This week EastFruit published an analytical article explaining the sharp rise in prices for bananas in the world, including in the countries of Eastern Europe. However, more disturbing news for the banana business followed and they are associated with information about the appearance of the soil fungus Fusarium TR 4 in Venezuela. Although there is no official confirmation from the Venezuelan authorities, the photos and videos circulated in social networks and in the media leave little to no doubt to what is the cause of the deplorable situation on the banana plantations. Today, the Americanfruit publication also wrote about this issue, which, referring to the opinion of experts, comes to the same conclusions – Fusarium TR 4.

Thus, the largest exporter of bananas in the world, which is Ecuador, was completely surrounded by countries where cases of infections with the TR 4 soil fungus have already been confirmed. Cases of TR 4 banana plantations have been confirmed in Colombia and, more recently, even in Peru.

Ecuador annually exports over 6.5 million tons of bananas. Moreover, it is this country that is the largest supplier of bananas to Eastern Europe and Central Asia. So far, Ecuador has not reported cases of infection with the Fusarium  TR 4, but the likelihood of such a development is currently considered very high.

“The spread of the soil fungus Fusarium oxysporum TR 4 may lead to the urgent need to introduce genetically modified (GM) bananas, otherwise a significant part of the world’s population will be left without food. And the development of GM technology also takes time, albeit faster than traditional breeding methods. Besides, traditional breeding is not applicable to bananas, these are triploid plants that do not form seeds,” comments Marite Gailite from Latvian vegetable growers association Latvijas dārznieks.

According to EastFruit estimates, most of the countries in our region, with the exception of Russia, fall into the category of countries with low or very-low consumption of bananas. However, even here, banana is usually the best-selling fruit in supermarkets and the most imported one. On the other hand, Russia recently fell into the category of countries with an average consumption of bananas. Here, bananas are consumed almost as much as apples. Accordingly, price changes in the banana market will have a direct impact on consumers and it will also stimulate growth in demand for apples and other traditional and especially seasonal fruits and berries.

Сообщение More bad news for the banana industry – TR 4 is spreading fast появились сначала на EastFruit.

The global market for bananas, one of the most popular fruit on the planet, has experienced a number of shocks:  information is spreading in many countries’ media about imminent complete disappearance of bananas, and their prices are high everywhere, according to EastFruit.

According to EastFruit price monitoring data, bananas are now much more expensive than last year, and this is relevant for all countries of the project.

The average price of bananas jumped the most in Russia – one and a half times, and now they are sold on the Russian wholesale market at $ 1.44/kg average. At the same time, only in the Central Asia, where prices are traditionally high due to its logistical remoteness, bananas are more expensive than in the Russian Federation. Bananas are now offered on average at $ 1.57/kg and $ 1.99/kg in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, respectively.

Meanwhile, bananas in Belarus are in average 25% more expensive than a year earlier (on average $ 1.31/kg), and in Poland and Georgia, prices for bananas increased by an average of 21%. Prices have increased the least in Moldova, Ukraine and Tajikistan – only by 9% in the Moldovan market and by 6% each in Ukraine and Tajikistan.

What is driving banana prices up in the whole region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia? EastFruit suggests analyzing the situation in Ecuador, a key supplier of bananas both in the global market as a whole, and in almost every market of the countries monitored.

There were severe social protests in Ecuador in the fall of 2019, that the government even had to move the capital to another city, and the country was simply paralyzed. A few months later, the COVID-19 pandemic begun and literally devastated the country, putting it on the brink of a humanitarian disaster. As a result, according to the local Central Bank, cited by the BBC, the country’s economy fell by 8% in 2020.

The country’s plummeting economy, the rapid spread of COVID-19, as well as a sharp decline in spot prices for bananas due to weakening global demand in 2020, have not helped the banana industry in Ecuador. In addition, the quality and export of Ecuadorian bananas were hit hard by the eruption of the Sangay volcano in September, which repeated in March 2021. As a result, after the record export of bananas in 2020, the exports from Ecuador fell again in the first months of 2021.

Meanwhile, demand for bananas from Ecuador has unexpectedly increased in the US market, a less traditional destination for them. After floods swept across Central America in November 2020, banana production was hit hard in Guatemala, Honduras and other countries in the region that focused primarily on supplies to the United States. Thus, the majority of Ecuadorian exporters reoriented to the American market, and banana exports to the Russian Federation fell in the first quarter of 2021, while the United States purchased more bananas from Ecuador.

The Ecuadorian exporters also note a slight decrease in demand for bananas from Russia . The Russian Federation, against the backdrop of COVID-19 crisis, significantly reduced both the supply of natural gas and oil  in 2020. Therefore, when imported fruits had risen in price, the demand for them decreased on the Russian market. In addition, the Russian ruble has somewhat depreciated over the year, and imported products have become more expensive on the domestic market. Similar currency trends were observed over the year in the markets of other EastFruit countries, except for Moldova and Poland, where national currencies slightly strengthened.

All these trends contribute to a gradual increase in prices for bananas everywhere, and add to the rumors that bananas might completely disappear in South America. A major threat to the banana industry is now the Tropical Race 4 (TR4) disease, which primarily affects the exported Cavendish. Cases of plantation infections in South America have already been reported in 2019, and in April this year, a case was confirmed in Peru, neighbor of Ecuador. In the meantime, Ecuadorian exporters report no cases of TR4 detection in the country and state that they are constantly monitoring the situation, but the threat can be serious.

Cavendish became the most exported banana variety in the 1950s when the rapid spread of TR4 literally wiped out Gros Michel plantations in South America. The Gros Michel variety was previously the leader in exports from the region.

Сообщение Bananas are becoming more expensive everywhere and may even disappear появились сначала на EastFruit.

Last week, as EastFruit reported, Russia banned imports of greenhouse tomatoes and peppers from the Ferghana region of Uzbekistan due to detection of a quarantine object, particularly, the brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV), in the products from this region. However, this ban may not be the biggest problem.

According to the international expert of greenhouse technologies Marite Gailite from the Latvian vegetable growers association Latvijas dārznieks, with Tobamovirus (ToBRFV), the situation may turn out to be much more threatening for the greenhouse business in Uzbekistan and the whole Central Asia than a ban on exports.

Read more: Uzbekistan: prices for greenhouse vegetables increased by 79% in 2020

“This virus persists in the soil and causes severe crop losses. If it continues spreading, it can lead to a significant reduction of the area under tomatoes in the region of Central Asia. And if infected tomatoes get to other regions, the situation for producers will be worse than what we have with Covid-19,” explains Marite Gailite.

Read more: Why is Uzbekistan killing their successful greenhouse industry?

In addition to tomatoes and peppers, Tobamovirus can also infect other nightshade crops, in particular, potatoes or tobacco. Since this virus began to cause damage to crops relatively recently, in many countries, it is not yet included in the list of quarantine objects, and its identification is difficult. Therefore, Uzbek greenhouses need to take the situation very seriously, quickly localise the focus of infection, and prevent the spread of the virus.

Other countries in the region may also introduce temporary bans of Uzbek products as a precautionary measure. In particular, Kazakhstan is already considering it. 

Likewise, Russian authorised services will soon check all imported lots of tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables for the virus. The greenhouse business in Russia today is one of the most modern in the world due to billions of dollars of investment made by domestic investors over the past five years.

Сообщение Central Asia’s greenhouse business under siege – Russian ban not greatest danger появились сначала на EastFruit.