According to information communicated by the Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan, the production of vegetables and potatoes increased in the country in 2021. However, prices remain high. EastFruit figured out the reasons.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Tajikistan harvested 144 thousand tonnes more potatoes and more than 100 thousand tonnes more vegetables in 2021. Unfortunately, there is no breakdown by how much the production of each type of vegetables has grown, and this includes tubers, cabbage, and even tomatoes and cucumbers.

Now let’s see what the market thinks about production growth.

Potato

Potato prices in Tajikistan are currently at a record level for this period in recent years and continue to rise. Wholesale potatoes are now sold at 4.2 TJS per kg ($0.37 per kg), which is 1.5 times higher than at the same time in 2020 and 2.2 times higher than in 2019.

What is the reason for such a rapid rise in prices for potatoes in Tajikistan, if their production has increased? Recently, there were reports of increased demand for Tajik potatoes from Uzbekistan, where prices were at record highs. Therefore, the price rise may be partly due to the growth of exports, as potato prices in Uzbekistan have decreased this week, while in Tajikistan they have risen again. However, prices have been high for quite some time, and the official data on growth in potato production may be somewhat overestimated.

Onion

As of November 11, 2021, onion prices in Tajikistan in the wholesale trade are 1.6 TJS and are at the same level as on the same date in 2020. However, this price level is 1.5 times higher than in 2018-2019.

So far, no information has been received on the growth of onion exports from Tajikistan. Prices for Tajik onions are currently at about the same level as in Uzbekistan and have a slight upward trend. Uzbekistan already supplies onions to Ukraine, but Tajikistan cannot do this yet, as logistics are more expensive from Tajikistan. Thus, it is most likely that onion production, at least, did not decrease compared to 2020.

Carrot

Prices for carrots in Tajikistan are 30% higher than last year, but in 2018 they were higher than now. However, if production rose, prices should have been lower, provided there was no surge in domestic demand or exports.

However, prices in Tajikistan are much lower than in Uzbekistan – the difference is more than twofold. Moreover, both in Uzbekistan and in Tajikistan there is a tendency to reduce the price of carrots now. But in Russia and Belarus, prices are high and there are prospects for their growth. Therefore, it is possible that these countries will become importers of carrots from Central Asia.

Сообщение Tajikistan reports increase in potato and vegetable production, but prices are higher than a year ago появились сначала на EastFruit.

From January to July 2021, Uzbekistan imported 310 thousand tons of potatoes, worth $ 35.4 million, which is the highest figure for this period over the past two decades, EastFruit analysts report. In their opinion, the increase in potato imports contributed to price stability in the domestic market.

The previous record for potato imports in January-July was recorded in 2020. According to the State Statistics Committee, the imports of potatoes in 7 months of 2021 in volumes exceeded the imports in the previous year by 79.1 thousand tons, or 34%.

Note: data for 2019 is provided by EastFruit analysts, for 2020-2021 – provided by the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan 

Almost the entire volume (99.7%) of potatoes imported to Uzbekistan in January-July 2021 was supplied from six countries:

Iran – 119 thousand tons (38.5% of total imports);

Kazakhstan – 85.0 thousand tons (27.4%);

Pakistan – 75.5 thousand tons (24.4%);

Kyrgyzstan – 16.8 thousand tons (5.4%);

Netherlands – 8.1 thousand tons (2.6%);

Russia – 4.2 thousand tons (1.4%).

Other countries – 1 thousand tons (0.3%).

There is almost no export of potatoes from Uzbekistan. According to the Customs Committee of the Republic, from the beginning of January 2020 to the end of July 2021, i.e. in more than 1,5 years, the total volume of potato exports amounted to only 2.9 thousand tons.

As it was shown in the analytical material of EastFruit “Potatoes of Uzbekistan – what caused the high prices and can they be reduced in the future?”, over the past few years, the increase in potato imports has served as one of the factors that ensured price stability in the domestic market.

