EastFruit experts note the growing interest of Ukrainian consumers in understanding why borsch vegetables are so expensive.

Indeed, it is difficult for many to understand why the retail price for cabbage now ranges from 21 to 25 UAH/kg, while last year at the same time, it was sold at an average of 4-5 UAH/kg. And how can cabbage cost more than apples?

By the way, cabbage, carrots, onions and table beets were sold at approximately the same retail price a year ago – within 4-5 UAH/kg. However, all four of these important vegetables are now many times more expensive. Table beets are now sold in supermarkets in Kyiv at 16-18 UAH/kg, onions – at 13-16 UAH/kg, and carrots – at 15-20 UAH/kg.

By the way, the only product from this category that has not risen in price over the year is potatoes. Moreover, it even fell a little in price over the year. And if in January 2022 potatoes were the most expensive vegetable of the borsch set, now they are the cheapest.

However, how can one explain such high prices for beets, carrots, onions and especially cabbage, and why prices for borsch vegetables have risen so sharply over the year? We will also try to figure out whether there are prospects for lowering the prices.

Probably, this will come as a surprise to many in Ukraine, but despite the ban on the export of vegetables from Ukraine to Russia, it is Russia that is mainly “to blame” for the high prices for vegetables in Ukraine. Moreover, there are two important factors that led to an increase in vegetable prices in Ukraine, and which are directly related to Russia.

The first factor is the unprecedented shortage of vegetables in the Russian market. Since Russia has isolated itself from the markets of Ukraine and the EU, it is not easy to fill this deficit, and as a result, local consumers are forced to pay incredibly high prices for vegetables and potatoes, losing billions of dollars on this. This problem was previously partially solved by Belarus, which re-exported vegetables banned in Russia from the EU countries, but it has banned the import of vegetables and fruits from the EU and a number of other countries since January 1, 2022.

However, if Ukraine cannot export vegetables to Russia, how do the developments in the Russian market affect the Ukrainian market? It’s simple – Russia buys cabbage, carrots, beets and other vegetables wherever it can. Belarus has traditionally been a major supplier, but it also faced a crop failure in 2022, so it began to purchase vegetables in Ukraine. Today, the export of vegetables to Belarus is more profitable than their sale on the domestic market of Ukraine, and it is easy to guess that these Ukrainian vegetables are likely to end up on the Russian market.

The second factor that leads to an increase in prices for vegetables in Ukraine is also directly related to Russia. Due to the concentration of Russian troops on the borders with Ukraine and the threat of their invasion into the country, the national currency of Ukraine has been actively devaluing in recent weeks. This makes exports even more profitable, which means that the supply of vegetables for the domestic market is reduced. Thus, retailers have to raise prices in order to purchase vegetables from growers.

In the case of cabbage, another factor is added – the increase in the cost of imports. After all, Ukraine is now importing cabbage from Poland. If the UAH devalues, even with the price for cabbage in Poland remaining the same, its price in Ukraine grows in proportion to the devaluation of the UAH.

Of course, one cannot but take into account the reducing production of traditional borsch vegetables in Ukraine. “In recent years, grain prices have risen to record levels, while prices for borsch vegetables in Ukraine have remained stable. This almost equalized income per hectare of grains with income per hectare of vegetables. The risks in growing vegetables are much higher, it is more difficult to grow them, they are far from being stored as well as grains. Losses during storage of vegetables are much higher and even market risks are ten times higher than in the case of grain, which can always be easily sold. This has led many vegetable and potato growers in Ukraine to abandon the production of table beets, onions, carrots, cabbages and potatoes in favor of grains,” explains Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Will vegetable prices go down in the near future and in the new season? Unfortunately, there is no definite answer to this. However, the EastFruit team in Central Asia confirms a sharp increase in the area planted with early cabbage, the harvest of which is beginning in the southern regions of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. It is possible that it will become available on the Ukrainian market in February, leading to a reduction in wholesale and retail prices for cabbage.

As for other vegetables, one should not expect a significant decrease in their price in Ukraine in the coming months, given the situation with production and logistics in other countries of the region.

Opinions about the prospects for a new harvest are divided. Many market participants believe that high prices will lead to a sharp increase in acreage in Ukraine. Others point to the fact of a sharp increase in the cost of inputs, especially fertilizers, which may act as a deterrent to increasing areas, and may also affect vegetable yields.

