forecast, today’s view of the future looks hopeless. Growers are worried that Russian consumers will become poorer due to sanctions, and demand for blueberries will fall, since they are not an essential product.

An alternative to the Russian market is the EU and Gulf countries, but it seems that the industry, with the exception of a few large growers, is not ready to export to these markets without previous experience. Only a few growers are ready to export to the EU this season.

Why haven’t Georgian blueberry producers diversified their export markets so far?

Growers cited several reasons: logistics difficulties, unfavorable payment terms, uncertified production, as well as the ability of local laboratories to check the safety of products.

Logistics

Georgia does not have cargo planes for export to the Gulf countries, although a small volume of blueberries has been exported to Qatar only by passenger airlines in recent seasons. Another hurdle is that since it is not a cargo plane, it does not have the proper facilities, such as temperature control, to carry perishable goods.

Export to the EU countries is carried out by land transport, which is not difficult to organize. The issue is time. If a perishable cargo from Georgia reaches Russia in 3-4 days, then, for example, it needs 9-10 days to reach Germany. Transport time is critical for perishable goods, as more time spent on the road means lower quality and loss for the seller.

Terms of payment

As the growers explained, there are different payment terms in the Russian and European markets. Payment in Russia was made on the spot, while European traders only pay after the sale of goods, which delays payment by weeks, reducing cash flow and increasing risks for sellers. When exporting to EU markets, grower also take on the risks of transportation and defective products, since they will be paid only for commodity volumes.

Certification and laboratory research

Growers without certificates such as GlobalG.A.P. will not be able to export to the EU as this is the first requirement from European customers. Unfortunately, only a few large growers are certified by GlobalG.A.P. in Georgia, while most of the small producers initially set up their business to export to the Russian market, where certification is not required.

In addition to certification, blueberries must be tested for product safety in order to enter developed markets. According to producers, laboratories in Georgia cannot do all the necessary tests.

FCO is one of the few producers that received GlobalG.A.P. certification in 2020. According to FCO spokesman Rati Morchiladze, although it seems that this season will be difficult for most growers, their company plans to sell in Western Europe, as they have already done this last season.

“Last season we exported a small volume of blueberries to Germany. We only managed to export once at the end of the season due to the difficulties we faced. One of the factors that delayed the process was that we had to send samples to Turkey in order to pass all the requested tests. But now we know what needs to be done and how to do it in a short time. This season it should be easier for us to export to Germany. We even found a way to shorten the transportation time. With two drivers driving a truck in turn, it is possible to get to Germany in 5-6 days,” said Morchiladze.

Those who are not yet ready to export to the EU are still hoping that the Russian market will not be completely closed, but they are also considering the worst-case scenario, realizing the need to diversify markets in the future.

Сообщение Is Georgia ready to export blueberries to the EU? появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit has recently reported that at least three factories producing concentrate in Moldova will continue to accept apples. Theoretically, the Moldovan industry will be able to process the entire remaining marketable volume of apples from the 2021 harvest into apple juice concentrate by the summer – more than 100 000 tonnes. The leaders of the largest enterprises in the industry believe that under the current conditions, apples will be accepted for processing in the next 2-3 months “in the normal mode, hardly anyone will risk a sharp increase in the purchase volume of raw materials and the production of apple concentrate.”

According to them, current production plans are greatly influenced by the fact that about 10 000-18 000 tonnes of concentrate from Moldova, which until recently had real buyers, will most likely not be sent to the Russian market in the foreseeable future. By Moldovan standards, this is a large volume, given that the country annually produces 25 000-45 000 tonnes of apple juice concentrate. There are already at least 40 000 tonnes of concentrate from the apples harvested last year.

With large unsold inventories and foreseeing severe difficulties in the energy sector, processors will not risk taking expensive bank loans to expand the production of concentrate from last year’s apples. With a high degree of probability, this additional concentrate will be stored for an indefinite period.

Сообщение A sharp increase in the production of apple juice concentrate in Moldova remains doubtful появились сначала на EastFruit.

Following Russia’s armed invasion in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Georgian farmers faced difficulties exporting seasonal fruits and aromatic herbs to Russia.

After Russia invaded Ukraine last week, the rest of the civilized world responded to the aggressor with harsh sanctions that have already played their part in weakening the Russian economy. The Russian ruble fell more than 30%, making it difficult for traders to plan ahead as the economic situation is expected to worsen in the near future.

