Incredibly high prices for cabbage in almost all countries of the region in recent months have been the subject of close attention of EastFruit analysts. However, market participants have had some hope for stabilization and even decrease of cabbage prices recently after a reported sharp increase in the area of early cabbage plantations in Uzbekistan and other countries of the region.

When will Uzbek cabbage become available on the regional market, and when will it reach Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and other countries of Eastern Europe? What will be the price of this cabbage? The EastFruit team in Uzbekistan analyzed the situation, and here is what we found out.

In the southernmost region of Uzbekistan – Surkhandarya region, white cabbage began to be harvested around mid-December and the harvesting continues now. However, this cabbage was sown in September, when no one expected such a rapid rise in prices, so the farmers left the area planted with it without any changes. Vegetable growers are very pleased – the demand for cabbage is just “crazy”. It is shipped from the fields at 4 000 UZS/kg ($0.37), which is about 9 times higher compared to the same period in 2021. For comparison, shipping prices for white cabbage in January-February 2021 did not exceed 400-500 UZS/kg ($0.04-0.05).

According to exporters, Uzbek cabbage is shipped mainly to Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, but they cannot fully satisfy demand, which leads to further price increases. According to market participants, the highest demand for cabbage is observed in Belarus.

At the same time, the planting of early cabbage is now in full swing, the harvest of which will start in the first half of March, provided there are no weather anomalies. The situation is completely different here. Almost all farmers confirm that the area planted with early cabbage has been dramatically expanded. Seed suppliers believe acreage could increase exponentially given record seed sales and shortages. But no one undertakes to forecast whether prices for cabbage in Uzbekistan itself will decrease.

On the one hand, the unprecedented growth in the production of early cabbage will lead to a sharp increase in supply. On the other hand, demand is now unusually high, and if we assume that stocks are even more depleted before the start of harvesting, then prices may also rise. It is important to take into account that Belarus recently decided to isolate itself from the EU market, and Russia did this many years ago, but still imported products from the EU through Belarus. However, the main channel for the supply of products from the EU to Russia is now closed, so Russia and Belarus have almost no other options for replenishing cabbage stocks, except for purchasing in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran and other distant countries. In this situation, Ukrainian farmers and traders will also prefer to export cabbage to the Belarusian market, which will also help maintain a high price level in the domestic market of the country.

In any case, the main conclusion is that farmers and other participants in the vegetable market of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, who have stocks of high-quality cabbage, may well have two more months of excess demand over supply. Some speculate that even wholesale prices for cabbage in Russia and Belarus could reach incredible levels of $1/kg.

We remind you that the early cabbage export season was also successful for Uzbek producers in 2021. Due to the cold spring of 2021 in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, the start of early cabbage harvesting in these countries has shifted by an average of two weeks. Therefore, Uzbek exporters have two additional weeks to export. As a result, from March to May 2021, the export of white cabbage from Uzbekistan amounted to 67 500 tonnes worth $10.2 million, which is 30% more in physical terms than in the same period in 2020.

Last week, EastFruit wrote about record export volumes of the main types of cabbage from Uzbekistan in January 2022. Compared to the same month in 2021, the volume of exports of cabbage increased by 2 times, cauliflower and broccoli – by almost 3 times, and Chinese cabbage – by almost 16 times!

Сообщение When will Uzbekistan supply the region with cabbage of new harvest and how much will it cost? появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to the EastFruit analytical group, in 2021 Uzbekistan was able to significantly increase the export of fresh white cabbage, as well as broccoli and cauliflower to Belarus. In the first 8 months of 2021, the export of Uzbek white cabbage reached a record 2.7 thousand tons, while the export of broccoli and cauliflower increased to a modest 57 tons, which, however, was also a new supply record.

Due to the warmer climate, Uzbekistan can start exporting young cabbage of a new crop as early as March – three months earlier than locally produced cabbage becomes available on the Belarusian market. Accordingly, bulk shipments of young white cabbage from Uzbekistan to Belarus began in March and peaked in April, when more than 1,000 tons were supplied. In April, broccoli with cauliflower was mainly supplied from Uzbekistan to Belarus.

We also note the growth of exports of table beets and onions grown in Uzbekistan to the Belarusian market this year. Uzbekistan exported 1.9 thousand tons of onions and 434 tons of beets. Exports of onions increased by 5% and beets – by 74%. However, the main reason for the sharp increase in demand for beets was the situation on the Russian market, where prices for this type of vegetables broke all records. Accordingly, Russia began to import beets and carrots from all countries in the region, incl. Central Asia and Belarus, which led to a domino effect, and prices for these products rose sharply in most countries that supplied root crops to Russia.

But exports of greenhouse tomatoes from Uzbekistan to Belarus have dropped by 31%. Here the situation was the opposite – Belarus itself increased both the production and export of this type of product, so its need for imports decreased significantly.

