EastFruit analysts in their study of trends in the global frozen raspberry market noted that Russia has become second in the world in terms of increasing imports of frozen raspberries after Poland.

Notably, despite the rapidly growing global prices for raspberries, Russia continued to increase imports in 2021. Since the raspberry harvest in Serbia has fallen sharply, imports from Serbia have also declined, and alternative suppliers have had to be sought.

Thus, the imports of raspberries produced in the EU countries and Ukraine and supplied through Belarus has grown sharply. Imports of frozen raspberries from Belarus to Russia increased by a third and reached 14 000 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2021. However, noteworthy was the involvement in this business of new countries that had not previously exported frozen raspberries to Russia.

We already wrote that frozen raspberries were exported to Russia by Uzbekistan for the first time. According to market participants, Uzbek enterprises bought fresh raspberries for freezing even in neighboring Tajikistan! The supply of frozen raspberries from Uzbekistan to Russia reached quite an impressive 144 tonnes in 10 months of 2021, which allowed Uzbek exporters to earn more than $570 000 in export earnings.

Also, frozen raspberries were exported to Russia in large volumes by Kazakhstan, Morocco and Georgia for the first time. Moldova, on the other hand, increased the export of frozen raspberries to Russia by 4 times to 222 tonnes, and Kyrgyzstan – by almost 3 times to 240 tonnes.

Сообщение Russia expands frozen raspberry imports despite high prices появились сначала на EastFruit.

There were many successes for the fruit and vegetable business of Ukraine in 2021, even though it was difficult. According to EastFruit estimates, Ukraine’s  revenues from exports of fruit and vegetables will be record high by the end of 2021, as will the income of farmers.

However, not all segments of the fruit and vegetable market were doing so well – for example, potato and apple growers may not be quite happy with this year. There was a complete failure in the segment of walnuts in the first half of the year, which also unexpectedly turned into a seller’s market. There were many complaints from strawberry and blueberry growers in 2021, but those who had productive raspberry plantations, as well as sellers of raspberry seedlings, were on a roll.

There were significant changes both in fruit and vegetable retail and in Ukrainian vegetable growing.

We present our version of the TOP-10 events in the Ukrainian produce business in 2021, among which there are many price and exports records or anti-records.

The hyperlinks in the text will allow you to catch up on our publications on this specific issue in more detail.

1. Record high global prices for raspberries provoke a raspberry boom in Ukraine

The global frozen raspberry market unexpectedly started warming up in the second half of 2021. The main reason was a reported sharp decline in the harvest of raspberries in Serbia – the main raspberry exporter in the world. At the same time, the rise in prices exceeded expectations. They reached records in July and kept growing, as low raspberry prices have been convincing processors from the dairy, confectionery, bakery and other sectors of the food industry for several years to diversify their production. Therefore, fears of a shortage of raspberries forced importers to sharply increase their purchases.

The rise in prices coincided with the start of the harvesting season of summer raspberry varieties in Ukraine, so prices began to grow rapidly. In some regions, prices for frozen raspberries exceeded $4/kg in 2021 – 10 times higher than 2-3 years ago! In other words, raspberries took away the title of the most expensive berries on the market from blueberries in 2021, because they were more expensive than blueberries in some regions in summer!

Thus, Ukraine exported raspberries to the USA and Canada for the first time, which was a meaningful event for the industry. According to our estimates, the exports of frozen berries will bring Ukraine about $200 million in s earnings in 2021, becoming the main source of income for the fruit and vegetable sector. Of course, it is the merit of expensive raspberries.

The EastFruit analyst team prepared two notable materials on the state of affairs on the global raspberry market, showing that Ukraine is the current leader in the growth rate of global frozen raspberry exports, while Poland, the main importer of raspberries from Ukraine, is the fastest to increase the imports. You can also find a detailed analysis of the markets in the main exporting and importing countries of frozen raspberries there. They are full of surprises.

Naturally, interest in the establishment of raspberry plantations has sharply increased in Ukraine, both on the part of large investors and private households. Even they made good money on raspberries in 2021! Those who had only 0.1 hectare of raspberries could earn up to 100 000 UAH (about $4 000) per season selling raspberries.

Taking into account the rush, we have prepared the material “Raspberry Boom 2”, which became one of the most discussed and cited materials on berries in 2021 not only in Ukraine, but in Poland, too. In this article, we recalled raspberries dropping to 8 UAH/kg after a period of high prices, mass planting and explained the consequences of what is happening now. Of course, we took into account the availability of capacities for deep freezing of berries in Ukraine and the impact of high prices for raspberries on their global consumption. We also considered the fact that raspberries are planted not only in Ukraine – in 2021, a huge demand for seedlings was observed in Serbia, Croatia, Poland, Moldova and even in the countries of Central Asia, where raspberries were not previously grown in large volumes.

We have also prepared a handy checklist before investing in the raspberry business – “Should I plant raspberries? Checklist to define all the pros and cons” which was much cited by the berry industry.

2. Ukraine’s potato disappointments: imports and low prices

Potato markets in literally every country of the region was turned upside down in 2021. There were many records everywhere, but, perhaps, there were the most of them in Ukraine.

After the 2019/20 season, when Ukraine became one of the largest potato importers in the world, importing almost half a million tonnes in one season, mainly from Russia and Belarus, Ukraine continued to massively import in the 2020/21 season. However, everything changed dramatically at the beginning of the 2021/22 season – potato imports dropped sharply, and exports began to grow for the first time in three years.

