A couple of weeks ago, EastFruit wrote about the first batches of new crop carrots available in the wholesale markets of the capital of Uzbekistan. The supply volumes of early carrots from the 2022 harvest in the wholesale markets were small at that time.

However, the supply of early carrots has increased significantly over these weeks, and prices have almost halved. From March 25 to April 8, 2022, the average wholesale prices for carrots of the new harvest decreased from 14 000 to 8 000 UZS/kg (from $1.22 to $0.70), i.e. by 43%. Moreover, as of April 8, 2022, their wholesale prices were 80% lower than on the same date last year.

Meanwhile, wholesale prices for last year’s carrots in Uzbekistan have been growing for the fourth week in a row and have increased by 80% over the past month. From March 11 to April 8, 2022, the average wholesale prices for last year’s carrots increased from 2 500 to 4 500 UZS/kg ($0.23 to $0.40). If we compare current prices with last year’s levels, the average wholesale prices on April 8, 2022 were 1.8 times higher than on the same date in 2021.

According to EastFruit analysts, one of the reasons for the price increase for last year’s carrots is the increase in their prices on the russian market. From March 11 to April 8, 2022, the average wholesale prices for carrots of the last year’s harvest in the russian market increased from $0.25 to $0.68. And the gap between wholesale prices in the russian and Uzbek markets has grown significantly, which in turn stimulates carrot exports to russia.

Сообщение Early carrots are rapidly getting cheaper, and last year’s carrots prices are increasing in Uzbekistan появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to the daily monitoring of the EastFruit project, interruptions in the supply of fresh fruits and vegetables throughout Ukraine, due to hostilities in part of the country, have a large impact on the level of wholesale and retail prices in the fruit and vegetable segment on the Polish market. In particular, Polish producers report that carrot prices have risen significantly this week.

Today, most Polish export-oriented companies deliver carrots to Ukraine, while their supply on the Polish market is also rapidly declining, causing a significant increase in prices in this segment.

Read also: Food security and agricultural sector of Ukraine during the war

Most Polish grower currently do not sell carrots cheaper than $0.24-0.31/kg, which is on average 22% more expensive than last week.

As a result of this increase, carrot prices on the Polish market are on average 14% higher than at the end of March last year. Moreover, most market players are sure that prices in the segment will keep rising, as there is already a shortage of carrots on the market, while both domestic and export demand remains quite high.

Сообщение Exports of carrots to Ukraine caused a price increase on the Polish market появились сначала на EastFruit.

Wholesale prices for carrots of last year’s harvest in Uzbekistan decreased by 25% last week and remain at this level. However, current prices remain much higher compared to last year’s levels, according to EastFruit specialists.

According to EastFruit price monitoring data, from February 18 to February 25, 2022, the average wholesale prices for last year’s carrots decreased from 4 000 to 3 000 UZS/kg (from $0.37 to $0.28) and remain at this level this week. The difference between current prices and the levels of previous years remains large. As of March 4, 2022, the average wholesale price for last year’s carrots is 3 000 UZS/kg ($0.28), which is twice higher than on the same date in 2021.

However, taking into account the decrease in wholesale prices by 25%, prices for carrots of last year’s crop in Uzbekistan turned out to be at an average level among the countries of the region, where EastFruit monitors wholesale prices for fruits and vegetables.

Сообщение Carrots of last year’s harvest fell in price by 25% in Uzbekistan появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, Ukraine exported for the first time a commercial batch of carrots to the Saudi Arabian market in 2021. Twenty-four tonnes of carrots were sent from Ukraine to Saudi Arabia in sea containers in September 2021. By the way, we wrote about the prospects for exporting carrots to Saudi Arabia and other countries of the Middle East three years ago.

“The main problem of the Ukrainian vegetable sector is the lack of orientation on the needs of export markets. Since local supermarkets and wholesalers continue to sell vegetables of extremely low quality, it is easier and more convenient for vegetable growers in Ukraine – they do not have to invest in more efficient growing technologies, in expensive modern equipment for handling, cooling, sorting and packaging vegetables. However, the result is periodic price collapses, when the supply is even slightly higher than the needs of the domestic market, and income per hectare is relatively low. Therefore, even trial deliveries of commercial batches of fresh vegetables to distant markets are an important experience and an important signal to market participants that this is possible,” Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), said.

