consumption • EastFruit https://east-fruit.ru/en/ Информация о рынке овощей, фруктов, ягод и орехов Восточной Европы и Центральной Азии Tue, 29 Mar 2022 09:43:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://east-fruit.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/cropped-Logosq-32x32.png consumption • EastFruit https://east-fruit.ru/en/ 32 32 Uzbekistan: food security, exchange rate, macroeconomic stability https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/uzbekistan-food-security-exchange-rate-macroeconomic-stability/ https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/uzbekistan-food-security-exchange-rate-macroeconomic-stability/#respond Tue, 29 Mar 2022 09:43:16 +0000 https://east-fruit.ru/?p=102383 The treacherous attack of a huge russian army on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 threatened the food security of Uzbekistan and many other countries globally, impacting the already fragile global balance of food supplies. The government of Uzbekistan manages to cope with emerging threats so far, but the main challenges are...

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The treacherous attack of a huge russian army on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 threatened the food security of Uzbekistan and many other countries globally, impacting the already fragile global balance of food supplies. The government of Uzbekistan manages to cope with emerging threats so far, but the main challenges are yet to come.

In this article, we will outline the situation with food security, macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as consumer sentiment in Uzbekistan and try to assess the prospects and options for future developments.

Uzbekistan is a net importer of food items. The negative trade balance is about $500 million per year.

At the same time, 36% of imports are direct deliveries of food from countries that are directly involved in the war. About 30% of Uzbekistan’s food is imported from the russian federation, 4% from belarus and about 2% from Ukraine. The data on the supply of food from russia to Uzbekistan may even be underestimated, as some of the goods enter the country through intermediaries from Kazakhstan.

In exports, Uzbekistan’s dependence on food supplies to these three countries is even higher – according to our estimates, it is about 42%! About 40% of food products are exported to the russian market, including volumes passing through such intermediaries as Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

Accordingly, the impact on the food market of Uzbekistan of the war in Ukraine may be huge in the long term.

The most sensitive positions of Uzbekistan’s food trade

More than 60% of all food imports of Uzbekistan are high-calorie basic products, such as grain and grain products, vegetable oil and raw materials for its production, as well as sugar.

Quite sensitive to changes in the conjuncture of imports is the category of feed for livestock and, to a lesser extent, the import of meat itself. Uzbekistan is a net importer of all these goods, meaning that changes in import regimes, availability of imported goods and their prices can have a large impact on the domestic food market and food security.

The situation in Uzbekistan in terms of food security is relatively favorable only in terms of vegetables and fruits, with the possible exception of potatoes. However, there is also an issue of great dependence of the fruit and vegetable business of Uzbekistan on the supply of vegetables and fruits to the markets of russia and other countries that have close trade ties with it. Due to the sharp drop in effective demand in russia, the sharp devaluation of the local currency and the outflow of the population from the country, traders and producers in Uzbekistan urgently need to look for alternative markets. This is not an easy task, because Uzbekistan’s logistics are expensive and complicated. These products are classified as perishable, and their quality leaves much to be desired from the point of view of countries that are more demanding than russia on the quality.

However, let’s get back to the critical import categories.

In terms of grain and grain processing products, Uzbekistan’s dependence on russia is not too high – the bulk of the products are imported from neighboring Kazakhstan. Small volumes are imported from Ukraine.

There are no problems with vegetable oils either – there is no ban on exports from the russian federation, dependence on supplies from Ukraine is also minor – within 1-2%. Of course, oils and grain may rise in price, but this is a global problem.

As for sugar, the problem is quite tangible. Imports from russia accounted for more than 60% of imports of sugar and confectionery, and now there is a direct ban on exports. The share of sugar imports from Ukraine was tangible – about 4%. Accordingly, the solution to the problem could be an increase in domestic processing of raw sugar, which can be imported from Brazil and other major supplying countries, but the main question here is whether the capacities of Uzbek enterprises allow this.