Much has changed in neighboring countries: Belarus and Russia faced drought in production regions. The area planted with potatoes in Russia has significantly decreased, as prices have remained low for too long. Therefore, Belarus began to import potatoes during its own harvest, and there was a rush on the Russian market – potato prices were increasing every day. The threat of a shortage became real, given that Russia had banned many countries from supplying potatoes to its market.

Therefore, it was the turn of Ukraine to supply potatoes to Belarus and Russia, since Belarus has long been known as the largest re-exporter of “sanctioned” fruits and vegetables to Russia. At the same time, Ukraine exported potatoes even to Serbia, while importing from Moldova. But Moldova has been the main sales market for potatoes from Ukraine for many years! This is an extremely unusual season.

However, these were not all of the surprises of the potato market in 2021. Despite high exports, potato prices in Ukraine remained the lowest in the region! The situation was aggravated by the fact that the exports of Ukrainian potatoes to Belarus stopped due to changes in safety requirements for imported potatoes. The supply of potatoes from Ukraine to the EU was also impossible, and there was only the domestic market left.

 The average wholesale price for potatoes in Ukraine in the first 6 months of the 2021/22 season was 15% lower than in the previous season and 37% lower than in the first 6 months of the 2019/20 season. But the cost of potato production has increased significantly!

Thus, the issue of the quality of potatoes grown in Ukraine became relevant again, after it was raised at the beginning of the year by Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). In his opinion, the low quality of Ukrainian potatoes is the main reason for price collapses and the unprofitability of growing, alternating with periods of large imports. EastFruit asked a foreigner’s opinion of Ukrainian potatoes in supermarkets, and Andriy Yarmak gave detailed calculations of how many billions potato growers, supermarkets and consumers annually lose on low-quality and dirty potatoes on the shelves.

During the largest annual conference “Fruits and Vegetables of Ukraine 2021”, Thomas Carpenter, a potato grower from Ireland, confirmed that it is the low potato quality that is holding back the development of the potato industry in Ukraine. His experience in growing potatoes in Ukraine and the defect rates he got on Ukrainian fields compared to what his Ukrainian colleagues get were eye-opening. However, it is gratifying that many Ukrainian potato growers began to turn to Thomas for advice after his presentation at the conference. Let’s hope for at least some progress in this area and for the potato growing of Ukraine entering the phase of sustainable development.

3. Walnut – price records and anti-records

The beginning of 2021 was really bad for Ukrainian walnut growers. Global prices were at record lows, and premium-quality American walnuts, mainly of the Chandler variety, were shipped to Europe cheaper than the cost of growing them in Italy and France. Walnut seedlings were not sold in Ukraine at all, and our analytical material “Walnut prices in Ukraine keep going down – temporary blip or end of an era?” published in January attracted great interest.

In addition to low global prices and low demand for Ukrainian walnuts in foreign markets, there were changes in the regime of exports of Ukrainian walnuts to Turkey. In contrast to duty-free imports from other countries, the duty on the import of walnuts from Ukraine led to an almost complete halt in supplies to Turkey. But Turkey is the world’s largest importer of inshell walnuts, and Ukraine used to exports more than half of its walnuts to Turkey.

Of course, this could not go unnoticed. There were first reports of uprooting fruit-bearing walnut orchards in Ukraine in spring. Naturally, the results of the 2020/21 season turned out to be disappointing for Ukrainian walnut exporters – a collapse in exports and revenue volumes.

However, everything changed dramatically even before the start of the new season. Severe drought in California and water shortages have led to a sharp decline in walnut yields in the United States. The USA is the global leader in the exports of walnuts, exporting mainly premium-quality walnuts. That’s why, market changes in the United States always directly affect global prices. Thus, global prices for walnuts began to rise sharply in June 2021.

Therefore, the 2021 walnut harvest in Ukraine started with quite high prices. Moreover, even walnuts of the 2020 harvest, which were previously not demanded, were sold at good prices.

As a result, the exports revenue of Ukrainian walnut exporters in October 2021 increased by 43% compared to October 2020, but was still 50% lower than in 2019. Despite the growing exports of walnuts from Ukraine to the EU countries, there is still no alternative for the Turkish market.

Also, market participants pay attention to the growing competition in the region. Georgia, which used to be one of the main markets for Ukrainian walnuts, is starting to export. In contrast to Ukraine, modern walnut processing is developing well there. You can see the full cycle of growing Chandler walnuts in Georgia, including mechanized harvesting using walnut harvesters from the United States at Agrovia, here. The whole process of drying, sorting, processing, splitting and packing walnuts at the modern plant of the Georgian company Anigozi can be seen in this video. We are confident that Ukrainian companies will have a lot to learn from their colleagues in Georgia.

4. Is there a crisis of apple business in Ukraine?

The first half of 2021 greatly surprised Ukrainian apple producers. Most of them expected a sharp price rise in spring, but apple prices remained more or less stable. Moreover, apples began to fall in price in June after growing imports – the EU, Moldova, Iran and Turkey entered the spring-summer period with record high apple stocks. As a result, apple processing plants started operating in Moldova again, and it was very difficult to sell apples in Ukraine.

This set a negative tone for the new season. After all, the demand for early summer apple was low, and the forecasts for the 2021 harvest were unpromising. A good harvest was expected, but the price forecasts were disappointing.

Our forecasts of a difficult apple season in 2021/22 described in the article #freshapplecrisis have so far been confirmed. As a result, prices for high-quality apples in Ukraine dropped to their lowest level over the past three years in early October this year. Nonetheless, there was still no demand in this segment even after selling prices dropped to 5 UAH/kg ($0.19/kg).

However, later there was a series of unexpected positive news that could smooth over the damage. For example, wholesale apple prices in Ukraine have not dropped to the level of the 2018/19 season. Many believe that apple stocks this year are not lower than then, and higher prices are due to increased storage capacity in new modern fruit storage facilities.