In total, Ukraine increased exports of carrots by almost 3 times to 11 600 tonnes in 2021. Of course, this is a meager volume compared to what Ukraine could export if it produced export-grade carrots and promoted their exports.

“The countries of the Middle East annually import over 300 000 tonnes of fresh carrots. The UAE imports about 100 000 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia – from 50 000 to 60 000 tonnes. Kuwait and Qatar import 20 000 tonnes of carrots a year. This is a huge market that could provide Ukrainian vegetable growing with a good level of stability. At the same time, it would allow to reduce logistics costs due to the growth in supply volumes and provide further access to the supply of vegetables and potatoes to the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, as was the case with apple exports from Ukraine,” — adds Andriy Yarmak.

In the meantime, the main market for Ukrainian carrots in 2021 was Belarus, which accounted for about 68% of all carrot exports. Ukrainian suppliers also managed to double the export of carrots to Romania, where more than 2 500 tonnes were sent over the year. Moldova and Kazakhstan were the second and third among the largest buyers of Ukrainian carrots with smaller but significant volumes.

Сообщение Ukraine exported carrots to Saudi Arabia for the first time появились сначала на EastFruit.

Prices for carrots in Ukraine began to rise on the eve of the New Year holidays. Analysts of the EastFruit project report that the trade is also gradually intensifying in the last 2 weeks. Experts explain the increase in carrot prices by the fact that many local producers are running out of stocks of high-quality carrots, while wholesale companies and retail chains have begun to actively replenish their carrot stocks after the New Year holidays.

According to the daily monitoring of the project, the prices for carrots in Ukraine vary within 7-11 UAH/kg ($0.25-0.40/kg) today, depending on the quality, batch size and region of production. Thus, carrots have risen in price by an average of 19% since the end of December last year.

Market participants explain the price rise in this segment by a noticeable reduction in carrot supply on the market. To date, the sales of carrots from storages without cooling equipment have been mostly completed. The supply of substandard carrots has also noticeably decreased, which in turn allowed producers to raise prices for high-quality ones.

Note that as a result of the rise in prices, carrots in Ukraine are on average 2.2 times more expensive today than in the same period last year. Nevertheless, most of the key market players agree that the current price increase is temporary, and a bigger rise in prices is expected by the end of the season.

Сообщение Carrots in Ukraine are twice as expensive as a year ago появились сначала на EastFruit.

What was 2021 for the participants of the produce business of Uzbekistan and what significant events can be noted?

Like 2020, this year turned out to be difficult for the fruit and vegetable sector of the country, especially for the fruit business. Weather anomalies in winter and frosts in early spring severely damaged the harvest of many stone fruits. As a result, their prices were high, leading to a decrease in export volumes and domestic consumption.

But vegetable growers are unlikely to complain: pricey carrots, record-high cabbage, beet and onion prices helped them earn good money with the growth of export volumes. Also, Uzbekistan attracted great attention to the record volume of its potato imports, becoming one of the global leaders in it.

We also noted new interesting trends in the exports of fruit and vegetables, the adoption of a large-scale program to support the country’s fruit and vegetable industry, the continuing problems of the greenhouse business and the active expansion of foreign retailers into the vacant market of Uzbekistan. Do not forget about niche crops and new opportunities, especially in the context of record high berry prices!

Since the material is large, the EastFruit experts divided it into two parts. The first part includes the TOP-5 events and the second part will include another 5 important events.

1. Weather anomalies in winter and early spring

Undoubtedly, the weather anomalies became the greatest event that influenced all the aspects of vegetable, fruit and nut production in Uzbekistan, trade and processing, and, of course, consumers.

Starting from the first month of 2021, the weather presented unpleasant surprises for growers in Uzbekistan. The unusually warm weather at the end of January caused a too early awakening of nature – almonds, apricots and cherries blossomed in the southern and central part of Uzbekistan in the 2-4 weeks of February. This was the first weather surprise that did not bode well, since the average temperature throughout the year is relatively constant. In other words, such anomalous warming increased the likelihood of a sharp cold snap or frost at the beginning of spring.