Recall that in January-June 2021, over 1.5 million tons of potatoes were produced in Uzbekistan, which is 3.5% more than in the same period last year. Along with the increase in the import volume to 310 thousand tons in January-July 2021, this explains the fact that the current prices are at the same level as in September last year. As of September 9, 2021, the average wholesale prices for potatoes in the capital markets of Uzbekistan were 3000 sum/kg ($ 0.28 per kg). On the same date in 2020, the average wholesale prices for potatoes were the same – 3000 sum/kg ($ 0.29 per kg).

Сообщение Uzbekistan sets yet another record of potato imports появились сначала на EastFruit.

After a successful harvest of hazelnuts in Georgia last year, the current season started somewhat slower. Thus, a slight decrease in the exports of Georgian hazelnuts at the beginning of the 2021/2022 season. Associated with heavy rains, which led to delays in harvest and therefore exports.

At the same time, rather high volumes of exports of in-shell hazelnuts are observed – in August 781 tons, which is about 10 times more than the average for the same period of 2014-2020. Hazelnut growers note strong demand from Italian exporters.

In total, in August of this year, Georgia exported 1,085 tons of hazelnut kernels, which is 16% less than in the same period a year earlier. As EastFruit predicted, prices fell from  6,140 USD per tonne in August 2020 to  5,780 USD in August 2021.

Total revenues from the exports of hazelnuts, both shelled and in shell, reached $ 8.1 million, just 1% less than in August last year.

Сообщение Slower start for Georgian hazelnut exports in the new season появились сначала на EastFruit.

In February EastFruit experts identified the main reasons for the sharp rise in potatos prices in Uzbekistan over the past few years, having analyzed trends in the production, import and consumption of potatoes for the period from 2000 to 2020.

A government document was signed in March – “On the effective use of existing land and the placement of crops for sowing for the 2021 harvest ” requiring to increase the planted area of ​​potatoes by 29% compared to last year.

EastFruit analysts emphasize the dynamics of the cultivated area from 2019 to 2021 and believe that if no natural disasters occur and the yield indicator maintains at the previous levels, Uzbekistan’s need for potato imports will sharply decrease this year.

Sources : Decisions of the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan on various types of crops on agricultural land in 2019 , 2020 and 2021 .

According to the table, the increase in the planted area this year will be achieved by expanding potato fields on the main lands, and by planting  on lands freed from early crops and wheat. The cultivated areas on these lands are increasing by 67%. Considering that the total area of ​​potato fields in 2020 decreased by 15% compared to the previous year, this year they will increase by only 10% compared to 2019, i.e., from 78 708 to 86 529 hectares.

Noteworthy is the sharp increase by 84.3% of the area of ​​potatoes intercropped in orchards and vineyards  of which EastFruit analysts warned in their article, when the pressure of officials on farmers intensified. Nevertheless, they did not heed the advice of experts, and the area was dramatically expanded. However, in the general structure of potato areas, tuber areas intercropped occupy only insignificant 3.4%. And this is another argument against such unwise use of orchards and vineyards.

The overall increase of the area under potatoes in 2021 in Uzbekistan, according to officials, should be 29%.

Many have noticed that the planted area of potatoes is a “decision of the government”.  The government decisions, if not backed up by material incentives, may not at all influence the real decisions of business in most other countries, but in Uzbekistan the situation is the opposite. Correlation exists and is noticeable. Moreover, according to market participants, real areas under potatoes often turn out to be larger than those announced in official decrees.

How will the expansion of the total area cultivated with potatoes affect the total volume of tuber production in Uzbekistan?

Based on the volume of potato production in previous years (according to the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan) and the forecast of maintaining the yield at the same levels, we can expect 3.73 million tons potato produced this year.

Important note: The average yield in the table above is calculated by dividing production by the total area for potato planting indicated in government crop placement plans. In fact, the total area planted with potatoes is larger due to household plots of the population in rural areas, where potatoes are also grown for personal use and for sale in local markets. We believe that the volumes of production at these sites are accounted for in the reports of the State Statistics Committee, while their areas are not accounted for (or partially accounted for) in government documents.