The main positive news for Ukrainian farmers was the decision of Belarus to ban the import of apples and other vegetables and fruits from the EU and a number of other countries from 1 January 2022, and not to include Ukraine in this list. Of course, Ukraine can still be added to it, but this has completely changed the market situation so far – Belarus has sharply increased the import of Ukrainian apples. This means that many Ukrainian farmers will not uproot apple orchards with old apple varieties, and investments in apple processing and the motivation to find new markets will slow down again.

Let us recall that despite the fears, the loss of access to the Russian market became a very positive event for the produce industry and helped Ukraine to sharply increase the exports of fruits, berries and nuts, increasing the proceeds from their sale. This became possible because investments in improving the quality of fruit and vegetable pay off well. Access to the Russian market does not encourage growers to make changes for the better, and, as the example of Moldova shows, the country is losing its position even in the Russian market. Moreover, while Moldova was experiencing difficulties exporting apples to Russia, Ukraine and Poland were actively supplying to Russian supermarket chains in spring 2021, as they offered apples of appropriate quality.

Nevertheless, one cannot but rejoice at the attempts of the industry to strengthen its positions. In particular, due to the apple price crisis, the Ukrainian Horticultural Association launched the first fruit trading platform operating on the basis of cooperation.

5. The collapse of prices for strawberries

In 2021, prices for the most popular berry in Ukraine brought a lot of surprises. The season for peak harvesting of strawberries in Ukraine began later than usual, so prices in mid-May were record high.

However, prices began to decline sharply at the very beginning of the season, promising a real collapse. Independent analysts also pointed to this possibility, believing that the strawberry harvest in the country will be possibly one of the highest in recent years. This is what happened – prices for Ukrainian strawberries remained extremely low from May 21 to July 8 inclusively. Freezing enterprises that have dramatically increased their capacities in Ukraine were in no hurry to buy them for processing, as there were lots of very cheap frozen strawberries from Egypt left on the global market. This led to prices remaining at record lows throughout the season.

This had a direct impact on the apple market – the abundance of cheap strawberries (and cherries) partly affected the prices of Ukrainian apples, the demand for which fell sharply at the end of May.

Сообщение Ukraine: TOP-10 events of the Ukrainian produce business in 2021 (part I) появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw the attention of Ukrainian exporters to a very promising, but still new market of frozen raspberries – Japan. According to our estimates, Japan increased imports of raspberries by 25% in value terms and by 5% in volume in 2021. Given a sharp rise in global prices for frozen raspberries, many countries are reducing their imports, but Japan continued to increase purchases.

“First of all, Japan is notable as one of the most stable markets in the world, demonstrating a steady growth trend. The second reason why Ukrainian exporters should pay attention to the Japanese market is a high level of prices with high quality requirements. The third reason is that the main competitors of Ukraine, Serbia and Poland, are already supplying frozen raspberries to Japan, and Serbia is their second largest supplier to China after Chile.” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Chile and Serbia provided up to 65-70% of all frozen raspberry supplies to the Japanese market in 2021. New Zealand and the United States account for another 12% of the total volume of Japanese raspberry imports. The share of frozen raspberry imports from Denmark, Poland and France is about 2% each.

Noteworthy, even Bosnia and Herzegovina is exporting frozen raspberries to Japan, but there has not been a single supply from Ukraine so far. At the same time, Ukraine continues to supply the bulk of its raspberries to Poland, which, in turn, makes good money on their re-export.

Recall that in 2021, Ukraine made some progress when it exported Ukrainian raspberries to the United States and Canada for the first time. According to our estimates, the exports of frozen berries brought Ukraine about $200 million in exports earnings in 2021, becoming the main source of income for the fruit and vegetable industry. The rise in prices for raspberries, according to EastFruit analysts, has become the main event among the TOP-10 events of the fruit and vegetable market in 2021. Given the rush around raspberries, “Raspberry Boom-2” is about to start in the country and disappoint many investors.

By the way, Ukraine has become the leader in the growth rate of frozen raspberry exports in the world, while Poland is the fastest to increase the volume of raspberry imports. This proves once again that the access of Ukrainian suppliers to the frozen raspberry market in Japan is currently topical.

Сообщение Ukraine should pay attention to Japan’s growing frozen raspberry market появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit experts draw attention to the huge interest in the cultivation of raspberries in all countries of the region given a record rise in global prices for frozen raspberries since summer 2021. The interest is especially high in Ukraine, where quite a few modern enterprises for freezing berries are already operating. There is also a boom in investments in new freezing capacity for raspberries, as well as other berries, fruits and vegetables.

We are approached by fairly large farmers growing grain, oilseeds and other crops, who would like to diversify their business. In addition, Ukrainians are actively buying raspberry seedlings, regardless of their origin and quality. As a rule, households buy seedlings for 0,05-0,25 ha and rarely for large areas.

Should grain growers, as well as households, invest in raspberry cultivation? Many of those who did not invest, still doubt. Experts will give a comprehensive answer to this question during the 17th international conference “Fruits and Vegetables of Ukraine 2021. New Investment Opportunities” to be held on December 3, 2021 in Kyiv as part of the FTrade Club.

In particular, FAO economist Andriy Yarmak will show a strategic comprehensive approach to this business in his presentation “30 years of mistakes in investments in the fruit and vegetable sector of Ukraine and real solution  to reach promising profitable and sustainable investments. TOP-10 most interesting actual market niches”. The efficiency of investments in cultivation will be revealed by Olexandr Yareschenko, Deputy Director of the Institute of Horticulture of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Taras Bashtannyk, President of the Ukrainian Horticultural Association (UHA). Yulia Tymoshenko, who has experience in creating from scratch and developing a modern business of freezing and exporting berries will cover the efficiency of freezing raspberries.