In spring, Georgia usually exports aromatic herbs and apples to Russia, which is a traditional export market for Georgian agricultural products. EastFruit asked farmers and traders to comment on the situation on the market, taking into account the consequences of sanctions against Russia.

The 2021-2022 season has already been challenging for herb producers in Georgia. If earlier farmers complained about low prices and competition with other suppliers in the Russian market, now the situation looks even more dramatic. Hopes for an improvement in exports in the spring have vanished. According to farmers, exporters do not want to form lots due to the growing uncertainty in the Russian market. Importers explain the situation by the rapid depreciation of the ruble and issues with the transfer of money from Russia. Consequently, prices for aromatic herbs have already fallen in Georgia as well. Now the wholesale price for cilantro and parsley in the western regions of Georgia is 2 GEL/kg ($0.62), and dill is even cheaper – 0.5 GEL/kg ($0.16). The harvest period in high unheated tunnels should last until April, but some farmers are now considering planting early cucumbers or tomatoes, which they think will be in demand in the local market in the spring.

It should be noted that Ukraine is the second largest market for Georgian herbs, which is now closed due to the war with Russia.

The farmers who have not had harvest yet, but expect it in the spring and are counting on the Russian market, are also worried.

The Georgian company GDB LLC supplies the McDonald’s chain in Russia with locally produced salad. In 2021, the company started open field lettuce production on ​​3 hectares and exported the first crop in November. According to Iva Chkonia, the founder of the company, they expect about 150-180 tonnes of lettuce (iceberg, lollo rosso, romaine) this spring, and if there are issues with money transfers from Russia, they will have to sell it in other markets.

“We produce three varieties of lettuce for McDonald’s in Russia, but they are unpopular in Georgia. Thus, it will be difficult to sell it in Georgia, given the volume of the crop that we expect,” Chkonia said. — We are currently working on finding alternative markets. Possibly Poland, Romania, the Baltic States and the Arab world. But exporting there will be difficult in terms of logistics. I think that in this situation, the Georgian government should support local producers so that they enter alternative markets.”

Apples are another crop that Georgia exports to Russia in spring. According to local farmers, the exports of apples has been stopped for the moment. Farmers mostly have in stock the Kekhura variety of red apples, which is popular on the Russian market. Farmers still receive stable prices on the local market, within the range of 1.5-2 GEL/kg ($0.47-0.63), but they fear that prices may soon fall, as apples intended for export will overwhelm the local market.

Apples and herbs are not the only products in Georgia whose exports will be affected in the near future. EastFruit will continue to analyze the consequences of the war for the agricultural sector in Georgia and the region.

Сообщение There is no demand for Georgian apples and aromatic herbs on the Russian market – the first consequences of the Russian invasion in Ukraine for Georgian growers появились сначала на EastFruit.

More than a week ago russia cowardly invaded Ukraine. While russian army killed hundreds of civilians in Ukraine and lost around 10,000 of its own soldiers, death rate caused by the russian invasion on the global scale through destroyed global food security is going to be greater than that of Covid-19.

While the developing world will lose lots of lives from growing hunger, the developed countries will lose unprecedented amounts of money directly and indirectly over decades to come. The russians will also slow down the scientific progress worldwide for many years ahead.

I have been working for 18-20 hours each day since the invasion, trying to do my job and helping people in Ukraine survive russian aggression, I do not have much spare time to do the in-depth analyses. However, I will provide only official stats and draw my own rough estimates based on my 30 years of experience in the global food market analytics. They should be very close to the reality, but I need to say that it is not an official position of my employer. I hope they will share their position asap as well. Here are the scary food security facts caused by russians.