The general situation in terms of imports does not look threatening, although the increase in food prices is undoubtedly causing serious concern among the population. According to analysts, the price increase may be much larger by the end of the year, as the world is still tapping into 2021 harvest stocks.

The exchange rate of the dollar and other currencies in relation to the Uzbek sum

In Uzbekistan, the exchange rate of the US dollar and other major currencies, except for the russian ruble, remained relatively stable until March 9. For example, from February 24 to March 9, the US dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan increased from 10 840 to 10 897 UZS per $1, that is, only 0.5%. Since the rate is set by the Central Bank, the regulator has apparently taken a wait-and-see position – the war could be short-term and then everything will return to normal. But the war dragged on, and the Central Bank began to gradually devalue the sum – from 9 to 15 March, the US dollar exchange rate increased from 10 897 to 11 033 UZS per $1, i.e. by 1.2% in a week.

However, this is a meager devaluation of the sum, given that in the second half of March and early April, the season for shipping early vegetables to foreign markets starts. The russian, Kazakh and Kyrgyz markets are the main ones, and their currencies have fallen significantly against the US dollar. In addition, shipments of dried fruits and vegetables, as well as frozen ones, continue and will continue. By that time there was an understanding that the war was entering a protracted phase, and the negotiations had not yet yielded visible results. From 15 to 18 March, the US dollar exchange rate rose sharply – from 11 033 to 11 572 UZS per $1, i.e. by 4.9% in 3 days.

Thus, from February 24 to March 18, 2022, the US dollar exchange rate in Uzbekistan increased from 10 840 to 11 572 UZS per $1, i.e. by 6.8%. But this is not enough to make Uzbek goods competitive in price in the main sales markets, where the devaluation was more significant. On the other hand, effective demand in the key sales markets, especially in russia, also fell sharply, so even with a sharp currency devaluation, it would not be easy to maintain high volumes of product exports. In addition, a sharper devaluation of the national currency of Uzbekistan could have a negative impact on inflation indicators.

Consumer sentiment in Uzbekistan and panic buying

During the audit of the stores of the supermarket chains in the capital of Uzbekistan, as well as in communication with the residents of the country, EastFruit experts did not notice any critical changes in consumer sentiment.

A short-term excitement arose due to a temporary ban on the supply of russian wheat and sugar, but the official authorities reacted almost immediately and reassured the population with statements that there would be no shortage of wheat and sugar in Uzbekistan! For example, wheat will be provided with local production plus imports from alternative suppliers, sugar will be bought from an alternative supplier – Brazil. Here is an example of a statement by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Nevertheless, there was an impact of such a ban on consumer sentiment. Some chains have introduced restrictions on the sale of sugar in one hand: in the “Basket” – 2 kg per person, “Macro” – 4 kg, but “Havas” sells 10 kg. In the Carrefour chain, people also freely buy 10 kg of sugar. The Kazakh chain “Magnum” even touted buyers during the celebration of Navruz by the fact that they had a lot of sugar at a bargain price.

Many older people made a stock of pasta, cereals and other essential products just in case, but this did not have a critical impact on the provision of stores with goods, but rather contributed to a short-term increase in sales.

Otherwise, there are no changes in consumer sentiment in the capital of Uzbekistan, including excitement or panic.

The range of food in supermarkets in Uzbekistan and the structure of crops

Changes in the range of vegetables and fruits, other food products, as well as other categories – including household chemicals, medicines and other essential goods, are currently not observed in Uzbekistan.

Similarly, no intentions to change the structure of sown areas in Uzbekistan have been noted so far. Farmers are more concerned about the impact of weather in March 2022 on their crops than any possible food shortages.

Remittances from migrants  

Money transfers from labor migrants can be problematic. The impact of the war in Ukraine on the volume of cross-border transfers to Uzbekistan from labor migrants can be much more negative now than during the COVID-19 pandemic, when a large part of labor migrants “stayed at home”.