The next surprise was not long in coming – a cold anticyclone from the Volga region at the end of February. It was +26 in the afternoon and +18 at night in the capital of Uzbekistan at the peak of blooming of stone fruits (February 15-20), but in just a week the air temperatures dropped to -5 in the afternoon and -9 at night. This weather lasted 2-3 days, and it was enough to ruin the flowers on the trees. EastFruit surveyed experienced farmers from different regions of the country and published preliminary estimates of the damage from these frosts.

The third surprise and the second frost occurred after two weeks of warming since the first frost in late February. On March 13, a new cold cyclone came from the north. On March 14, the air temperature dropped sharply throughout the country, with the exception of the Fergana Valley. In Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, some areas of Navoi and Samarkand regions, snowfall and strong wind even caused damage to power lines. As a result, the stone fruit harvest in the central and middle zone of the country was again hit by the second frost. Uzbek EastFruit team re-conducted the survey to assess the damage to future harvests of stone fruit and almonds. This time, all regions were covered and more than 30 farmers from different regions of Uzbekistan were interviewed, which together form 95% of the total production of fruits and berries in the republic. Estimates of losses of apricots, cherries, peaches, plums and almonds by regions of the country were published at the end of March 2021.

After the frost, growers often began to contact us with a request to share the global experience in frost protection. Therefore, we have prepared a substantial material “How to protect your orchards and vineyards from frosts? Protection methods, effectiveness, cost and availability” and even found suppliers of these solutions.

2. Imports of potatoes to Uzbekistan exceeded half a million tonnes for the first time

 From early January to December 20, 2021, Uzbekistan imported 516.2 thousand tonnes of potatoes, which is 23% more than total imports in 2020. The previous record was set last year: according to EastFruit analysts, the imports of potatoes to Uzbekistan in 2020 amounted to 421 thousand tonnes.

Potatoes have become the main import commodity in Uzbekistan’s fruit and vegetable sector over the past few years. Until 2016, the annual import volume of potatoes did not exceed 50 thousand tonnes per year, and in 2017 it amounted to 194 thousand tonnes. Accordingly, from 2017 to 2021, the volume of imports increased 2.7 times.

By the way, such  high imports in 2021 can be considered an achievement, because Uzbekistan was threatened by an acute shortage of potatoes because of a sharp decline in production in Russia and a number of other reasons. The situation can be considered controllable now, and prices have been stabilized. However, they are 56% higher than at the same time in 2021.

To reduce the volume of potato imports, the country plans to dramatically increase the area of ​​potato plantations next year. According to the National News Agency of Uzbekistan, the projected potato planting area in 2022 will amount to 122 thousand hectares, which is 40% more than in 2021. In accordance with the government decision on planting various crops on agricultural land, 86.5 thousand hectares were allocated for planting potatoes in 2021.

However, these plans are most likely not to come true. There is a shortage of planting material, since Uzbekistan cannot yet grow high-quality seed potatoes due to climatic features, and is forced to import them. Imported seed potatoes are too expensive, which makes commercial potatoes grown in Uzbekistan expensive, as well. At the same time, prices for seed potatoes in most countries of the world, from where Uzbekistan buys them (Russia, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, Germany and Pakistan), rose sharply in 2021. The cost of transporting has also increased. Thus, the big question is whether it will be possible to increase the area under potatoes by at least 1%.

In addition, in July 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture of Uzbekistan and the International Potato Center (CIP) launched a five-year program “Improving food security and climate resilience in Uzbekistan through breeding and seed production of potatoes and sweet potatoes”. The expected result of the program is an increase in the yield of potatoes produced in the republic by at least 30%.

Back in early 2021, EastFruit analysts studied the import of potatoes to Uzbekistan and explained why it will be extremely difficult for Uzbekistan to avoid the growth of potato imports in the coming years in an extensive article “Potatoes of Uzbekistan – what caused the high prices and can they be reduced in the future? ”. As you can see, analysts’ forecasts are coming true so far.