Сообщение Why are traditional vegetables so expensive in Ukraine? появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to the fact that the self-isolation of Belarus and Russia is costly for local consumers of fruits and vegetables. This, in turn, affects their consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, which is the most important factor for strengthening immunity and maintaining health.

The access of Russian and Belarusian consumers to fresh vegetables and fruits has especially worsened after the embargo on their supply from the EU to the Belarusian market from January 1, 2022. It is no secret that Belarus has long been the largest re-exporter of European fruits and vegetables banned in Russia to its market. Accordingly, not only Belarusian, but also Russian consumers suffered from the embargo.

How much does such self-isolation cost for consumers in Russia and Belarus? Since the announcement of the Belarusian embargo, the main set of vegetables and fruits, which were previously imported at least partially from the EU, including the basic vegetables of the borscht set, has risen in price by 25-35% average. According to EastFruit, vegetables are now on average twice as expensive as last year, and fruits are 20-40% more expensive.

Read also: Agrifood forecast for 2022: record price increase, fertilizer shortage, declining yields and labor shortage

According to our estimates, Russian consumers will overpay about $1 billion for potatoes alone in 2022 compared to normal cost without embargo. Consumers from Belarus will lose about $150 million on potatoes. If we take into account all the vegetables of the “borscht set” and fruits, consumers of Russia and Belarus will overpay more than $2 billion due to embargoes.

Such market distortions stimulate the growth in the production of potatoes, cabbage, carrots, beets, as well as apples in countries such as Iran, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan for supplies to Russia and Belarus. However, Kazakhstan introduced a ban on the exports of parts of the fruit and vegetable group, in particular, potatoes. Logistics from other above-mentioned countries is much more expensive than from the EU, as the main consumption in Russia is concentrated in the European part of the country, and Belarus itself is located in Europe. Thus, consumers are forced to overpay for products, but this additional margin goes to transport companies. In addition, excess kilometers of transportation exacerbate environmental pollution and lead to significant losses of perishable fruits and vegetables. It is consumers that will have to pay for all of this.

Сообщение Consumers in Russia and Belarus will pay billions of dollars in 2022 for their self-isolation from the EU fruit and vegetable market появились сначала на EastFruit.

Cabbage in Ukraine continues to rise in price intensively, and its growth rate has noticeably accelerated this week, EastFruit project analysts report. Key players say the consistently high demand for cabbage both in the domestic market and from export-oriented companies is the reason for the new price increase. At the same time, the supply volumes of cabbage in Ukraine in the current season are much lower than last year, which is due to the reduction in the area planted with white cabbage.

Today Ukrainian farmers sell cabbage no cheaper than 15-17 UAH/kg ($0.52-0.59/kg), which is on average 50% more expensive than at the end of the last work week. According to market experts, the main reason is the re-export of Ukrainian cabbage to Russia through Belarus. Due to the boom in the cabbage market in Russia, the demand from Belarusian export companies in Ukraine has increased several times over the past week.

Read also: Stocks of cabbage are rapidly declining in Russia

“Given the current developments on the cabbage market in Ukraine, there are no prerequisites for a decrease in selling prices until the end of the current season, – Olexandr Khorev, head of the APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits project, comments, – It will be difficult to relieve stress on the domestic market with imported white cabbage. Today our main suppliers, in particular Poland, are covering the deficit of white cabbage simultaneously in Ukraine and Russia, where today there is a severe shortage of it.”

As a result, current prices for ù cabbage in Ukraine are on average 7 times higher than last year in the same period. Nevertheless, most Ukrainian producers are keeping cabbage in storages, hoping to sell it at an even higher price in early spring.

Сообщение Cabbage prices in Ukraine have risen by 50% in one week появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to the most important factor of recent weeks for the fruit and vegetable business in the region – sharp jumps in the exchange rate of the Turkish currency – lira.

Since the beginning of 2021, the Turkish lira exchange rate has more than halved. Moreover, the exchange rate collapsed the most in the last three weeks. Following the collapse of the exchange rate, a sharp rise in the value of the currency started quite often, as the Turkish government tried to stop the rapid devaluation in every possible way.