Since about 75-80% of labor migrants’ remittances come from russia (65-70%) and Kazakhstan (7-10%), the impact will have two aspects. First, the depreciation of the russian ruble automatically reduced the income of “russian” labor migrants by 25–30% in US dollars, and that of “Kazakh” migrants by about 15–18% in US dollars. Even without taking into account other factors, the devaluation of the russian ruble and the Kazakh tenge is already leading to a significant decrease in the volume of remittances from these countries.

The second point is a severe deterioration in the economic situation in russia and, as a result, in Kazakhstan, too, since the economy of the latter is closely interconnected with the russian economy. The consequences for Uzbek labor migrants are an increase in unemployment in russia, a sharp reduction in demand for foreign labor, and, most likely, a decrease in wages of migrants. All this leads to a reduction in the number of labor migrants, to a greater extent in russia and probably to a lesser extent in Kazakhstan, as well as a decrease in their income.

In early March, the Agency for External Labor Migration conducted an anonymous survey among labor migrants on its official Telegram channel.

The respondents were asked the question: “Do you plan to return to Uzbekistan from russia in the nearest future?“. Four response options were then offered, and the results are as follows:

As of March 18, 2022, 13 600 respondents participated in the survey.

As can be seen from the table, so far only 35% of respondents are firmly convinced to continue their work; 24% may return if the russian ruble continues to depreciate; and 41% of respondents want to return to Uzbekistan due to a sharp decrease in income due to the devaluation of the ruble or because of the loss of a job. According to various estimates, there are 1.5-2.0 million labor migrants from Uzbekistan in russia.

If we sum up these two aspects (devaluation of the russian ruble and Kazakhstani tenge + deterioration of the economic situation, first of all in the russian and then Kazakhstani economy), we can imagine how the total volume of remittances to Uzbekistan can decrease.

For your information, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the volume of receipts through the international money transfer systems for 12 months of 2021 amounted to $8.1 billion, which is 34% more than in 2020 and 2019. According to rough estimates, 65-70% of this amount comes from russia – about $5.5 billion and 7-10% from Kazakhstan – about $650 million.

This is a serious inflow for the economy of Uzbekistan and how much it will decrease in 2022 is a big question. The first results will be visible in the 1st quarter of 2022, and the fullest effect will be seen in the 2nd quarter of 2022. Even if revenues are reduced by a third at the end of the year, which is quite likely, Uzbekistan will not immediately get $2.7 billion.

This is equivalent to the total absence of exports of fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan for three years! Accordingly, this will seriously affect all other segments of the country’s economy.

In terms of estimates, the World Bank forecasts a 21% decline in remittances to Uzbekistan, but this forecast was released before a survey of labor migrants on plans to return to Uzbekistan from russia. Therefore, taking into account the results of this survey – that is, the current sentiment of Uzbek labor migrants, this assessment can be adjusted towards a more negative impact.

By the way, for the convenience of migrants and their relatives, all banks in Uzbekistan buy and sell the russian ruble now, since russia itself has an acute shortage of foreign currency in cash. This alleviates some of the problems, but does not solve them.

State regulation

The first measures to regulate prices are taken by the government in relation to sugar. In some regions, its prices even rose to 20 000 UZS/kg. Prices for buckwheat, which was also mainly imported from the russian federation, increased significantly.

Also, the government of Uzbekistan is now trying to intensify trade with Asian countries, in particular with Pakistan, Iran, India and China, in order to reduce trade dependence on supplies from russia. In addition to potatoes, they have already begun to buy meat from Pakistan.

We hope that this will also expand the possibilities for exporting fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan in 2022.

Conclusions   

The situation in the food market in Uzbekistan remains stable at the moment, but we should expect an increase in inflation in the country and a deterioration in the overall macroeconomic situation due to a decrease in remittances from labor migrants. Also, food prices are likely to keep rising in the coming months affecting the access of the country’s poorest residents to the minimum set of food calories. The situation may worsen if many labor migrants from russia and Kazakhstan return in the event of a job loss, as they will also want to buy a food basket that has risen in price. This will lead to the need to increase imports while reducing incomes.