3. Removing the import duties on apples, pears, citrus fruits and other fruits

In October 2021, the government of Uzbekistan decided to stimulate the imports of a number of fruits, exempting their import from import duties. The list of such fruits included both widely consumed, such as fresh apples, pears and quinces, and exotic ones: bananas, plantains (fresh or dried), kiwi, fresh or dried citrus fruits, dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, guava, mango and mangosteen and fresh papaya. Prior to this decision, the imports of these fruits was subject to a customs duty rate of 10 to 20%, but not less than $0.2/kg.

The next day after the relevant decree of the government of Uzbekistan was issued, EastFruit published a material where experts analysed what it means for the country’s fruit business, whether it would harm local producers and how it would affect fruit prices and the volume of their trade.

A little more than two months have passed since the decision was announced by the government. From the list of fruits exempted from duty, EastFruit monitors wholesale prices for bananas, oranges, mandarins, apples and pears weekly. Therefore, we can partially assess the effectiveness of such a government decision.

Wholesale prices for orange in Uzbekistan are currently 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.5). This means that oranges in Uzbekistan are now 33% cheaper than on the same date in 2020. Considering the sharp increase in logistics costs over the past year, one might say the result exceeds all expectations and is very positive for the consumers of the country that cannot grow orange in large volumes due to climatic features.

Wholesale prices for mandarin as of December 24, 2021 are 11,000 UZS/kg ($1.0) and they are almost 2 times lower than on the same date in 2020! Wholesale prices for banana dropped to 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.5) and as of the end of December 2021 they were 11% lower than on the same date in 2020. In other words, the reduction in import duties has allowed Uzbek consumers to have better access to  fruits not grown in Uzbekistan at a much lower price.

As for apples and pears, the situation is completely opposite so far. From October 22 to December 24, 2021, average wholesale prices for apples increased by 40-64%. In terms of sorts, Renet Simerenko went up in price by 64%, Golden Delicious – by 60%, and Granny Smith – by 40%. As of the end of December 2021, apples were sold in Uzbekistan on average 2.3 times more expensive than at the end of December last year.

During the same period, average wholesale prices for pears increased by 25%. As of December 24, the average wholesale price for pears is 25,000 UZS/kg ($2.3), which is 25% higher than in 2020.

However, this does not mean that the zeroing of duties on the imports of these fruits in Uzbekistan did not work. If the duty had not been canceled, the prices for apples and pears would have been even higher. The main reason for the rise in prices was the weather anomalies described in the first paragraph of our review, that led to a decrease in domestic production. Imported apples are relatively expensive due to the increase in the cost of transportation by 2-3 times this year and the remoteness of Uzbekistan from the main centers of global apple production.

4. Expensive carrots in 2021

In Uzbekistan, the per capita consumption of carrots is higher than in the countries of Eastern Europe. The main reason is that carrots are an essential component of the most famous traditional Uzbek dish – plov. Although the cost of pilaf was determined by the prices of meat, rice and vegetable oil until 2021, with record-breaking high prices for carrots in 2021, their share in the cost of cooking pilaf has become much larger.

It all started with the boom in demand for carrots and beets in the Russian market, where they were jokingly called new symbols of wealth. Naturally, Russian importers started buying them in all neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan, causing the rapid rise in carrot prices in the domestic market. In a material published in June 2021 “Even the Uzbek pilaf is becoming more expensive due to high prices for carrots and beets in Russia”, we showed how the dynamics of carrot prices in Uzbekistan repeats the respective dynamics in Russia and in neighboring Tajikistan. The conclusion was obvious – since Russia is the largest and main export market for fruit and vegetables from Uzbekistan, the rise in prices for products in Russia is reflected in the growth in prices for the same goods in Uzbekistan.

However, the influence of foreign markets on the pricing of carrots in Uzbekistan was reduced to naught in the second half of July 2021, since the excitement had subsided by that time. On 16 July 2021, EastFruit analysts noted that the further dynamics of carrot prices in Uzbekistan would depend on the ratio of supply and demand in the domestic market, but wholesale prices continued to remain high and several times exceeded those in previous years.

Due to climatic peculiarities, carrots are sown and harvested in Uzbekistan 4 times a year: in March-April, May-June, July and in September-October. However, in 2021, even after the end of the third harvest (in July), carrot prices remained unprecedentedly high. They began to decline only in the third decade of August 2021, but the decline rate was slow and prices were still several times higher than last year’s.