Naturally, a decrease in the exchange rate of any country stimulates exports, while strengthening, on the contrary, worsens the position of the country’s goods in foreign markets. Thus, Turkish vegetables and fruits are now becoming more competitive in foreign markets. In this regard, EastFruit analysts decided to examine the structure and geography of Turkey’s fruit and vegetable exports in order to show how and who will be most affected by the situation in Turkey.

First of all, vegetables, fruits and nuts, and food and agricultural products generally, are not the most important export commodities of Turkey. Only nuts are among the 25 largest export commodities. Nevertheless, fresh fruits and vegetables, nuts, as well as dried fruits and frozen fruits and vegetables brought Turkey $5.7 billion in export earnings by the end of 2020.

For comparison, Uzbekistan exported 8 times less fruits and vegetables, and Ukraine and Moldova – about 20 times less than Turkey. Turkey ranks 8th in the global ranking of exporters of fruit and vegetable products, not far behind Italy and Chile. By the end of 2021, it may well rise to the 6th position among the world’s largest exporters.

Turkey is also a quite large importer of fruits and vegetables, annually purchasing fruits and vegetables worth about $1 billion abroad. Accordingly, the devaluation of the lira will make imports more expensive, meaning that we can expect a decrease in Turkey’s purchases of fruits, vegetables and nuts abroad.

What are the main markets for Turkey? Where will the pressure of Turkish goods be most noticeable and which of the goods will Turkey begin to purchase in smaller volumes?

Russia is the main buyer of Turkish fruit and vegetables. Turkey supplies up to 18% of all its products to Russia. Accordingly, the pressure on the Russian market will be most noticeable. Germany, Italy, Iraq, Great Britain and France are next, and Ukraine is the 7th among the most important sales markets.

Therefore, Turkish products will become more actively sold to Ukraine and will compete with Ukrainian ones in the markets of the EU countries. However, we are talking only about a few positions, and we will tell you further about product markets to be affected by the devaluation of the Turkish lira.

The main export commodity of the Turkish fruit and vegetable group is hazelnuts. This is bad news for Georgia, as Turkish hazelnuts will become even more affordable at a fairly high quality. And this season Georgia is already forced to export hazelnuts at very low prices. This could further increase the pressure on the prices of Georgian hazelnuts in the EU countries.

Raisins are the second most important Turkish export product. However, Turkey has almost no influence on the markets important for our region, as it supplies raisins mainly to the EU.

Mandarins are the third most important export commodity. This also poses threat to Georgia experiencing problems with the quality of mandarins this year, as in the case of hazelnuts. Accordingly, cheaper and better quality Turkish mandarins will create competition for mandarin suppliers from Georgia. Even bans on the import of mandarins to Russia from several Turkish exporters will not significantly affect the situation. On the other hand, cheap Turkish mandarins are good for consumers in Ukraine and Russia, but they may indirectly reduce the demand for apples there, which is bad news for the region’s farmers.

Greenhouse tomatoes are the next most important goods among Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. Of course, the key importing countries are Russia and Ukraine. In this regard, local greenhouses will have a hard time, because Turkish products will be sold cheaper. By the way, the devaluation of the Turkish lira is one of the main reasons why a high increase in prices for greenhouse vegetables never happened in these northern countries. After all, given the high prices for gas and other energy resources, there were fears that the prices for greenhouse tomatoes would skyrocket to unprecedented levels.

Apple is the category of Turkish exports that also has a direct impact on the regional and global apple market. We wrote more about the influence of Turkey in the #freshapplecrisis article. The devaluation of lira is bad news for our farmers, as Turkish apples are becoming more affordable. This will have the greatest negative impact on Moldova, and, to a lesser extent, on Ukraine.

The influence on many of Turkey’s other export positions will be much smaller, minimal, or seasonal. For example, Turkey is the most important player in the stone fruit market: cherries, apricots, peaches, etc. However, the new export season for these crops starts later, so it is too early to draw conclusions about the impact of devaluation on these segments.

Note that the devaluation of the lira will affect not only exports, but also Turkey’s huge fruit and vegetable imports.

The main import commodity that will impact the markets of our region is inshell walnuts. Ukraine and Uzbekistan will be directly affected by the devaluation, since they are among the major suppliers of inshell walnuts to Turkey. However, their positions have already lowered when they did not receive import preferences and had to pay import duties on nuts.