Now we offer everyone who considers planting raspberries, to try and come to preliminary conclusions by answering a number of simple questions.

1. Do you know the history of the pricing of raspberries and the reasons why their prices periodically fell below production cost, or skyrocketed to very high levels? If not, we advise you to read our article “Raspberry Boom 2”, which partially answers these questions. We will tell you more at the conference mentioned above.
2. Raspberries are not cereals. Do you realize that the result of growing raspberries is much more dependent on the qualifications of experts, weather risks are much higher, more operations per hectare need to be carried out and material costs per hectare are much higher? In addition, the business is planned for many years, and exit from it threatens with a complete loss of investment, while in cereals you can change the crop or variety for the next year of production.
3. Do you realize that growing raspberries will require hiring a large number of seasonal workers (3 to 5 per hectare), to whom adequate conditions for work, food and possibly housing should be provided?
4. Will the raspberries be grown for freezing or for the fresh market? Do you know which varieties are best for freezing and which ones for the fresh market and why?
5. Do you understand the huge difference in growing technology, harvesting phases, processing and packaging of raspberries for the fresh market or freezing?
6. Do you have the option of cooling raspberries after harvesting?
7. Do you know for sure where you will sell your raspberries and do you have options B, C, D and E if this distribution channel abandons the products, which is quite often the case?
8. Do you know the key indicators of the quality of raspberries from the point of view of the buyer, and how this affects the price?
9. What varieties of raspberries will be grown: summer or remontant and why?
10. Are you familiar with the weather and market risks when growing raspberries? By the way, you can read about effective methods of dealing with weather risks here.
11. Did you know that global demand for raspberries dropped sharply after a sharp rise in prices in mid-2021 and some countries started to cut imports? If not, we covered it partially here.
12. Do you know about the potential of the global market for freezing berries, fruits and vegetables, as well as the main factors influencing its development?

These are just a few general questions, to which we have already partially answered. We will reveal them in more detail on December 3 in Kyiv at the 17th international conference “Fruits and Vegetables of Ukraine 2021. New Investment Opportunities”.

We believe that investing in raspberry cultivation in Ukraine is quite profitable even now, but only provided there is a clear understanding of the strategy and all the nuances of such investments. We will give you all the necessary information for building the right strategy for the raspberry business on the conference on December 3rd in Kyiv. Registration for the event is open here.

Сообщение Should I plant raspberries? Checklist to define all the pros and cons появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, the first shipment of frozen raspberries from Uzbekistan to the Russian market in August 2021 was successful. Therefore, several batches were exported at once in September.

In total, Uzbekistan has exported 83 tonnes of frozen raspberries to Russia in August-September. This is a relatively small volume, especially if you look at the export volume records noted in Ukraine recently. However, the very fact of Uzbekistan’s entry into a very profitable segment of the exports of frozen berries is very indicative. The main challenge for Uzbek producers of frozen berries and fruits in the near future will be the development of raw material sector. In our opinion, this can serve as an impetus for the development of growing a range of berry crops, such as raspberries, strawberries, blackberries, blueberries and others.

Read also: Uzbekistan significantly increased exports of frozen vegetables and fruits – analysis of exports structure and potential

By the way, only seven countries exported frozen raspberries to the Russian market in August 2021. The largest volumes of frozen raspberries were supplied to Russia by Belarus, although, most likely, it was mainly the re-export of Polish and Ukrainian berries that cannot be supplied to Russia directly. Significantly smaller volumes of frozen raspberries in September 2021 were supplied to the Russian market by China and Serbia – about 200 tonnes each.

Considering the high prices for raspberries this year, we have already written that the areas planted with them in Uzbekistan continue to expand. And quite unexpectedly for market participants, Russia has become the second fastest growing market for frozen raspberries in the world.

Сообщение Uzbekistan is increasing the exports of frozen raspberries to Russia появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, Ukraine set a new record for monthly exports of frozen raspberries in August 2021. In just one month, Ukraine sold 5.6 thousand tonnes of frozen raspberries to foreign markets, earning $21.5 million. Another record was the average export price of raspberries at $3.6 per kg.

However, these records are most likely to be broken by the end of September 2021, because it is in September that the peak of frozen raspberry exports from Ukraine is usually noted. In addition, prices and demand for frozen raspberries in the global market continued to grow in September, and Ukrainian berry growers are usually actively harvesting and processing remontant raspberry varieties this month.

The previous monthly record for the export of raspberries in physical terms was set in September 2020, when more than 4 thousand tonnes were exported from Ukraine for the first time. Accordingly, exports in August 2021 exceeded the previous record by 44% at once.

It is also interesting to look at the development of average export prices for raspberries in recent years. As you can see in the chart below, an absolutely unprecedented jump in prices occurred at the very beginning of the 2021/22 season. The record for the price is most likely to be set again in September 2021. We wrote in detail about the reasons for the rise in prices for raspberries and the consequences of such a sharp increase in the profitability of the raspberry business in the article “Raspberry Boom 2”.

“Global food prices in 2021 are breaking records. The reasons are rooted in a sharp rise in global inflation due to money supply in many countries and the disruption in the supply chains, a sharp rise in the cost of logistics and even labor shortages due to complicated movement of unskilled labor between countries. However, the rise in global prices for raspberries stands apart – in fact, they have grown more than for any other food product,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“Frozen raspberries are a very small product on a global scale. International trade in frozen raspberries accounts for less than $1 billion, or about 0.05% of international food trade and 0.7% of all fruit and vegetable trade. Its popularity has grown in recent years because of its low cost, therefore, current price rise is a consequence of a sharp rise in the popularity of raspberries. This year the main factor that led to the explosive growth in prices starting from June were the low yield and quality of raspberries in Serbia which is leading the global market” explains the FAO expert.