In mid-October 2021, EastFruit wrote that carrot production in Uzbekistan could decrease in 2021, since frosts in early spring could affect the harvest of early carrots, and dry and hot summers could not but reduce the yield of mid-ripening and late-ripening carrots. According to analysts, such a sharp rise in carrot prices in Uzbekistan is most likely a combination of two factors: an increase in exports in the first half of the year and a decrease in carrot yields.

Prices decreased and the gap with last year’s levels narrowed only in the beginning of November 2021 when the harvest of late-ripening carrots ended. From 5 to 12 November 2021, the average wholesale prices for carrots decreased from 4,500 to 3,000 UZS/kg (from $0.42 to $0.28) and remain at this level until the end of December 2021. Nevertheless, wholesale carrots are still twice more expensive than in December 2020 and 3 times more expensive than in the same period in 2019. An increase in areas and production volumes in the carrot segment are expected next year. However, vegetable growers of Uzbekistan will add this season to their successes, as they made good money, and not only on carrots.

5. Successful year for onion and cabbage growers

The first lots of early winter onions became available on wholesale markets in the beginning of April, and in the same month, Russia experienced a shortage of high-quality onions from last year’s harvest. Russian supermarket chains have significantly reduced purchases of local onions due to their poor quality and were expecting the supply of high-quality newly harvested onions from Central Asian countries. Thus, the season of exports to the Russian market has started quite successfully for the onion producers of this region.

The season for selling winter onions in Russia began almost 2 weeks later than in 2020, which extended the period for shipping onions from Central Asia to the Russian market by another 2 weeks.

As statistics show, the season for exporting onions from Uzbekistan ends in July, but favorable conditions for Uzbek exporters in foreign markets allowed to extend the season until October in 2021. In particular, Uzbekistan exported 11.3 thousand tonnes of onions from August to October 2021. In total, onion exports from Uzbekistan reached 184.3 thousand tonnes from April to December 2021, which is almost 20% more than in the same period in 2020.

The developments on cabbage market were similar. In 2021, early cabbage appeared on markets and supermarkets in Uzbekistan in the second half of March. It is one of the most important products in the country’s exports, and the exports often start even before cabbage appears on the domestic market. The main importers are Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, where local cabbages ripen later.

Due to the cold spring of 2021 in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, the start of early cabbage harvesting shifted by an average of two weeks there. Therefore, Uzbekistan had two additional weeks for export. Back in April 2021, EastFruit analysts suggested that the exports volumes of early Uzbek cabbage may increase in 2021 and the decline in export volumes in May 2021 will be less dramatic compared to May 2020.

As a result, the exports of cabbage from Uzbekistan amounted to 67.5 thousand tonnes worth $10.2 million in March-May 2021, which is 30% more in volume than in the same period in 2020. According to preliminary data, Uzbekistan exported 81.3 thousand tonnes of white cabbage worth $12.4 million from March to December 2021, which is 35% more in kind than in March-December 2020.

Note that the forecast for cabbage prices and the possibilities of its export remains very favorable for vegetable growers and traders in Uzbekistan, because of an acute shortage of cabbage in Russia.

Сообщение Uzbekistan: TOP-10 Fruit and Vegetable Events of 2021 (Part I) появились сначала на EastFruit.

Prices for carrots in Ukraine have increased this week, according to analysts of the EastFruit project. According to key market players, the rise in prices is due to the intensification of trade, since wholesale companies and retail chains have started stocking for the New Year holidays.

Today, growers in the main production regions ship high-quality carrots at 6-8 UAH/kg ($0.22-0.29/kg), which is on average 17% more expensive than at the end of the last week. It is worth noting that most farms have suspended sales of carrots in anticipation of an even greater rise in prices and laid the bulk for storage. They offer only surplus for sale, and as a result, the supply on the market has slightly decreased. This, in turn, contributed to the growth of selling prices in this segment.