Turkey is also a major hub for the re-export of dried fruits. Some of them are imported by Turkey from Uzbekistan and other countries of Central Asia. However, since the business is re-export, the devaluation of the lira will not impact it greatly.

Devaluation in Turkey has been accompanied by rising inflation. This means that the incomes of the country’s population will decline. Respectively, we can expect a decrease in domestic consumption as a whole in the category of expensive products.

The instability in Turkey will have a large impact on the regional fruit and vegetable market. This factor may become dominant for importers from Eastern Europe for the entire winter and spring periods.

Сообщение How will the collapse of the Turkish Lira affect the vegetable, fruit and nut markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia? появились сначала на EastFruit.

The situation on the potato market in the region, and especially in Russia, is developing very dynamically. However, according to EastFruit experts, the possibility of an acute shortage of potatoes in the Russian Federation has become very real in recent days, especially in light of the latest decisions of Belarus, Kazakhstan and the situation in Egypt and Uzbekistan. Let’s start with the background.

After Russian market participants began to realize in August that the country would experience a shortage of potatoes in the 2020/21 season, they immediately began to look for countries where potatoes are in abundance. Potato prices during this period broke away from the standard indicators and began to rise sharply. They are on 3 times average higher now than usually in this period, as can be seen in this EastFruit price monitoring chart.

However, all countries where Russia could buy potatoes in large volumes and in good quality, namely the EU countries and Ukraine, cannot supply potatoes, as well as other vegetables and fruits there by the decision of Russia itself. So far, Belarus is helping to partially overcome this artificial barrier, but Belarus itself is experiencing a shortage of potatoes and even imported them during the harvest from Ukraine this year. But Belarus also decided to ban the imports of fruit and vegetable products from the EU from January 1, 2022. Therefore, the re-exports of European products through Belarus to Russia will stop from January 2022, and it will have to look for alternatives. And there are not so many of them.

Unexpected and unconventional suppliers such as Iran and Georgia became the main sources of potato imports to Russia in October 2021! The third largest supplier was Belarus, which itself experienced a shortage, and the fourth – Moldova! Serbia was also among the major suppliers of potatoes to Russia, which also suggests re-exporting products from the EU, as potato prices in Serbia were unusually high, and it bought potatoes even from Ukraine.

Notably, Pakistan that supplied large volumes of potatoes to Russia in the first half of 2021 has almost stopped exporting them to Russian market since July. At the same time, Pakistan remained a key supplier of potatoes to Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries. Potato prices in Uzbekistan were higher than in Russia, and logistics to Uzbekistan from Pakistan were cheaper. Therefore, Uzbekistan bought larger volume of potatoes as one of their world’s largest importers. It turns out that Uzbekistan, which was a reliable market for potatoes for Russia, has turned into a competitor in the market for their purchase. Thus, the prospects for the supply of early potatoes from Uzbekistan to Russia in spring 2022 are not obvious, as potato prices remain record high there and are also likely to grow.

Kazakhstan, fearing a shortage of potatoes on its market given the situation in Russia, made an unpopular decision to completely ban the exports of potatoes from the country for three months, i.e. until the end of February 2022. Therefore, there is no reason to hope for the purchase of potatoes from Kazakhstan either.

As a rule, Egypt supplies very large volumes of potatoes to Russia from February to June. However, the prospects for supplies to Russia in 2022 look much worse than usual. According to our information, Egyptian farmers have sharply reduced the area planted with “winter potatoes” to be harvested in January-February 2022. Given the sharp rise in the cost of logistics, Egypt is focusing on the supply of potatoes to the countries of the Middle East and Africa, and Russia is no longer a priority for it.

Russian supermarket chains are now starting to place orders for the supply of potatoes from Egypt. According to Egyptian potato exporters, chains are now asking for a record volume – up to 50 thousand tonnes to each! However, there are not enough potatoes in Egypt to cover this demand. The second problem is the price of Egyptian potatoes – taking into account delivery, prices reach $600 per tonne on the CIF Novorossiysk basis, excluding port fees and duties. And this is 50% times more expensive than the current price for potatoes on the domestic market of Russia which is already record!