He also draws attention to the fact that global prices for frozen raspberries began to grow back in 2019. That’s why many countries, including Ukraine, gradually increased the areas planted with raspberries in 2020 and dramatically expanded them in 2021. Raspberry seedlings for spring 2022 are also already sold out in many countries. Therefore, the world may face another round of overproduction of this berry.

“As we have already noted in our analysis of trends in frozen raspberry imports, there has been a downward trend in imports to many of the leading importing countries in 2021 due to the rapid rise in prices for raspberries. When prices rise, consumption tends to decline. Since there is a very wide and growing selection of various types of berries in the world, there is something to replace raspberries for producers of yoghurts, smoothies, confectionery and bakery products. If production grows and, at the same time, demand decreases, the consequences can be bad for prices,” warns Andriy Yarmak.

EastFruit experts believe that as early as next season, growers will not be able to count on the same high level of raspberry prices, unless affected by unfavorable weather condition . By the way, you can read about how to protect a raspberry plantation from frost here.

You can read more about leading countries in the growth rate of frozen raspberry exports in this article, and about the leading countries in terms of import growth – here.

A detailed analysis of the prospects for the berry business in Ukraine and strategies for its development, will be presented by the leading berry experts of the region during the 17th international conference “Fruits and Vegetables of Ukraine-2021. New Investment Opportunities” on December 2-3, 2021 in Kyiv (Ukraine). In order not to miss this event, register to participate via this link.

Сообщение Raspberry records of Ukraine – frozen raspberries bring more and more revenues to the country’s horticultural sector появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to a sharp increase in the exports of fruits, berries and nuts to Germany in the first three quarters of 2021 compared to previous years. Ukraine’s revenue from fruit and berry exports to Germany in this period amounted to $15.7 million, increasing by 71% compared to 2020 and becoming a record.

What fruits and nuts did Ukraine export to Germany in January-September 2021? The main revenue to Ukraine was brought by the exports of frozen raspberries, which grew 3.3 times to $5.7 million. The second position in exports was also taken by berries, but wild ones – the export of frozen wild blueberries and other wild berries to Germany from Ukraine increased by 82% comparing to 2020, up to $5.5 million. Furthermore, relatively small batches of fresh raspberries, sweet chestnuts and one batch of fresh cherries were delivered to Germany for the first time.

Although the export of Ukrainian walnuts to Germany increased by 28% in volume, the total proceeds from it remained almost unchanged. A decrease in exports was noted in the segment of frozen strawberries, watermelons and apples.

Thus, Ukraine continued its expansion into key EU markets that started even before the Russian embargo on food supplies from Ukraine to Russia was introduced and accelerated sharply after it. In addition to Germany, Ukraine increased the exports of nuts, berries and fruits to the markets of other EU countries in the first 9 months of 2021: Poland (by 85%), France (by 22%), the Netherlands (by 86%), Italy (by 70%), Austria (35%), Lithuania (95%) and others. Notably, the first 8 countries in the ranking of the main markets for Ukrainian fruits, berries and nuts in 2021 are the countries of the European Union, and only 9^th and 10^th positions are taken by Azerbaijan and Turkey. The first eight EU countries account for 72% of all Ukraine’s fruit exports!

Read also: Ukraine offers the cheapest potatoes in Eastern Europe

By the way, exports to Belarus, which, in part, is a transit point on the way of Ukrainian fruits to the Russian market, decreased by 39% in 2021.

Сообщение Ukraine sharply increased exports of berries, fruits and nuts to Germany and other EU countries in 2021 появились сначала на EastFruit.

After the analysis of the competition among exporters in the global frozen raspberry market showing that Ukraine is a global leader in terms of its exports growth, EastFruit experts paid attention to imports. After all, it is the growth in demand, and hence in imports, that allows to increase the exports of raspberries.

Who are the main global importers of frozen raspberries, and what trends have been noted in these countries in recent years?

To assess the volume of the raspberry market and the specific weight of different countries, we used quantitative indicators, since raspberry prices can vary largely in different countries.

We conducted a quick, unrepresentative survey of raspberry growers of the Ukrainian berry business, and few of them answered correctly when asked who is the largest importer of frozen raspberries in the world. In fact, the global leader in the import of raspberries is Germany. By the way, it became the second largest sales market for Ukrainian frozen raspberries in 2020.

Every fifth kilogram of exported frozen raspberries in the world is supplied to Germany – 2.7 times more than France, second in this ranking. Note that the rating of importers was compiled on the basis of the average data over the past five years, but in 2020 the United States pushed France to second position in terms of imports of frozen raspberries.

Accordingly, the United States ranks third in terms of imports of frozen raspberries in the world, being significantly ahead of other importers in terms of volumes.

As you see, the concentration of raspberry imports in the world is average, because the first three countries together import less than half, namely 39% of all raspberries.

Among the top 10 importers, there were also trading countries – those importing frozen raspberries mostly for further re-export. These are, first of all, Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland. Moreover, if the first two are net importers, due to extremely low volumes of domestic production with high volumes of consumption, Poland is a net exporter ranking second in the world by a large margin from the third in terms of net exports.

How many countries import exotic raspberries?