Сообщение Uzbekistan increases cabbage exports to Belarus in 2021 появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit, exporters from Uzbekistan have been actively increasing the supply and range of fruits and vegetables of the new harvest in the past two weeks. At the moment, Uzbekistan already exports seven items of fruits and vegetables harvested in 2021, apart from greenhouse tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers. Onions, white cabbage, Chinese cabbage, garlic, beetroot, and fruits – apricot and cherries are in demand in traditional foreign markets.

Which products, regardless the volume, are actually exported from Uzbekistan and where?

Judging by the requests for vehicles for transportation, the largest export volumes fall on the early Uzbek onions that are now transported from the southern region of Uzbekistan – the Surkhandarya region. An insignificant volume of onions is exported from the Syrdarya and Tashkent regions (middle of the country).

Uzbek onions are exported, as a rule, to Russian cities in the northern and central parts of the country – where up to 80% of all vehicles are booked. Ukraine and Belarus come second in the exports of early Uzbek onions, although it is difficult to imagine that Uzbek onions could compete in the Ukrainian market in terms of price, as price for quality onions in the country is smaller than the cost of transporting onions to Ukraine. Importers probably expect that onion prices in Ukraine increase significantly by the time of delivery. There are also shipments to Latvia and Moldova, where prices are also still low, but have started to increase.

As of May 5, 2021, exporters from Uzbekistan offer early onions at $ 0.15-0.16 per kg on FCA terms, Uzbekistan, although in neighboring Tajikistan the same products are sold twice as cheap.

It is still difficult to estimate the export volume of early onions from Uzbekistan, since the season for the export of early vegetables started just a few weeks ago. However, the potential and prospects for increasing their export remain highly doubtful this year. You can read about the main factors affecting the export volumes of early winter onions from Uzbekistan in the following article: “Should Uzbekistan continue expanding early onion production for exports? Pros and cons”.

In the second place vehicles are requested for transportation of early Uzbek cabbage, the export prospects of which seem more considerable. There are approximately three times less of such requests comparing to requests for transport for onions. The new harvest of cabbage is also shipped mainly from the south of the country – from the Surkhandarya region. However, unlike early onions, about 70% of early cabbage exported goes to Ukraine, and the rest is exported to Belarus, Russia and Latvia.

As of May 4-5, a new harvest of cabbage shipped from Uzbekistan is offered at the following prices: white cabbage – $ 0.2 per kg, Chinese cabbage – $ 0.5/kg, cauliflower – $ 0.5/kg.

Early carrots are supplied to Kazakhstan, garlic is exported to Russia and beetroots are exported to Ukraine less actively.

Regarding stone fruit of the new harvest, over the past week there have been attempts to find a vehicle to transport cherries from the Fergana Valley to Moscow. New harvest apricots to foreign markets have not been exported yet. Obviously, the reason for this is a high prices due to the damage caused to early apricot varieties by frosts.

As of May 4-5, Uzbek cherries are offered at $ 8-10 per kg under FCA Uzbekistan terms in the EastFruit Trade Platform. Cherries from Iran are offered on average 4 times cheaper on the same platform. However, as in the case of apricot, early cherries in Uzbekistan were also severely affected by frosts.

Сообщение New onions, cabbage and cherries are the most exported produce items of Uzbekistan now появились сначала на EastFruit.

The first batches of cabbage from the new harvest arrived on the Ukrainian market. With a 10 days delay compared to the previous season. The reason for this was the late spring, due to which the ripening of cabbage in the greenhouses of Transcarpathia and the southern region of the country is greatly delayed. According to the daily monitoring of the APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits project, early cabbage from the greenhouses is offered today in small volumes by individual farms in the Transcarpathian and Odessa regions.

Prices for the first batches of cabbage of the new harvest on the market so far vary in the range of UAH 22-27/kg ($ 0.79-0.96/kg), which actually corresponds to the price for the first batches of cabbage last season.

Read also: Uzbekistan might boost exports of early cabbage to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia due to cold weather

As for last year’s cabbage, the demand is starting to decline, as are the prices. To date, cabbage of the 2020 harvest is sold at 2.5-4 UAH/kg ($0.09-0.14/kg), while the stocks are still quite significant. Farmers who have large enough stocks of last year’s cabbage are concerned about further price reductions in this segment. As the supply of early cabbage on the Ukrainian market begins to increase, and prices for it decrease accordingly, the price of cabbage from last year’s harvest may actually drop to production’s cost.

Сообщение Cabbage season in Ukraine started 10 days later than last year появились сначала на EastFruit.

Early cabbage, together with early potatoes and onions, is one of the first fresh vegetable crops harvested in open field cultures in Uzbekistan. According to EastFruit, in 2021 it arrived on the markets in the country in the second half of March, and in many markets it has already replaced the harvest of last year’s cabbage. In addition, early cabbage is one of the important items in Uzbekistan’s exports, which generates several million dollars annually.

It is interesting to note that export shipments of early cabbage from Uzbekistan often start earlier than having the cabbage on the domestic markets because the producers are trying to get the highest possible price for this product on the foreign market.