1. According to estimates of the best grain market analysts, wheat and corn account for 27% of all calories, or, in other words, for 27% of all food in the world!
2. Ukraine and russia together export more than 25% of all wheat in the world. Wheat is the key food security commodity on Earth. There are no exports from Ukraine now, and exports have almost stopped from Russia due to their issues with SWIFT and logistical risks. Prices are already in the space. Wheat prices reached $500 USD in Egypt and they can’t get it even for this high price!
3. Where does this wheat from Ukraine and russia go? It is mostly exported to third-world countries. It is already becoming difficult to source it in these countries and some are already scared of the hunger riots.
4. Corn is also a critical product (it is an animal feed, critical for producing milk, meat, eggs, and even fish) and Ukraine is the largest exporter in the region by far. Other exporters in the Americas.
5. Ukraine is a #1 global exporter of sunflower oil, and russia is the second. Together they account for 67% of the global exports! Basically, forget about the sunflower oil, for now, nothing is being exported. I will not mention meat where Ukraine is a significant but not a critical exporter.
6. Ukraine is already missing the planting campaign in the south, where huge hordes of russians are ruining the fields with their tanks and shooting randomly at civilians. Also, now it is critical to apply fertilizers, but this isn’t happening either.
7. I wrote a large blog about fertilizers more than a month ago warning that the shortage is imminent even without the war and that it would worsen global food security considerably. Nitrogen fertilizers are the most critical ones and nearly 80% of the production costs there is gas. With gas prices at their record high levels, the situation is already looking very grim for the yields globally this year.
8. Expensive fertilizers mean that all countries of the world, especially the poor ones, will use less or no fertilizers. Without fertilizers, the harvests will be reduced and some will not make it at all.
9. Even if the war ends today, which is certainly not happening, Ukraine will not be able to export for many more months, and then it will take Ukraine another two years to reach the same production and exports levels. The aggressor, russia, will be isolated and will sharply reduce exports as well. They are already short of crop protection and other imported basics. Energy prices will be high for at least a few more years before the civilized world learns to live without russia’s gas and oil.
10. The number of people in the world who do not have access to a minimum set of calories will increase, according to my very rough estimates, by 800 million people this year, and maybe even by 1 billion, totally destroying the UN’s strategic goal to eradicate the global hunger. Please bear in mind that I did not consider the collapse GDP of all countries in these already very shocking estimates!
11. It means a sharp increase in infant mortality rates in poor countries and many deaths from hunger and other diseases caused by malnutrition among adults.
12. It also means that many children in the world will not be able to realize their full potential, make new scientific discoveries, promote human development because the lack of food in childhood cannot be compensated later.
13. These children from poor countries are now the basis for the development and progress in rich countries. Gifted young people emigrate to the United States, Britain, the EU, and to the developed countries in Asia and ensure their progress. All of this will now slow down sharply, only because putin decided to destroy a free, democratic country.
14. In rich countries, the population keeps a significant share of their savings, inclusive of pensions in the stock market. They already have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in recent days due to the coward russian invasion into Ukraine. Guess what? They will lose even more as this war drags on for a while. They will also now spend hundreds of billions more on food, and this will also come from their future savings. So, the losses of rich countries are much greater than the losses of Ukraine or russia.
15. I want people in the NATO member countries and other developed countries to understand that you are already losing much more than Ukraine or the rest of the world. Staying away from the war is actually bad for you and for your children!

Moreover, not helping to end this war quicker, is causing the death of millions of children in the world’s poorest countries. Future Musks and Jobs may die already this year due to the growing malnutrition.

The army of occupiers is weak and rusty although very numerous. They no longer have any reserves after obliteration caused by Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine proved that russian army could be beaten even without much of modern weapons. Getting directly involved in the war means saving hundreds of millions of lives as well as hundreds of billions of dollars of your money.

The opinion of the authors of comments and blogs posted on the website may not coincide with the opinions and position of the East-Fruit.com editors

Сообщение Global food security destroyed by russian invasion in Ukraine could kill hundreds of millions globally появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to the Rosselkhoznadzor, China again received the right to supply fresh apples and pears to the Russian market from February 20, 2022.

This is good news for China and for Russian consumers, who are now paying a very high price for Russia’s voluntary self-isolation from global markets. However, according to EastFruit analysts, this is bad news for Moldova, which has a major competitor in the Russian market.

“China is the world’s largest exporter of apples and has remained at the top of the global ranking of exporters, despite the ban on the supply of products to the Russian market. China exports about 1 million tonnes of fresh apples to many countries around the world annually. The main advantage of Chinese apples is their low price. Therefore, they are mainly purchased for a low price segment, while China imports premium-quality apples from countries such as New Zealand, the USA, Chile, South Africa and France,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Note that before the ban on supplies, Russia was one of the three main markets for fresh apples. Annual exports of Chinese apples to the Russian market ranged from 100 000 to 150 000 tonnes, which made China the second largest supplier of apples to Russia after Moldova. In some years, the volume of supplies of Chinese apples to the Russian market even exceeded the volumes of supplies from Moldova.