It is very important for the raspberry market participants to understand that there are not so many countries importing frozen raspberries. This is not because they grow them themselves, but because raspberries are quite exotic for many countries. Since there are no traditions of growing and consuming raspberries in many countries where the climate allows their cultivation, frozen raspberries are not imported here either.

The second important aspect limiting the demand for frozen raspberries is the low knowledge level of the benefits of using frozen berries, fruits and vegetables.

“During our trade missions to ASEAN countries, primarily Malaysia and Singapore, we discovered that fresh raspberries are available in retail at about $40 per kg, and you can find raspberry smoothies on the menu in restaurants. Fresh raspberries are usually supplied to supermarkets from Chile or the United States, but there was almost no import of frozen raspberries. When we asked restaurateurs where they get raspberries for smoothies, they said they buy them in the supermarket, freeze and use for smoothies! They were extremely surprised when they learned that tastier frozen raspberries could be bought at $3-4 per kg – 10 times cheaper!”, – says Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“Thus, there is a huge potential for the development of frozen raspberry global consumption, both by promoting the consumption of raspberries and frozen products in general. After all, most people in the world have never tasted raspberries. As a rule, consumers like this berry in smoothies, teas, juice, dairy such as yoghurts, in confectionery and bakery, and, of course, fresh,” the FAO expert explains.

Low global prices for frozen raspberries in 2017-2019 helped make them more popular, and many tried raspberry flavored products for the first time during this period. This became the basis for the growth in consumption and prices for raspberries in 2021.

Nevertheless, only 12-15 countries now import more than 10 thousand tons of raspberries annually, many of them for subsequent re-export. More than 1 thousand tons of raspberries a year are bought by only about 35 countries! This is both good and bad. It is bad because the market is limited. On the other hand, the potential for its growth is really great, but not at the high prices that prevail at the moment.

Where do consumers come from? Which countries are increasing imports of frozen raspberries faster than others?

We have mentioned that Poland is rapidly increasing imports of raspberries, but remains the second largest importer of this berry in the world. It will be interesting for Ukrainian exporters to know that many global leaders are increasing their imports.

For example, the average annual growth in frozen raspberry imports to Serbia that remains the undisputed leader in the global market is 12% or 1.4 thousand tons per year. Thus, Serbia is the 12th largest raspberry importer in the world! Chile is also rapidly increasing imports by as much as 20% annually.

Why would exporters import raspberries? What does this mean?

In our opinion, this suggests that marketing in any business is the key to success. Serbs, Poles, Chileans and other countries that sell a lot of raspberries for exports can use their own channels to resell raspberries from other countries – this is additional income! We wrote more about this in the article “How much money does Ukraine give to Poland when exporting berries?“.

However, not only re-exporters are increasing the volume of raspberry imports. In the top 20 largest countries importing frozen raspberries, only three have reduced their imports, and 17 have increased them over the past five years. In the top 10, only France reduced the import of raspberries.

We took the top 11 largest importers of raspberries for the chart, since these are the countries that, on average, have imported more than 10 thousand over the past 5 years, excluding re-exports. We have already mentioned which country was a major re-exporter. It remains to add only Belarus that helped Russian importers bypass Russian “anti-sanctions”.

Notably, it was Poland that topped the list of countries with the fastest growing raspberry imports in the world. It imports 16% or 3.4 thousand tons of raspberries more every year. In this article, we analyzed the reasons for the decline in raspberry production in Poland and the increase in imports, one of which is competition from Ukraine.

Russia is second in the world in terms of growth rates of frozen raspberry imports. Obviously, this is due to the growth of production in the food industry of the country, where raspberries are used more and more. However, the berry business in Russia is extremely underdeveloped and local commercial production is severely limited, especially in the raspberry segment. Accordingly, the Russian Federation is forced to increase imports of raspberries from other countries. Moreover, it is Belarus that is one of the key exporters of raspberries to Poland, but Belarus itself has become one of the global leaders in imports.

The third and fourth positions in terms of the growth rate of frozen raspberry imports are taken by Canada and the United Kingdom. The first one annually imports 2 thousand tons more, and the second – 1.8 thousand tons more. Relative growth rates also remain high. This year, Ukraine has already supplied at least one batch of raspberries to Canada and the United States, so they may become more traditional markets for the suppliers of our region.

The UK also appears to be a fairly promising sales market, especially given Brexit. Until recently, the suppliers of frozen raspberries from Serbia and Poland dominated here, but the growth of the quality parameters of frozen raspberries produced in Ukraine and Moldova will create new opportunities for their export to the UK.

Also, good opportunities open up in the US market, which is quite capacious, with prices being almost always very attractive. Therefore, this market should become one of the strategic ones for any supplier of high-quality products.

As you see in the chart, France is the only country that has reduced raspberry imports over the past five years. However, this does not prevent it from remaining one of the three largest markets for frozen raspberries in the world. It is gratifying that Ukrainian exporters are already actively supplying raspberries there.

What trends are noted in the import of frozen raspberries in 2021?

Frozen raspberry prices skyrocketed in the summer of 2021. The sharp rise in global prices was triggered by the raspberry harvest failure in Serbia that became apparent when the harvest of summer varieties started. The demand remained high, but given such a high price level, it will undoubtedly decline.

Since prices were still relatively high in the first half of the year, many countries have already started to reduce imports in 2021. According to data for the first 7 months of 2021, more than half of the top 10 importing countries have reduced the volume of raspberry imports. This is a wake-up call, especially after the active expansion of areas planted with raspberries in Ukraine, Poland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and in many other countries. We have already written about the “raspberry boom-2 in Ukraine” – similar is expected in other raspberry-producing countries.