Read also: Spring frosts, summer droughts and heavy  rains: Ukrainian farmers are looking for ways to tackle climate change

Note that the price of high-quality carrots in Ukraine is now two times higher on average than last year. Nonetheless, market participants do not exclude that the upward trend in prices may be a temporary phenomenon. In their opinion, a further price rise may encourage growers to start selling carrots from storage, which will lead to an increase in supplies and a decrease in prices.

Сообщение Carrot prices in Ukraine have doubled compared to last year появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to information communicated by the Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan, the production of vegetables and potatoes increased in the country in 2021. However, prices remain high. EastFruit figured out the reasons.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Tajikistan harvested 144 thousand tonnes more potatoes and more than 100 thousand tonnes more vegetables in 2021. Unfortunately, there is no breakdown by how much the production of each type of vegetables has grown, and this includes tubers, cabbage, and even tomatoes and cucumbers.

Now let’s see what the market thinks about production growth.

Potato

Potato prices in Tajikistan are currently at a record level for this period in recent years and continue to rise. Wholesale potatoes are now sold at 4.2 TJS per kg ($0.37 per kg), which is 1.5 times higher than at the same time in 2020 and 2.2 times higher than in 2019.

What is the reason for such a rapid rise in prices for potatoes in Tajikistan, if their production has increased? Recently, there were reports of increased demand for Tajik potatoes from Uzbekistan, where prices were at record highs. Therefore, the price rise may be partly due to the growth of exports, as potato prices in Uzbekistan have decreased this week, while in Tajikistan they have risen again. However, prices have been high for quite some time, and the official data on growth in potato production may be somewhat overestimated.

Onion

As of November 11, 2021, onion prices in Tajikistan in the wholesale trade are 1.6 TJS and are at the same level as on the same date in 2020. However, this price level is 1.5 times higher than in 2018-2019.

So far, no information has been received on the growth of onion exports from Tajikistan. Prices for Tajik onions are currently at about the same level as in Uzbekistan and have a slight upward trend. Uzbekistan already supplies onions to Ukraine, but Tajikistan cannot do this yet, as logistics are more expensive from Tajikistan. Thus, it is most likely that onion production, at least, did not decrease compared to 2020.

Carrot

Prices for carrots in Tajikistan are 30% higher than last year, but in 2018 they were higher than now. However, if production rose, prices should have been lower, provided there was no surge in domestic demand or exports.

However, prices in Tajikistan are much lower than in Uzbekistan – the difference is more than twofold. Moreover, both in Uzbekistan and in Tajikistan there is a tendency to reduce the price of carrots now. But in Russia and Belarus, prices are high and there are prospects for their growth. Therefore, it is possible that these countries will become importers of carrots from Central Asia.

Сообщение Tajikistan reports increase in potato and vegetable production, but prices are higher than a year ago появились сначала на EastFruit.

Over the past two months, the average wholesale prices for carrots in Uzbekistan have decreased by 38%, i.e. from 8,000 UZS/kg ($0.75) on August 12 to 5,000 UZS/kg ($0.47) on October 14, 2021, according to EastFruit price monitoring data. Nevertheless, the current price levels are almost 2.5 times higher than on the same date in 2020, and 3.5 times higher than on the same date in 2019, EastFruit experts note. Meanwhile, the harvesting of late-ripening carrots, which are usually harvested in Uzbekistan from September to the end of October, is to finish in about two weeks.

The record high prices for carrots in Uzbekistan in May and June 2021 were due to their rush demand in foreign markets, but this influence reduced in the second half of July, since the craze had already died down by that time. EastFruit analysts noted on July 16, 2021 that the further dynamics of carrot prices in Uzbekistan will depend on the ratio of supply and demand in the domestic market, but wholesale prices remained high and several times exceeded the levels of previous years.

As of August 20, 2021, the average wholesale prices for carrots were about 3.5 times higher than on the same date in 2019-2020, and 1.5 to 3 times higher compared to countries where wholesale prices for fruits and vegetables are monitored by EastFruit.

To understand the pricing of carrots in Uzbekistan, it is worth recalling that due to climatic conditions, carrots are sown and harvested in Uzbekistan four times a year:

– in November-December, winter carrots are sown and then harvested in March-April of the next year;

– in February-March, early carrots are sown, the harvest of which ripens in May-June;

– in April-May, mid-ripening carrots are sown and harvested in the middle of summer;

– in June-July, late-ripening carrots are sown and harvested in September-October.