There is also concern about the prospect of exporting fruits and vegetables to the markets of russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where there is a decrease in the level of incomes of the population and the devaluation of local currencies. This may lead to a decrease in the income of the country’s farmers and the curtailment of investment projects in this area.

The crises with high food and energy prices, complex and expensive logistics, and the growing number of trade barriers in the world are likely to persist for several years and will have a global nature.

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Turns out Georgia does love table grapes https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/turns-out-georgia-does-love-table-grapes/ https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/turns-out-georgia-does-love-table-grapes/#respond Thu, 03 Feb 2022 10:22:07 +0000 https://east-fruit.ru/?p=98994 EastFruit analysts have found that table grapes are becoming increasingly popular among Georgian consumers. The country imported 300 tonnes of table grapes in January 2022. They ranked 8th in terms of import value among other fruits, vegetables and nuts. Imports of table grapes in January this year are on average 80% higher than January...

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EastFruit analysts have found that table grapes are becoming increasingly popular among Georgian consumers. The country imported 300 tonnes of table grapes in January 2022. They ranked 8th in terms of import value among other fruits, vegetables and nuts.

Imports of table grapes in January this year are on average 80% higher than January imports over the past 9 years. 95% of imported table grapes came from Armenia, 5% from Turkey. Imports usually peak in December, and this season, December imports were also the highest at 600 tonnes.

Noteworthy, Georgia has imported just over 2 000 tonnes of table grapes over the past 12 months. This is also the highest volume for the period, nearly twice the average for the same period since 2014. Furthermore, imports over the past 12 months have doubled exports, even though exports are also record-breaking.

While local production is taking its first serious steps, it is export-oriented. Earlier, EastFruit wrote about a major breakthrough in the exports of Georgian table grapes. Now the data tells us that table grapes can also be sold domestically in quite large volumes. Local demand is growing, which is good news for producers.

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Georgia risks losing more than $80 million on hazelnuts exports https://east-fruit.ru/en/horticulture-market/market-reviews/georgia-risks-losing-more-than-80-million-on-the-export-of-hazelnuts/ https://east-fruit.ru/en/horticulture-market/market-reviews/georgia-risks-losing-more-than-80-million-on-the-export-of-hazelnuts/#comments Fri, 02 Apr 2021 03:00:17 +0000 https://east-fruit.ru/?p=72739 EastFruit analysts made an in-depth analysis of the quality of hazelnuts in Georgia and its impact on exports, exporters’ revenue and even the country’s reputation. Although this material is devoted to Georgia and hazelnuts, many countries, exporters of fruit and vegetables in our region will be able to find analogies...

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EastFruit analysts made an in-depth analysis of the quality of hazelnuts in Georgia and its impact on exports, exporters’ revenue and even the country’s reputation. Although this material is devoted to Georgia and hazelnuts, many countries, exporters of fruit and vegetables in our region will be able to find analogies in it with other nuts, fruit and vegetable products.

Georgia is one of the TOP-5 exporters of hazelnuts in the world, although a few years ago it was its second largest exporter, but sharply deteriorated its position due to the invasion of the marble bug and increased competition from other exporters. By the way, we recently published an analysis of trends in the global hazelnut market – you can read it here.

Why hazelnuts became the main export position of the agricultural business in Georgia? Suitable soil and climatic conditions for growing hazelnuts, a favorable investment climate, trade agreements, in particular free trade regime with the EU, access to the sea and transport infrastructure have created excellent opportunities for the stable development of the sector. As a result, hazelnut cultivation in Georgia has become a lucrative business for both small producers and large international companies as Ferrero in 2007, Olam in 2016 and Camille Bloch in 2020 used these opportunities.

Domestic consumption of hazelnuts in Georgia is insignificant, therefore, production is aimed at international markets. In other words, the Georgian market directly depends on the world market, which, by the way, has recently seen a growing demand for quality.