In February, EastFruit analysts predicted that “… to ensure price stability, the annual increase in potato supply in the domestic market (production + imports) should be 5.5-6.5%.  The forecast volume of supply in the domestic potato market of Uzbekistan, a balancing demand, is 3.63-3.67 million tons this year. ” In other words, in order to ensure price stability (without sharp fluctuations) in the potato market this year, the volume of its supply in the domestic market of Uzbekistan should be 3.63-3.67 million tons.

The projected volume of potato production this year, taking into account plans to increase the cultivated area, is 3.73 million tons (see table above). All other things being equal, this means a sharp decline in the volume of imported potatoes in 2020. The imperfection of the infrastructure for storing potatoes in Uzbekistan should be taken into account, from technologies for growing tubers for long-term storage to the quality and availability of specialized potato storage facilities with temperature and humidity control. However, given the increase in potato losses during storage, Uzbekistan’s import needs may still significantly decrease.

For reference: according to FAOSTAT, the volume of potato imports to Uzbekistan began to grow sharply over the past few years. 55.9 thousand tons were imported in 2016, and in 2017-2020 the import increased from 216 thousand to 300 thousand tons per year. The main volumes of potatoes are imported to Uzbekistan from Russia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan.

Сообщение Uzbekistan could sharply reduce the imports of potatoes in 2021 появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to the erroneous statements that China became one of the top 3 importers of Uzbek fruit and vegetables in January 2021. Moreover, the experts claim that the exports of Uzbek fruit and vegetables to China fell sharply in January 2021!

Apparently, the Uzbek officials decided not to go into detail, and included HS groups 07 and 08 in the “fruit and vegetables”, which is fundamentally wrong. This category includes dried legumes that, in market analysis, are classified under the category “grains and pulses”. This is due to the specifics of their cultivation, storage and trade.

Unlike fruit and vegetable products, these crops, represented in Uzbekistan mainly by mung bean, are grown on large areas, their production can be completely mechanized, they do not belong to perishable products and are stored for a long time without the need of cold storage. They are transported in bulk, and as a rule, are traded by same traders who trade in grains. So, under all aspects of production, storage, logistics, and marketing these crops are fundamentally different from fruit and vegetables.

It turns out that it is mung beans and other dry legumes that are the main categories of Uzbekistan’s exports to China. Moreover, exports in this category have indeed increased but it has nothing to do with vegetables and fruit.

And what about the supplies of Uzbek vegetables and fruits to China in January 2021? The situation is not all roses. First of all, Uzbekistan did not export any vegetables to China, in other words, vegetable shipments were zero in January. Secondly, Uzbekistan did not export fresh fruits to China either. Thirdly, the export of Uzbek dried fruits, the only category that was exported to China under the fruit and vegetables in January 2021, fell sharply compared to the same month in 2020 and was even much lower than in January 2019. So, we have a clear downward trend in exports of fruit and vegetable products from China in January 2021 instead of the announced increase in supplies!

In January 2021, Uzbekistan exported 320 tons of raisins to China, compared to 1145 tons in January 2020 and 3659 tons in January 2019. It turns out that just in two years, the supply of this category of goods fell 11 times! Uzbekistan exported 40 tons of dried apricot in January 2021 against 102 tons a year earlier. And here again the fall is more than twofold.

Revenues from exports to China are also modest – Uzbek exporters received $ 210,000 for raisins, and $ 35,000 for dried apricots. But for mung beans and legumes, in fact, about $ 12 million were received, according to Chinese statistics, which is close to the indicators of the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, although less.

Thus, there is a downward trend in the exports of vegetables and fruits to China. By the way, China has already published trade data for February 2021, and there are still no imports of fresh fruit and vegetables from Uzbekistan at all. And there are still less Uzbek dried fruits imported to China than in January-February 2020.