Returning to Iran, it should be noted that it also exports potatoes to Uzbekistan and other countries. Potato stocks are also rapidly decreasing there, while prices are rising. Therefore, Iran will not be able to cover the entire potato deficit in Russia, even if the production of early potatoes increases in spring.

Thus, given the poor choice of suppliers, potato prices in Russia will most likely tend to increase from today’s 30 RUB/kg ($0.41/kg) to 50 RUB/kg in February 2022 or even higher. Given already record high prices for most of the traditional vegetables of the so-called “borsch set” and especially cabbage, rising potato prices to such high levels could also create additional difficulties for low-income consumers. At the same time, high prices for potatoes may again attract new farmers to grow them, although the basic requirements for entering this business in Russia are constantly growing.

The potentially high profitability of growing potatoes in the southern regions of Russia, as well as in the countries of Central Asia, this season should also be noted. They can make good money both on domestic sales and on the exports of potatoes to the Russian Federation.

Сообщение Where can Russia get potatoes? Analyzing the prospects for covering the acute shortage появились сначала на EastFruit.

Cabbage has risen in price in Ukraine this week, analysts of the EastFruit project report. According to the key market players, it is mainly export-oriented companies that initiate the increase in prices in this segment. They began to purchase Ukrainian cabbage for further resale to Belarus this week. Moreover, most of these cabbages are subsequently sold on the Russian market.

According to the daily monitoring of the project, many large farms refuse to sell large volumes of high-quality cabbage in the hope of selling it on more favorable terms. At the same time, the demand in the segment is gradually growing, enabling other growers to raise their prices. Today, most Ukrainian growers are already selling cabbage at 7-10 UAH/kg ($0.26-0.37/kg), which is 26% more expensive on average than at the end of the last week.

At the moment, the price of cabbage in Ukraine is already 5 times higher on average than in December 2020. Most of the key market players do not exclude that the rise in prices may continue next week, if large farms keep refusing to sell cabbage.

Сообщение Cabbage prices in Ukraine are five times higher than last year появились сначала на EastFruit.

Unfortunately, the concerns expressed by EastFruit in the article dated 6 December about a possible ban on the imports of fruits and vegetables to Belarus are confirmed. The leadership of the republic decided to impose an additional tax on its own citizens and restrict their access to high quality fruit vegetables, berries, and nuts from January 1, 2022. The decree was published on December 7, 2021 on the National Legal internet-portal of the Republic of Belarus.

We note that Ukraine is not included in the list of countries from which the imports of fruit and vegetables is prohibited. Unexpected was the inclusion of non-EU countries in this list – not only the United States, Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Northern Ireland, but also countries such as Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, which are not sanctioned by Russian. At the same time, Serbia, traditionally friendly to Russia, is not included in the list.

EastFruit experts analyzed who will benefit from the embargo and how it will affect the produce business of Belarus and Russia. After all, it has long been no secret that Belarus was a major transit point on the way of food banned in Russia to its stores. Thus, by prohibiting the import of fruits and vegetables from these countries, Belarus raises prices and limits the choice for its consumers, and deprives entrepreneurs in the fruit and vegetable trade of large additional income. By the way, in addition to vegetables, fruits, berries and nuts, Belarus also bans the import of meat and poultry, dairy products, meat products, confectionery and some other categories of goods.

The ban on the supply of fruits and vegetables from the EU to Belarus is beneficial to countries that did not fall under the embargo by providing better access to the Belarusian market and de facto banning their re-exports from the EU to Russia. This will pull up the prices for fruits and vegetables in Russia, although they are already close to record highs.

Who will lose on the Belarusian embargo?
The most affected will be the consumers of vegetables and fruits from Belarus and Russia. They will have to pay more for lower quality products.

Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Greece will suffer the biggest losses. The total losses of exporters of fruits and vegetables from the EU may amount to about $300 million per year. Finding alternative markets will not be too difficult for the countries except for Poland. However, it will be a sensitive loss for EU farmers.

The rest of the countries that have come under the ban will most likely not even notice the impact of the embargo on the fruit and vegetable business. Although the loss of $10 million in exports may be sensitive for small North Macedonia.

Who benefits from the embargo?

It may sound strange, but the decision is most beneficial for Ukraine, which will now be able to supply higher volumes of fruits, vegetables and potatoes to Belarus. Ukraine is neighboring Belarus and annually supplies it with fresh fruits and vegetables worth $20-30 million.