Data source: Trademap

Hazelnuts brought Georgia more than $80 million of export revenue in 2020, but it has significant potential for further development. Just a few years ago (until 2017), Georgia earned more than $170 million from the export of hazelnut kernels, but export volumes decreased due to the invasion of the marble bug, which the industry has been fighting for several years in an organized manner. More than 70% of Georgian hazelnuts is exported to the EU countries. At the same time, in 2020 we observed more than twofold increase in the export of hazelnuts from Georgia to Russia.

Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Georgia is one of the few leading exporters who consistently sell hazelnuts at prices below the average world price. Over the past 8 years, Georgia has exported hazelnuts on average 13% ($960 per ton) cheaper than the average world price. In comparison, a relatively new producer of hazelnuts on the world map, Chile, is already exporting hazelnuts at $2,000 per ton more than the world average.

Data source: Trademap

The trend of relatively low export prices for Georgian hazelnuts has been observed for about 20 years – as we can see since 2001, the export price of Georgian hazelnuts was higher than the average world price only in 2014 (in the graph, the difference is calculated as the average world price minus the export price from Georgia).

The sector participants believe that the main reason for the low prices for Georgian nuts is the poor quality of hazelnuts, which was further exacerbated after the spread of the pest in 2016. Accordingly, the market reacted immediately – the gap between the prices of Georgian nuts in comparison with the average world price doubled after 2016.

Data source: Trademap

Latent rot, acidity and aflatoxins are the main problems Georgian exporters face. Georgia, which accounts for 8% of world exports, has already overtaken Turkey, which accounts for 65% of world exports, in terms of returns of hazelnut consignments from EU countries due to the high concentration of aflatoxins. Therefore, the situation is very alarming.

Data source: European Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

Each return of an export consignment is not only a loss for the exporter, but also a threat to the country’s reputation, Maya Mikava, who has been exporting Georgian hazelnuts for over 10 years, said. In her opinion, testing for aflatoxin should be mandatory for all export consignments, on the same principle as the HACCP system for processing enterprises, which is mandatory since 2018. Now Georgian producers do such an analysis mainly at the request of European customers. The motivation for additional analyses of the exported hazelnuts creates the cost risks associated with the return transportation of the rejected lot, which the exporter must pay in case of return, not to mention the disposal of the entire lot. But despite it, four batches of hazelnuts have already been returned to Georgia from the EU in 2021.

Mamuka Beriashvili, the owner of NutsGe, explains the current situation by the inexperience and weak organizational structure of some exporting companies that do not have qualified quality specialists. Trying to make pennies on one-off batches, these companies risk everything, including the reputation of the whole country: “There is fierce competition for high-quality raw materials among nearly 200 processors who work in Georgia, but despite this, all nuts are sold. This does not motivate farmers to achieve better quality indicators. I think that Georgian hazelnuts can be sold at a higher price, but because of not knowing market mechanisms, we reach a stalemate. There are very few Georgian exporters who track world market trends and not only for hazelnuts, but also for other nuts – almonds and cashews, which are competitors of hazelnuts.”

According to Mr. Beriashvili, such a strategically important industry should be better regulated like wine production, where the state carefully monitors the origin and quality of raw materials and controls the compliance of the final product with the highest standards. “I believe that focusing on quality, not quantity, should be a fundamental strategy for the development of the industry. There are examples of neighboring countries that monitor the quality of hazelnuts at the state level. In addition to control, the introduction of quality standards should be stimulated by financing, so that banks offer better lending conditions to export companies that have, for instance, the ISO 9001: 2015 system,” Beriashivili continues.

Due to the inability to ensure consistent product quality, Georgian producers are forced to work mainly with intermediaries who diversify the risks of suppliers from Turkey, the world’s main producer. Thus, Georgian exporters cannot influence the market and are forced to agree to the terms and relatively low prices.