According to our estimates, the total volume of global raspberry imports in the first 7 months of 2021 decreased by about 5%. The top 10 global importers have reduced imports by 11 thousand tons over this period! The reduction in this group of importers may reach 25-30 thousand tons by the end of the year.

Notably, only Russia continued to actively increase imports of frozen raspberries among the top 10 importers. It increased the volume of purchased frozen raspberries by 22% at once during this period. Therefore, the growing Russian influence on the formation of regional prices for frozen raspberries should not be underestimated. Poland also increased imports by 12%, the USA by 6% and France by 4%. Austria (by 23%), Great Britain (by 18%), Canada (by 16%) and the Netherlands (by 14%) reduced imports of frozen raspberries the most dramatically.

Therefore, all producers and processors of raspberries need to take into account the reducing import volumes and replacing raspberries in recipes with other fruits and berries. After all, the high price of berries makes them less attractive for the food industry of importing countries.

The strategy for the sustainable development of the raspberry business, as well as how Ukraine can become a global leader in the raspberry export in volume and in value, will be discussed in Kyiv on December 3, 2021 at the 17th international conference  “Fruits and Vegetables Ukraine 2021. New Investment Opportunities” within the framework of the #FTradeClub. You can apply for registration here. The event is supported by the Ukrainian Horticultural Association, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and FAO.

Сообщение Poland is the global leader in the growth of frozen raspberry imports: an overview of key market trends появились сначала на EastFruit.

Given the growing interest in raspberry production, especially in Ukraine, which may result in a new “raspberry boom” with negative consequences for many producers, EastFruit experts analyzed the trends in global exports of frozen raspberries.

Who is Ukraine’s main competitor in the global raspberry market? Who is the fastest to increase raspberry exports? Which countries are net exporters and which ones prefer re-export? What is happening with the production of raspberries in Poland? We will answer these and other questions in this article and support them with figures and facts.

Competitors of Ukraine in the global frozen raspberry market

If we ignore the re-exporting countries, the leaders of the global frozen raspberry market and the main competitors of Ukraine are Serbia, Poland, Chile, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mexico and China. Given the geographic realities and the structure of exports, Chile, Mexico and China can be partially excluded from this list. However, given the start of supplies of Ukrainian raspberries to the USA and Canada, these countries are also becoming direct competitors of Ukrainian raspberry exporters. In addition, they are supplying more and more frozen raspberries to the EU countries, and China – to Russia.

Over the past five years, the share of these countries in global exports of frozen raspberries was as follows.

As can be seen, Ukraine closes the seven global leaders in terms of export volumes with a share of about 3% of global exports.

However, if the countries are sorted by the volume of net exports, Ukraine becomes fifth for a five-year period and fourth, if exports in 2020 are taken into account. Only Serbia, Poland and Chile remain ahead of Ukraine, although the gap between them and Ukraine remains huge. The net volume of exports of frozen raspberries and blackberries to Serbia is 132 thousand tons in 2020, and Ukraine’s – just under 21 thousand tons. It turns out that in recent years Ukraine has overtaken Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mexico and China in terms of frozen raspberry exports.

By the way, there are also Germany that exports more raspberries than Ukraine, Belgium, the Netherlands and Belarus in the global ranking of large exporters of frozen raspberries. However, all of them are net importers, that is, they import more raspberries than they export. Accordingly, they can be both sales markets and competitors for Ukraine.

What is going on with raspberry production in Poland and how does Ukraine affect it?

Poland is the closest neighbor of Ukraine, the main competitor, and, of course, the largest market for Ukrainian frozen raspberries. Also, tens of thousands of seasonal workers from Ukraine leave for Poland to harvest raspberries and other berries. Naturally, both countries compete not only in the frozen raspberry market, but also in the labor market. Who wins this competition?

Let’s first take a look at the trends in Poland.

The chart above gives the answer to this. According to EastFruit experts, the exports of frozen raspberries In Poland has remained stable over the past five years thanks to re-exports. Accordingly, Poland increases imports of frozen raspberries by 3.4 thousand tons every year, and reduces its own production of raspberries for exports by approximately the same amount.

It is interesting that Ukraine is increasing its net exports of frozen raspberries by 2.5 thousand tons on average annually over the past five years. It means it is Ukraine that greatly helps Poland to keep its export volumes at a high level, supplying its raspberries to Poland for re-export at a high price. If Ukrainian processors and exporters learn to more effectively sell raspberries directly, bypassing Poland, this will only accelerate the reduction in raspberry production in this country.

It is the development of direct exports of frozen raspberries that will allow Ukraine to compete more successfully with Poland in the labor market, because producers will receive higher prices, thus, they will be able to pay workers no less than they pay in Poland. Of course, it is not that simple – in order to pay a competitive price, you need to fulfill a number of conditions. For example, to increase the yield and quality of raspberries, as well as to collect volumes for exports.

More on how Ukraine can successfully compete in the market of raspberries and other berries, as well as the new successful UHA export platform, will be discussed during the 17th international conference “Fruits and Vegetables of Ukraine 2021: New Investment opportunities” to be held on December 3, 2021 in Kyiv. Registration of participants is open here.

Global leaders in increasing the rate of exports of frozen raspberries

According to EastFruit estimates, Ukraine has been the global leader in the relative growth rate of raspberry exports among the top 10 net exporters for the past five years and ranks second in the world in terms of the absolute growth rate of net exports. Ukraine increases the export of frozen raspberries by 17% or 2.5 thousand tons annually. We note that we used only net export rates for the analysis.

As you see can see from the above chart, only Serbia increases the exports of raspberries faster than Ukraine in absolute terms – by 8.5 thousand tons of raspberries of its own production annually. Therefore, the gap between Serbia and Ukraine in global exports continues to grow.