In the context of the crisis in the fresh apple market #freshapplecrisis, the embargo will be a real gift for Ukraine, because apple prices remain extremely low there, especially for outdated varieties that are in demand only in Russia and Belarus. Given the lack of competition from Poland, apple sales may grow from January 1. However, importers will try to import as many products from the EU as possible by the end of the year. Belarus is also actively importing carrots, potatoes, frozen vegetables and greenhouse tomatoes from Ukraine this year.

It must be taken into account that Ukraine can also be included in the decree at any time.

The embargo is no less beneficial for Moldova. As in the case of Ukrainian apples, there are many outdated varieties that will be easier to sell to Belarus now. Moldova will also be able to improve the sales of table grapes, although their stocks are quite low this year. In the summer season, many fruits and berries from Moldova will find their way to the markets of Russia and Belarus easier. An additional potential benefit is an increase in re-exports from the EU to Russia through Moldova.

The embargo will be beneficial for Serbia, as well. After all, Serbia is not on the list, which means that the apples imports to Belarus will slightly increase. However, the priority of this destination for Serbia is decreasing now. Serbia also supplies high volume of stone fruit and blueberries to the Russian market and, partially, to the Belarusian market. By the way, Serbia can become a re-export hub for Russia instead of Belarus, although there was a scandal on this matter a couple of years ago and the volume of re-exports has dropped sharply then.

The ban will also benefit the countries of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, the profitability will not be so obvious, since Belarus does not import much from them and logistics remains complicated and expensive. Given the lack of alternatives, Belarus may still increase purchases of stone fruits and early vegetables from Central Asian countries. To a much lesser extent, Georgia will receive its share of the benefits.

Turkey will receive multiple benefits from the embargo as it is the only country that can replace almost all the goods that Belarus will not be able to import from the EU. The situation on the Russian market may also become more favorable for Turkish suppliers. The situation is beneficial for Iran, too.

Citrus exporters from Morocco and Egypt will also be able to increase sales in the Belarusian market in the absence of competition from Spain, Greece and Italy.

Сообщение Belarus bans the imports of fruits, vegetables, and nuts from the EU, the United States and other European countries появились сначала на EastFruit.

On December 6 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus made a statement on “the introduction of a ban on the imports into the territory of the country of a number of goods originating from states applying illegal anti-Belarusian sanctions.” Although the list of goods has not been announced, market participants fear that Belarus will try de-facto to duplicate the so-called “counter-sanctions of Russia”. They were a response to economic sanctions against Russia by a number of influential countries after the annexation of the Ukrainian Autonomous Republic of Crimea by Russia.

If this is the case, the sale of fruit and vegetables may also fall under the ban. This means that one of the most reliable channels for the supply of fruits and vegetables from Ukraine and the EU countries to the Russian market may be blocked.

Who will suffer from such a ban if it is introduced?

First of all, these are consumers in Belarus itself and in Russia. Prices for a number of basic products, such as “borsch set” vegetables and potatoes, are already breaking records in 2021 in these countries. And it is the EU countries and Ukraine that are now making up for the deficit of these products on the Belarusian market.

If we talk about the suppliers that will lose more than others on a hypothetical ban, then this is primarily Poland. During the period of the Russian sanctions, Poland supplied to Belarus fruits and vegetables worth up to $400 million. Although the volume of imports of fruits and vegetables from Poland to Belarus fell sharply in 2020, and re-exports became more complicated, it still remains quite sensitive.

Spanish suppliers of fruits and vegetables will lose much less – up to $70 million. Also, the volumes of supplies of fruits and vegetables to Belarus from the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece and Italy remain quite large. It is not clear whether the sanctions will be extended to Ukraine, but if so, it will be a significant blow to Ukrainian growers of fruit and vegetables of low or average quality, that are currently sold mainly to Belarus.

Commodity items imported from the EU to Belarus in the largest volumes are apples, citrus fruits, berries, grapes, apricots and cherries. At the same time, it is obvious that Belarus will find an alternative to them by purchasing from Turkey, Morocco, Egypt and Central Asian countries. However, consumers will have to pay a higher price for this.