As a result, Georgia loses millions of dollars in potential export revenues. If exporters could establish business relations directly with European customers which would be possible by ensuring high quality, even considering current export volumes, the additional revenue from the kernel exports would bring the country’s economy more than $12 million. If according to the estimates of the Georgian Hazelnut Growers Association (GHGA) the annual exports of hazelnuts can be increased to 100 thousand tons over the next three years, the revenue would amount to more than $630 million. And this is in the case of exports at an average world price. But one could aim at a higher price, given the access to the markets of both Russia and the European Union!

However, if things move as they do now, Georgia is likely to lose $81 million, with its 100 thousand tons exports, due to the poor quality of hazelnuts. This is a very conservative estimate that does not take into account the factor of a constant decrease in the demand for low-quality hazelnuts and an increase in the supply of high-quality hazelnuts. As we have already mentioned, Chile is actively increasing its exports. The USA is even more actively involved in this market, also focusing on premium quality products.

Therefore, when planning to increase the production of hazelnuts, Georgian producers and processors must take into account the new realities of the world market.

For reference:

The quality indicators of hazelnuts are determined by the internationally recognized food quality and safety standards OECD, CODEX (Codex Alimentarius) and UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). The latter has two standards for hazelnuts – the DDP – 03 standard for inshell hazelnuts and the DDP – 04 standard for hazelnut kernels. According to these documents, the minimum quality requirements can be summarized as follows: intact, clean, sufficiently developed, free from stains, live pests, damage, mold, rancidity, moisture and foreign odor; humidity should not exceed 6.0%.

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Avocados on the rise in Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Georgia https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/avocados-on-the-rise-in-ukraine-uzbekistan-moldova-tajikistan-and-georgia/ https://east-fruit.ru/en/news/avocados-on-the-rise-in-ukraine-uzbekistan-moldova-tajikistan-and-georgia/#respond Sun, 13 Dec 2020 06:30:27 +0000 https://east-fruit.ru/?p=65407 Avocados were included for the first time in EastFruit‘s retail audit of supermarket fruit and vegetable departments, which took place in the nine largest cities of five countries on November 24-25, 2020. The main reason for the inclusion of this fruit was because it has shown very high growth rates...

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Avocados were included for the first time in EastFruit‘s retail audit of supermarket fruit and vegetable departments, which took place in the nine largest cities of five countries on November 24-25, 2020. The main reason for the inclusion of this fruit was because it has shown very high growth rates in world trade in recent years.

“Now many people talk about the phenomenon of growth in world sales of fresh berries, but berries grow by 7-8% per year. Avocados grow by 17.9% per year, more than twice as fast! If I predict that the volume of world trade in avocados will reach the volume of world trade in all types of fresh apples by 2022, I think many, especially in our region, will be greatly surprised. Yet, this is very likely. Now, the world trade in apples is on a downward trend, and avocados in 2019 were exported only 11.5% less than apples,” explains Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“That is why we decided to add avocado to our regular international audit of supermarket fruit and vegetable departments. After all, if in our region the consumption of avocados is not yet high, this only speaks of the prospects for growth in its sales,” explains the FAO expert.

Were avocados found in the stores of the main retail chains of Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Georgia, and Tajikistan during the audit?

You will be surprised – avocados were found in 91% out of 139 stores of various formats visited by our auditors! In the graph below, this was what the avocado penetration rate looked like in the chain stores of the region where EastFruit operates.

It is obvious from the graph above that avocados are most popular in Ukraine (Kyiv and Odesa at 100%, Dnipro at 94%), where nearly all stores have at least one variety of this fruit, but often several. Hass avocados are very popular in Ukraine, which is almost unavailable in Central Asian countries. Unlike other avocados, Hass takes on a very dark brown almost black skin tone when fully ripe while other common varieties have different shades of green.

Hass tends to be juicier and tastier. The soft flesh inside the Hass avocado even has a slightly sweet taste. It can be spread on bread for delicious sandwiches, especially when lightly sprinkled with salt, pepper, and lemon juice. It is also used in a wide variety of salads, sauces, and even desserts. Hass avocados are more expensive than regular green avocados. All avocado varieties are sold by the piece as a rule in our region.