The good news for Ukraine is that Ukraine is successfully closing the gap with other countries in terms of export volumes, in particular with Poland and Chile, and is breaking away from Bosnia and Herzegovina, China and Mexico. Notably, Poland and Chile have been cutting net exports of frozen raspberries in recent years, giving way to competitors.

Trends in 2021

The sharp rise in global prices for frozen raspberries in 2021 caught all market participants by surprise. This was a kind of compensation for the tenacity of those farmers who did not go out of business in 2017-2018, when prices fell to incredibly low levels. We wrote about the reasons and consequences of the rise in prices in the article “Raspberry Boom 2”.

What happened to exports in 2021? How did the leaders’ positions change?

More or less reliable data is available for most of the leading countries in the exports of frozen raspberries until July 2021 inclusive. And here’s the picture.

Serbia reduced the exports of frozen raspberries in the first 7 months of 2021 by 17% compared to 2020. The exports of Serbian raspberries will also be lower in the second half of the year, because it is the decline in the raspberry harvest in Serbia that has become one of the reasons for the global rise in raspberry prices.

Poland, on the contrary, managed to increase the volume of exports of frozen raspberries by 14%, although it could not compensate for the decline in Serbia’s exports. Poland also exported much less raspberries than in the same period in 2019.

Chile also reduced the exports of raspberries by 21% – sharper than other leading suppliers. This was the lowest export volume of frozen raspberries from Chile in January-July in recent years. This means that the downward trend in the supply of Chilean frozen raspberries in recent years has persisted, and Ukraine may well come out on top in terms of net exports in the coming years.

Mexico doubled its exports of frozen raspberries in January-July in two years. Compared to 2020, exports grew by 36% – the fastest growth among all competitors.

Ukraine increased the exports of frozen raspberries by 32%, or about 2.5 thousand tons during the specified period. This means that the growth of exports can significantly accelerate by the end of 2021, as raspberries of new harvest had a minimum specific weight in the export data for July. We know that the 2021 raspberry harvest was high in Ukraine and exports in the remaining months of the year are very active.

Bosnia and Herzegovina reduced the exports of raspberries in the first 7 months of 2021 by 26% and gave way even to Slovenia. Obviously, the raspberry harvest failure noted in Serbia also affected Bosnia and Herzegovina.

China’s exports of frozen raspberries increased by 25% during the stated period. However, we do not yet have reliable information about raspberry market developments in China.

We would also notice the very sharp increase in the supply of frozen raspberries from Morocco in 2021. This North African country increased the exports of frozen raspberries 2.6 times to 5.4 thousand tons in January-July 2021. By the way, the supply of Moroccan raspberries to Poland increased the most, and Germany, Spain and Poland became their main buyers.

Сообщение Ukraine is a global leader in terms of frozen raspberry exports growth – global market analysis появились сначала на EastFruit.

Global prices for fresh and frozen raspberries are record-breaking. EastFruit wrote about the second raspberry boom in Ukraine, one of the global leaders in raspberry exports. Similar trends are noted in Serbia, Poland and other leading countries. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan mostly ignored the opportunities in the berry business until recently, despite the excellent climate and labor, the lack of which hinders the expansion of raspberry production in other countries.

However, it looks like the change is starting in Uzbekistan. EastFruit experts, with reference to the National News Agency of Uzbekistan, note that the establishment of new raspberry plantations with the total planned area of 300 hectares has started in the Fergana region of Uzbekistan.

Back in mid-August 2021, plans to expand the raspberry plantation in this region were reported. Given that the climate of the region is well suited for growing raspberries, 300 hectares of unused land were allocated for new berry plantations. Work began on soil analysis, clearing the area from stones, processing land with organic fertilizers and establishing an irrigation system, including drilling wells and installing pumps.

Read also: Record high prices push Uzbekistan to import carrots for the first time

It was planned that about 1000 families will be engaged in the production of raspberries on the new plantations in the form of cooperation. In addition, this project includes the creation of facilities for cooling, storing and freezing raspberries, as well as a processing plant.

Recently, work started on the establishment of new raspberry plantations in the “Vodil Kizilkurgan” massif.

Raspberry production in the Fergana region is concentrated in the village of Vodil with 5600 households and farms engaged in it. The total area of ​​raspberry plantations in Vodil village is 500 hectares, and the annual production is 4.4 thousand tons. Accordingly, after the project to expand raspberry plantations is implemented, their total area in the Fergana region will be 800 hectares. Raspberries in Uzbekistan are harvested 2 times a year, in May-June and August-September.

According to EastFruit analysts, there are almost no exports of raspberries from Uzbekistan for the fresh market, except for single deliveries of up to 20 tons. 120 tons were exported last year, of which about 100-110 tons were delivered to Kazakhstan and 10-15 tons to Turkey. According to the Customs Committee of the republic, from early January to mid-October 2021, Uzbekistan exported 32.3 tons of fresh raspberries. These are most likely raspberries for processing, and not for fresh consumption.

Moreover, there is almost no freezing of berries in Uzbekistan. It is freezing of berries, fruits and vegetables that would help Uzbekistan to sharply increase both the production and exports, since frozen berries can be stored for a long time and exported to almost anywhere in the world. Fresh berries, on the other hand, are much more difficult to export, especially from Uzbekistan that is far from the consumption centers. You can listen and read more about berries and fruits freezing business in the speech of Yulia Timoshenko, head of the Tiferet Company (Moldova), at the National Online Conference “Fruit and Vegetable Sector of Tajikistan – the Best Investment Niches”.

Сообщение Uzbekistan joins the raspberry boom появились сначала на EastFruit.