The war between russia and Ukraine continues to destroy the established global order and economic ties almost everywhere. Just recently, we reported on the difficult situation in the global banana market and the expected shortage of pallets in Europe. At the end of this week, citrus suppliers from South Africa announced a possible crisis, EastFruit reports citing local media Foodformzansi.co.za.

The loss of the russian market after the imposition of international sanctions will force South African citrus exporters to look for alternative markets for at least 10% of their supplies, according to the South African Citrus Growers Association (CGA). In addition to direct logistical, transport and financial issues, the situation is aggravated by the growth of production costs in the country.

Exporters from South Africa are already reporting the negative impact of russian aggression on the supply of early varieties of lemons, and the export season for grapefruits and mandarins in the country starts in April.

The loss of the export market in Ukraine for South Africa will be a minor event, as exporters have only recently started using direct supply opportunities in Ukraine. Meanwhile, russia annually consumed 7-10% of the total volume of citrus fruits exported from South Africa. For example, russian market operators imported about 168 000 tonnes of citrus fruits from South Africa in 2021.

In addition, suppliers from Morocco, Turkey and Egypt were also aimed at the russian market, and now they will be partially forced to look for alternative markets. “This could lead to an oversupply of citrus in these markets and affect the supply season for early varieties from South Africa,” said Justin Chadwick, Chairman of the CGA. “In addition, the devaluation of the ruble will make imported products in russia more expensive, and the payment system will be complicated due to financial constraints.”

In addition to problems with the export, citrus producers in South Africa also faced the negative impact of the situation in the domestic market. The cost of fertilizers in the South African market has doubled over the past year, and the prices of plant protection products have increased by 1.5 times. Also, the cost of fuel and freight increased by 30-40% in the country in 2021, and after the aggression of russia, the cost of the services of shipping companies will keep increasing due to rising oil prices.

“Major European ports, where citrus fruits are shipped from South Africa, are now overloaded, as all containers are undergoing various checks. Because of this, the transit of goods from South Africa, which previously took about 24 days, now takes up to 90 days in some cases,” adds J. Chadwick.

Сообщение Echoes of russian aggression – citrus fruits in South Africa появились сначала на EastFruit.

The average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan have decreased by 19% over the past month. However, a similar downward trend in wholesale prices for oranges was also observed in January-February 2020 and 2021, EastFruit analysts note.

From January 7 to February 11, 2022, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan decreased from 16 000 to 13 000 UZS/kg (from $1.5 to $1.2), repeating the downward trend in the same period of previous years.

The average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan in January and the first decade of 2022 were on average 25% lower than in the same period in 2021. As you see from the chart, the level of wholesale prices for oranges in this period of 2022 is very close to the price level in the same period in 2020, except for January 28.

One of the main reasons for low orange prices is the decision of the Uzbek government adopted on October 7, 2021 to exempt imports of a number of fruits, including citrus fruits, from customs duties. Prior to the decision, a customs duty rate of 10–20%, but not less than $0.2/kg, was applied when importing these fruits. Of course, the decision of the government of Uzbekistan is very positive for the country’s consumers, since Uzbekistan cannot grow oranges in large volumes due to its climate.

If we assume that the price dynamics for oranges observed in the first two months of 2020-2021 will be repeated this year, then we should expect a further decrease in wholesale orange prices in the next few weeks.

We remind you that in 2021, Uzbekistan imported a record volume of oranges over the past five years. However, the absolute values ​​of the import volume, as well as the per capita consumption of oranges in the country, remain low compared to other countries.

The main countries supplying oranges to Uzbekistan are Turkey, Egypt and South Africa, which together account for more than 80% of all imports in 2021. About 12-15% of orange imports were imported from Kazakhstan. Most likely, this was re-export.

Сообщение Oranges fell in price by almost 20% in one month in Uzbekistan появились сначала на EastFruit.

At the end of August 2021, EastFruit wrote that Uzbekistan could set the record for orange imports in 2021, set in the pre-pandemic 2019. Analysts rated this probability quite high. Preliminary statistics confirm that the volume of orange imports was 50% higher last year than in 2019 and reached a maximum over the past 5 years.

According to EastFruit analysts, Uzbekistan imported 7.9 thousand tonnes of oranges in 2021, which is 110% more than in 2020 and 55% more than in 2019.

However, the absolute value of the import volume, as well as the per capita consumption of oranges in the country, remain lower compared to other countries.

The decision of the government of Uzbekistan adopted on October 7, 2021 to exempt the imports of a number of fruits, which included citrus fruits, from customs duties also contributed to the record high orange imports. Prior to the adoption of the decision, a customs duty rate of 10–20% was applied when importing these fruits, but not less than $0.2/kg.

The government’s decision to zero import duties was an additional factor in increasing imports. A few months before the decision was made, in January-July 2021, Uzbekistan imported 4.2 thousand tonnes of oranges, which is much more than in 12 months of 2017, 2018 and 2020.

As of January 14, 2022, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan are 15 000 UZS/kg ($1.4), which is 25% lower than on the same date in 2021. If we take into account the sharp increase in logistics costs over the past year, this result exceeds all expectations, EastFruit analysts say. It is certainly very positive for Uzbek consumers, as oranges cannot be grown in large volumes due to climatic conditions there.