Сообщение Why are the statements on high exports of fruit and vegetables from Uzbekistan to China wrong? появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Russia harvested 3.6 million tons of fruits and berries in 2020, which is 2.2% more than in 2019. Also, despite unfavourable weather conditions in several areas of the South and North-Caucasian Federal Districts regions, the industrial sector’s gross harvest reached a record 1.2 million tons.

The increase in production volumes is primarily due to the high pace of modern intensive orchards and farms in development. The leading regions in this area are Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, the Republics of Kabardino-Balkaria and Crimea, Voronezh and Lipetsk Regions. The main types of fruits and berries that are grown in the country are apples, plums, cherries, sweet cherries, apricots, currants, raspberries, blueberries, and strawberries.

Horticulture is currently one of the most promising crop production areas with a significant potential for import substitution. Investors and government support measures facilitate this sub-industry development with subsidies to reimburse part of the costs for perennial fruit and berry plantations, preferential investment and short-term lending. Also, berry farmers benefit from compensation for direct expenses incurred for starting up agricultural facilities and their modernization.

Сообщение Fruit and berry harvests in Russia increased to 3.6 million tons in 2020 появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to the State Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the volume of exports of fruits and vegetables in 2020 amounted to over 1.4 million tons and exceeded $1 billion in value. The rate of exports dropped compared to the same period in 2019, which was 16.5%.

Uzbekistan exported 768,300 tons of vegetables worth $400 million and 402,300 tons of fruits and berries worth $353.9 million. The rate of exports decrease in these categories in value terms was 15.1% and 13%, respectively.

Nuz.uz reports that the main export markets for fruit and vegetable products were Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan.

In January-December 2020, the share of fruits and vegetables in total for Uzbekistan’s exports amounted to 6.7%. Russia and Kazakhstan became the primary consumers of fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan.

In 2020, Russia remained the largest consumer of Uzbek vegetables and fruits in value terms. According to the State Committee on Statistics, 355,200 thousand tons of agricultural products worth $255.4 million were shipped to the Russian Federation in January-December, which is 25.3% in the total export volume.

Kazakhstan became the second major consumer of agricultural products from Uzbekistan. Over the twelve months of last year, Uzbekistan exported 625,100 tons of fruits and vegetables worth $251.1 million to Pakistan with 24.9% in the export of fruits.

Last year, Uzbekistan exported half of its fruits and vegetables to Russia and Kazakhstan both in volume and value terms.

In January-December 2020, Uzbekistan also sold 136,800 tons of vegetables and fruits to Kyrgyzstan worth $181.1 million (18%) and 48,500 tons of fruits and vegetables worth $75.5 million (7.5%) to consumers in Pakistan.

Сообщение In 2020, Uzbek vegetable and fruit exports value reached $1 billion появились сначала на EastFruit.

The pandemic did not prevent a significant increase in agricultural exports from the Khatlon region of Tajikistan. In 2020, a total of 108,000 tons of fruits and vegetables were exported from this southern region alone, which is 20,000 tons more than in 2019.

Onions accounted for the overwhelming majority of the total export volume to foreign countries at 89,400 tons in the amount of $8.9 million. Additional exports were other vegetables at 2,500 tons, fruits (including lemons) at 7,400 tons, and melons at 6,300 tons. Various dried fruits were also exported from the region. This information was reported by the press service of the chairman of the Khatlon region.

Read also: Horticulture of Tajikistan 2020: superfoods, disappointments, and price peaks

Khatlon’s fruit and vegetable products were exported to Russia, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Lithuania.

Out of the total volume of exported products, over 22,600 tons were delivered by road and air transport, and more than 85,000 tons by rail, including 22,800 tons by the railway of the Khatlon region.

According to experts, subject to the creation of additional logistics centres; enterprises for processing, drying, packaging, storage, and refrigeration facilities; and the introduction of modern technologies for growing vegetables and fruits, farmers of the Khatlon region will be able to further increase exports and the geography of supplies of its fruit and vegetable products in the future.

Сообщение Fruit and vegetable exports from Khatlon region (Tajikistan) increased by 20,000 tons появились сначала на EastFruit.