Therefore, it is not obvious yet that the ban will affect food products. After all, high prices for them are still a rather sensitive topic in Belarus.

Сообщение Will Belarus ban the imports of fruits and vegetables from the EU and Ukraine? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Over the past two weeks, wholesale prices for apples of the Golden and Golden Delicious varieties have been dynamically growing in Moldova. If at the beginning of the last decade of October traders paid an average of 5.5 MDL/kg ($0.31/kg), then last week at 7 MDL/kg($ 0.4 /kg). At the beginning of the current week prices for high quality apples of Golden Delicious variety were shipped from cold storage facilities to Russian supermarket chains and importers at 10.5 MDL/kg ($0.57-0.60/kg). Apples had to be sorted, large size and packed in the cartons.. The price level is already comparable (and even slightly higher for high-quality products) with the average and maximum prices for apples of the mentioned varieties in the first half of November last year.

But managers of large horticultural and commercial enterprises believe that analogies with last year’s situation are not correct. In their opinion, at the end of October – beginning of November 2021, we can rather talk about an abnormal situation in the apple market of the Russian Federation. Moreover, most likely it is connected with some kind of failure in the usual system of supplying high-quality imported apples to the Russian market. Traders associate this failure with the termination for political reasons of supplies of Polish apples to the Belarusian market, and through it – to the Russian market. In such a situation, Russian wholesalers and retailers are urgently looking for a replacement, Moldovan suppliers of quality apples of certain varieties are one of the options.

However, according to the Moldovan traders themselves, the window of opportunity for them did not open for long – for maximum two or three weeks. During this period, the Polish apple may come to the Russian market through Serbian channels. Or a cheap Ukrainian apple will start to arrive in Russia through Belarus. One way or another, but until the end of November, according to traders, high price volatility is possible in the Russian market for imported apples, then the situation will stabilize.

However, experts of some trading companies drew attention to the fact that players of the European apple market made short-term attempts to raise prices back in September. They associate such intentions with a noticeable rise in the cost of production resources and materials – fuels and plant protection products, in the first place, as well as with logistical difficulties – a shortage of containers for sea transportation.

Сообщение Apple prices in Moldova are growing fast. What’s the reason? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Ukraine became the leader among non-EU countries in Eastern Europe in terms of potato prices last week for the first time. It is in Ukraine that you can buy potatoes at the lowest price. This is reported by EastFruit analysts based on the results of weekly monitoring of wholesale prices for vegetables and fruits in nine countries of the region.

According to experts, the average wholesale price for potatoes fell by 17% in a week, while in neighboring Moldova they continued to rise. Thus, prices for potatoes in Ukraine fell below the level in Moldova for the first time in the season. By the way, potatoes in Ukraine are only 15-20% cheaper than last year, however, given rising potato prices in other countries of the region, this is enough to become a price leader.

The decline in the potato price further widened the gap between potato prices in the markets of Belarus and Ukraine. And this has become an even larger stimulus for the growth of exports of Ukrainian potatoes to Belarus. Since the prices for potatoes in Russia were even higher than in Belarus, some of Ukrainian potatoes may also enter the Russian market through the mediation of traders from Belarus this season. According to unofficial statements of Belarusian traders, Russia is afraid of too rapid growth in prices for basic food products, so the re-export of “sanctioned” fruits and vegetables has allegedly become much easier again.

Potatoes in Ukraine can now be bought in bulk 2.5 times cheaper than in the Russian Federation. Since the difference in the purchase price of one batch exceeds $5,000, re-export business becomes very attractive. In addition to Belarus and the Russian Federation, Ukraine is currently exporting potatoes to Serbia and Georgia, traders say.

One should not forget that potato prices in Poland are even lower than in Ukraine. At the same time, they are almost twice higher than last year given a decrease in the yield. Potato growers hope that the recovery in demand from the HoReCa segment will increase prices even more in the future. Nevertheless, it is now profitable for Belarus to buy potatoes in Poland for re-exports to Russia and for its own needs.

The main reason for the decline in the potato price in Ukraine is the sale of leftovers not suitable for storag. Therefore, it is possible that prices will gradually recover in Ukraine with the onset of frosts and the end of the sales season.

Сообщение Ukraine offers the cheapest potatoes in Eastern Europe появились сначала на EastFruit.