However, after the end of the third harvest and even two weeks before the end of the fourth in 2021, the prices remain unprecedentedly high – several times higher than on the same date in previous years.

As for the influence of foreign markets and an increase in the export of carrots, according to the Customs Committee of the republic, the volume of carrot exports from Uzbekistan in 9 months of 2021 amounted to 48.1 thousand tons, which is 6.8 thousand tons or 16 % more than in the same period in 2020. It is unlikely that the only factor in increasing exports by 16% can explain the average wholesale prices this year being 2.5 times higher than last year.

Accordingly, the reasons for the rise in prices lie either in the growth in demand for carrots in Uzbekistan, which is very unlikely, or in a decrease in the volume of its production. Unfortunately, there are no reliable official estimates of the volume of carrot production in Uzbekistan in 2021. However, production could indeed have decreased, as frosts in early spring could have affected the harvest of early carrots, and dry and hot summer, several degrees hotter than the average, could not but reduce the yield of mid- and late-ripening carrots.

Thus, such a sharp rise in carrot prices in Uzbekistan is most likely a combination of two factors: an increase in exports in the first half of the year and a decrease in carrot yields.

Therefore, wholesale prices for carrots in Uzbekistan are now 42% higher than in Russia. Accordingly, there is no exporting carrots to Russia.

By the way, Uzbekistan is the champion in the level of carrot prices among all nine countries of the region now, which means that it is time to consider imports. Notably, Uzbekistan has never imported carrots. Operational trade statistics show that the first imported carrots have already became available on the Uzbek market in the second half of 2021.

With today’s high prices for Uzbek carrots, imports look very attractive and economically feasible. For example, Uzbek entrepreneurs could make good money on the import of carrots from neighboring Tajikistan right now, where the wholesale price is three times lower. This would also relieve tension from the domestic carrot market, and exports can be resumed by the beginning of the spring harvest, since carrot prices are already high now in many countries of the region.

Сообщение Record high prices push Uzbekistan to import carrots for the first time появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, in the first eight months of 2021 Belarus imported a record volume of carrots for this period in recent years. In total, 9.2 thousand tons of carrots were imported, which is 4.7 times more than in the same period in 2020. Nevertheless, Belarus remained a net exporter of carrots, since exports significantly exceeded imports.

Why would Belarus import carrots if it itself exported them in large volumes? The answer should be sought in the structure of imports and exports of these goods.

Ukraine became the main supplier of carrots to the Belarusian market and supplied about 85% of all carrots. The peak of supplies fell on June 2021, when Belarus bought 4 thousand tons of carrots from Ukraine. Almost the entire volume of imports was made from April to July.

As you know, carrot prices were record-breaking at that time in Russia, and social networks were full of memes about the sky-high prices for carrots and beets in the country.

Another well-known fact is that Ukraine cannot supply carrots directly to Russia. Probably, Belarus helped here. As you can see on the EastFruit price monitoring chart, the difference in wholesale prices for carrots in Ukraine and Russia was quite high back in March 2021, but it increased sharply in April. In June it became almost threefold.

Naturally, 100% of the carrots exported from Belarus this year were sent to Russia. By the way, Belarus did not export a single kilogram of carrots to Ukraine and Moldova in the first eight months of 2021, unlike previous years.

The situation on the market has changed in the new season, after the start of the peak harvesting of carrots. Here prices in Belarus were already higher than in Russia. Therefore, it is possible that the import of carrots to Belarus from Ukraine in August 2021 was intended for the local market, because carrots on the Russian market were sold much cheaper than on the Belarusian one, and Ukraine still offered the lowest prices.

The market situation has leveled off by mid-October 2021 and the wholesale prices for carrots in Russia and Belarus are almost equal now. The price difference has significantly decreased, but Ukraine continues to offer cheaper carrots. The supply of carrots from Ukraine to Belarus was still very profitable and they were exported in September, according to trade sources.

Сообщение Belarus increased imports of carrots by almost 5 times in 2021, mainly from Ukraine появились сначала на EastFruit.