Read also: Avocado consumption explosion expected in the world in the next 6-8 years

The popularity of avocados, especially the Hass variety, is due not so much to its taste as to the global interest in proper nutrition and leading a healthy lifestyle. In this sense, few other products can compare with avocados, which is why many classify the avocado as a superfood. We are not going to list all of the positive dietary benefits of avocados since this information is easy to find on the web, but it is important to note that this trend has already reached our countries and their market penetration is easy to track on our graph.

The presence of avocados in Moldova was almost on a par with Ukraine. 95% of stores in Chisinau offer this fruit. However, they are mainly offered in the green avocado variety only.

Uzbekistan is a pleasant surprise with more than half of the supermarkets selling avocados. Also, more than half of the Tajikistan markets in Khujand, but slightly less than in Tashkent, offer these fruits. In Dushanbe, only half of the supermarkets sell this exotic product.

Unexpectedly, Georgia, which is generally quite conservative in food preferences, is among the outsiders in terms of avocado penetration. Avocados are considered very exotic and available only in 43% of Tbilisi supermarkets and 33% of Kutaisi supermarkets.

How much do avocados cost? Where is the cheapest place to buy an avocado? See the graph below!

It turns out that the lowest average avocado price as of November 24-25, 2020, was in Chisinau, Moldova at $5.82 per kg. In Tashkent, where avocados were the most expensive, you will have to pay three times more at $14.77 per kg. Tajikistan was slightly cheaper, but not by much. In Georgia where avocados are the least popular, prices for them were relatively low, almost at the same level as in Moldova. Avocados in Ukraine were slightly more expensive, but in this case, Hass sometimes occurred in our monitoring for lack of cheaper versions in the store so comparisons could not be absolutely correct.

Where are avocados grown and who supplies them to our countries?

Mexico is the world leader in terms of avocado exports. Also, this country takes advantage of its proximity to the US market. Supplies of avocados go mainly there controlling almost half (45%) of all world avocado exports! However, Mexican avocados are also actively exported to Europe and most other countries of the world. Chile and Peru as well as Kenya, France, Spain, and even Israel are also rapidly increasing their exports of avocado!

Avocados usually travel to Central Asian countries from the Netherlands. This country is one of the world’s leaders in exports even though it does not grow avocados. These are usually re-exports from other countries. However, some avocados are also supplied to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan directly from producing countries such as Peru, Israel, South Africa, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Turkey.

Ukraine and Moldova also prefer to import avocados in mix deliveries from the Netherlands. However, other direct suppliers like Spain, Israel, and Kenya follow the Netherlands. Georgia, in addition to the Netherlands, buys small volumes of avocados from Turkey and Uganda.

How many avocados are imported to countries of the EastFruit region?

Total imports of avocados are about 9,000-10,000 tons per year and growing rapidly. In 2019, it nearly doubled compared to 2018 and reached $23 million. The leading country is Ukraine, which accounts for more than $20 million in avocado imports. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan import the least of these fruits.

The enormous and growing popularity of avocados has been overshadowed by only one factor – high water consumption of these fruits. “The negative impact of industrial avocado cultivation on the environment is of serious concern to environmentalists. This includes deforestation to make way for new avocado plantations and a decrease in freshwater supplies due to its massive use for irrigating avocado gardens. Therefore, some restaurants in developed countries even actively advertise the rejection of avocados in their recipes in order to neutralize the negative impact on the environment from growing avocados,” explains Andriy Yarmak.

However, not all consumers are joining such initiatives as evidenced by the very rapid growth of the global avocado trade. In addition, many farmers in tropical countries with adequate water supplies are also beginning to take an interest in growing avocados instead of other traditional crops. Who knows, maybe the first avocado plantations will soon appear in our region?

Сообщение Avocados on the rise in Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Georgia появились сначала на EastFruit.

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