At the same time, Russia is the world’s largest importer of apples, purchasing from foreign markets from 700 000 tonnes to 1 million tonnes of fresh apples annually. In connection with the build-up of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the expected tightening of international sanctions against the Russian Federation, there is a real threat to Russia’s food security. Prices for vegetables and fruits in the Russian Federation can rise quite sharply, which will make them unaffordable for many local consumers, as the country is heavily dependent on their imports. Therefore, the refusal to ban the import of fruits and vegetables is a logical step.

Recall that the import of apples and pears from China to Russia was stopped on August 10, 2019 due to the increased number of cases of deliveries to the country of products not complying with the Russia food safety regulation. Since then, Chinese products only in small volumes have been re-exported to the Russian market through third countries.

Сообщение Bad news for Moldova – Russia allowed apple and pear imports from China появились сначала на EastFruit.

After a rather long period of stagnation in Russia, the demand for onions has intensified, allowing local growers to raise prices, EastFruit project analysts report. The main reason for the increase in the cost of onions was the rapid reduction in stocks of high-quality onions. According to the producers, to date, the quality of onions in storage continues to deteriorate rapidly, as most farmers deliberately stored products that were initially unsuitable for long-term storage.

According to the project’s daily monitoring data, local producers offer high-quality onions at 13-22 RUB/kg ($0.17-0.29/kg) now, which is 10% more expensive on average than a week earlier. According to representatives of wholesale companies, today it is quite difficult to find the required volumes of high-quality onions. The main offer on the market is low-quality onions with a limited period of sales. Those producers who still have the necessary volumes of high-quality onions currently sell them either in small batches or under agreements concluded earlier.

It should be noted that the current price of onions in Russia is on average 22% higher than in the same period last year. Market participants do not rule out that the upward trend in prices in this segment will continue, and the growth rate of onion prices will accelerate as the stocks in farms decrease.

Сообщение After a long stagnation, onion prices are increasing again in Russia появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, Uzbekistan exported a record volume of table grapes to the Russian market in 2021, which allowed it to strengthen its position there. However, this achievement had a bitter aftertaste of record low export prices for table grapes. We will discuss this in more detail below.

Uzbekistan exported 106 000 tonnes of table grapes to Russia in 2021 – by 66% or 42 100 tonnes more than a year earlier. The volume of table grape exports from Uzbekistan has increased by 4.3 times over the past 5 years.

According to the average annual growth rate of table grape exports to the Russian market, Uzbekistan was a leader among the Top-5 suppliers. Iran and Tajikistan that increased exports faster were in the Top-10, but their export volumes have so far been much lower than those of Uzbekistan. Besides, supplies from Turkey, which remained the leader, grew only slightly less rapidly than exports from Uzbekistan. Egypt also stood out among the leaders with a high rate of increasing exports to Russia.

Read also: Tajikistan entered the TOP-10 largest suppliers of table grapes to Russia for the first time

The only country among the leaders that reduced the volume of table grape exports to Russia is Moldova. On average, Moldova has reduced table grape exports by 4% or 1 400 tonnes annually over the past 5 years. The Top-10 leaders in the supply of table grapes to Russia in 2021 were Turkey, Uzbekistan, Moldova, India, Egypt, Iran, Chile, Peru, Tajikistan and South Africa.

Now let’s get back to the prices for Uzbek table grapes. As we have repeatedly written, grape prices in Uzbekistan fell to record lows during the active export season, and Russian markets were oversaturated with cheap table grapes from Uzbekistan. This leads to a decrease in the income of producers, and we wrote about the reasons in the article “Ranking of leading table grapes varieties in Uzbekistan gives no hope for export expansion”. At the same time, our experts report that the active expansion of vineyard areas in the country continues, and old and well-known varieties are planted, as usual.

If Uzbekistan does not update the varietal composition of table grapes, increase efforts to improve the quality and create an infrastructure for storing table grapes, then, unfortunately, table grape prices may further fall.

Notably, Uzbekistan, a regional leader in terms of table grape exports, is also a leader in terms of retail prices for table grapes in winter. It means Uzbek consumers have to pay a very high price for grapes in winter, as the technologies for growing and storing are not developed enough to provide consumers with table grapes in their off-season.

Thus, there are still many free niches in the Uzbek table grape market and there are excellent opportunities for increasing income.

Сообщение Uzbekistan overtook Moldova and is catching up with Turkey in the exports of table grapes to Russia появились сначала на EastFruit.