It should be noted that early cabbage and cabbage of late varieties, subject to long-term storage, are completely different products from consumer’s point of view. They are not completely interchangeable, since some uses require just “old cabbage”. Therefore, both types of cabbage in the spring are usually available on the market at the same time and sell well, despite the significant difference in prices. As of April 16, 2021, early cabbage is sold in supermarkets in Tashkent at a price of 4500-5000 som/ kg ($ 0.43-0.48), and the price has been at this level for two weeks. At the same time, cabbage of the 2020 harvest can be purchased at a significantly lower price.

Read Also: Another disappointment for Russian vegetable producers

Traditionally, Uzbek producers and traders have tried to use the so-called “window of opportunity” to export early cabbage to colder countries, where is harvested later. Examples of such countries are Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. In Ukraine and Russia, early local greenhouse cabbage is supplied to the local market in large volumes starting at the end of April, and the one harvested in open field from the end of May. In Belarus, the harvest of early open-field cabbage goes to the domestic market at the end of June. Thus, the “window of opportunity” for exporting Uzbek cabbage is two months in Ukraine and Russia and three months i Belarus.

Due to the cold spring in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, the beginning of the harvest of early cabbage shifted by an average of two weeks. Therefore, Uzbekistan has two additional weeks for exports. It is possible that the exported volumes of early Uzbek cabbage will increase in 2021. In 2020, the peak of the exports of early cabbage from Uzbekistan fell in April, when more than 14 thousand tons were exported and in May 2020, exports fell to 1.2 thousand tons.

The exports of early cabbage to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia from Uzbekistan are now in full swing. According to information received by EastFruit analysts from Uzbek exporters, early cabbage is shipped from Uzbekistan at a price of $ 0.32 / kg to $ 0.43 / kg (size of product 0.7-1.7 kg), depending on the type of packaging (bag or boxes). Also, Uzbek transporting companies are actively looking for opportunities to reload vehicles that are used to supply early cabbage to these countries.

Сообщение Uzbekistan might boost exports of early cabbage to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia due to cold weather появились сначала на EastFruit.

Russian vegetable producers are not only disappointed with the current situation in the onion market, but now they are also concerned by the trends in the cabbage segment, EastFruit reports. Most producers today are still unable to sell off last year’s cabbage stocks, and the price of 2020 harvest has remained consistently low over the past two months.

At the moment, prices for last year’s cabbage are ranging  from10 to16 rubles/kg ($0.13-0.21/kg), but real transactions are not higher than 12-13 rubles/kg ($0.16-0.17/kg) in the southern and central regions of the country. The difficult situation in the cabbage segment is also observed in the Republic of Dagestan, which is its main exporter to the central regions of the Russian Federation. Today, Dagestani producer offer cabbage at 5 rubles/kg ($0.07/kg) and even in this case the demand is closed to zero.

Many Russian producers are now wondering whether it is worth planting early cabbage while there are large stocks of last year’s unsold product and imports are also high. Early cabbage produced in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is now exported to the Russian Federation in large volumes regularly. Prices for early imported cabbage in Moscow are ranging from 22 to 28 rubles/kg ($0.29-0.37/kg) in large wholesale. Cabbage from Iran is offered at a slightly higher price – 30-34 rubles/kg ($0.39-0.44/kg).

Usually, farmers from the southern regions are the first to hit the market with early products in Russia, and they will have to start the season much later than in 2020 due to unfavorable weather conditions this year. The prices for the first batches of early cabbage started from 40 rubles/kg ($0.53/kg) last year. However, producers will have to set prices at around 18 rubles/kg (0.24/kg) this year in order to compete with imported products. According to most of the key market players, such price is unprofitable for them, and many Russian producers are already stating that they will either reduce the early vegetables plantations, or completely abandon their production this season.

Сообщение Another disappointment for Russian vegetable producers появились сначала на EastFruit.

There has been a tendency to increase prices for white cabbage in Ukraine this week. According to the daily monitoring by the EastFruit project, many producers had sold off most of their inventory by mid-January. In addition, there is almost no low-quality cabbage left on the market.

Given the rapid decline in cabbage stocks on farms, farmers began to hold back sales of quality products, which led to a rise in prices this week. This information is also confirmed by wholesale companies, which note a general decline in cabbage supply on the market.

Read also: Important horticultural news you might have missed during the holidays

To date, selling prices for white cabbage have already risen to 1.50-3.50 UAH/kg ($0.05-0.12/kg), which is on average 20% more expensive than at the end of the last working week.

It should be noted that despite the rise in price in the segment of white cabbage, today this product on the Ukrainian market still costs 25% less on average than in the same period last year. Many key market players do not rule out that the rise in prices for this product is temporary. In fact, they argue that the next rise in the price of this product may motivate Ukrainian farmers to start selling white cabbage from storage.

Сообщение White cabbage began to rise in price in Ukraine появились сначала на EastFruit.