The main countries supplying oranges to Uzbekistan are Turkey, Egypt and South Africa, which together account for more than 80% of all imports in 2021. About 12-15% were imported from Kazakhstan. Given that Kazakhstan is not a producer of oranges, it seems that it was re-exports.

Сообщение Uzbekistan imported a record volume of oranges in 2021 появились сначала на EastFruit.

On October 21, 2021, EastFruit wrote about the decision of the government of Uzbekistan to exempt the import of a range of fruits, including bananas, kiwis, citrus fruits, fresh apples, pears, quince and other fresh and dried fruits from customs duties. Prior to this, a customs duty rate of 10-20% was applied when importing these fruits, but not less than $0.2/kg.

One month has passed since the decision was announced by the government of the republic, and analysts are noting how it has de facto affected the wholesale prices over this time. Several fruits and vegetables from the list with a zero import duty are included in the EastFruit weekly wholesale price monitoring. These are bananas, oranges, mandarins, apples and pears. How have their wholesale prices changed?

Oranges

As you see from the chart, average wholesale prices for orange began to fall from November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks, from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 30,000 UZS/kg ($2.81) to 20,000 UZS/kg ($1.86) i.e. by 50%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan are 31% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 9% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges repeat the same downward trend that was observed in November-December 2019-2020, then we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Mandarins

In contrast to oranges, the average wholesale prices for mandarins began to decline on the 20th of October. The average wholesale prices fell from 38,000 UZS/kg ($3.55) – the maximum price in the second half of 2021 recorded in mid-October, to 13,000 UZS/kg ($1.21) on 19 November 2021, i.e. almost 3 times. Obviously, the zeroing of customs duties was not the only reason for such a rapid fall in prices for mandarins, but it was one of its factors.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for mandarins are 2.5 times lower than on the same date in 2020, and 32% lower than on the same date in 2019.

Provided that wholesale prices for mandarins will repeat the same downward trend observed in November-December 2019-2020, we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Bananas

As in the case of oranges, the average wholesale prices for bananas began to fall on November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks – from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 19,000 UZS/kg ($1.78) to 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.49), i.e. by 16%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for bananas in Uzbekistan are 20% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 11% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges will repeat the same downward trend as in November-December 2019-2020, wholesale prices for bananas may be even lower by the end of 2021.

It is worth noting that current wholesale banana prices are in line with the lows recorded in January 2021.

As for apples and pears, so far no large reductions in wholesale prices have been noted.

Сообщение How did the exemption from import duties in Uzbekistan affect the prices for citrus fruits and bananas? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Exports of oranges from Turkey in 2020 increased by 41% to $129 million as compared to 2019, which was worth over $91 million abroad. Turkey exported oranges to 60 countries in 2020 and the top three importing countries of Turkish oranges were Russia at $63.4 million, Iraq at $19.1 million, and Ukraine at $15.3 million.

“The surge in demand for citrus fruits is largely due to the pandemic. Exports of citrus fruits in general in 2020 amounted to $933 million of which $347 million were mandarins,” said Hayrettin Uchak, the head of the Association of Exporters of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables of the Aegean Region of Turkey, to the Anadolu Agency.

Read also: In 2020, exports of fresh fruits and vegetables from Turkey increased by 21%

“Citrus fruits from Turkey are mainly imported by Russia. Yet, we need to find new markets and get rid of the dependence on the single market. There are no trade fairs due to the pandemic. With the opening of fairs, we will create alternative markets with individual countries by contacting them directly,” said the head of the association.

Mr Uchak noted that they plan to increase citrus exports to $950 million barring any changes in climatic conditions. He added that the domestic demand for oranges is also very high.

Сообщение Ukraine was one of the top three importers of Turkish oranges in 2020 появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit analysts, citrus fruits for the New Year’s table in Tajikistan will cost much more than a year ago. At the end of December 2020 in the wholesale horticulture market of Tajikistan, popular imported citrus fruits are on average 35% more expensive than at the same time in 2019.

The average wholesale prices for oranges also increased by 37% up to 22 somonis/kg ($1.94/kg). The most consumed citrus fruits were Pakistani mandarins, which were up by 35% to 6.5 somonis/kg ($0.59/kg). Bananas, which are now sold in bulk at 14.5 somonis/kg ($1.28/kg), also went up by 7%.

Since the cost of imported fruits is tied to the dollar exchange rate, it should also be taken into account that the rise in price is partly due to the devaluation of the Tajik somoni against the US dollar. Over the year, the Tajik national currency has lost about 17% of its value so the prices, for example, of bananas expressed in dollars were even lower than a year earlier by an average of 10%.

Read also: In 2020, over 2,200 hectares of new orchards planted in Tajikistan

It is noteworthy that in Tajikistan, mandarins are a seasonal fruit and the price of which decreases annually by January. However, even despite the recent decline in prices, they still cost significantly more than a year earlier. Yet, the price level for oranges remained the same throughout December 2020.

The main supplier of oranges to Tajikistan is Turkey and of mandarins is Pakistan. There are also mandarins from Turkey and China on sale, but they are more expensive.

Taking into account the rise in prices for imported citrus fruits against the background of lower incomes of the population, it is obvious that the volume of their imports to Tajikistan in winter will decrease. In addition, on the Tajik market in the pre-New Year period, there is a lot of high-quality and cheap locally produced apples and table grapes both of which fell sharply in 2020.

Сообщение Prices jumped this year for Pakistani mandarins and Turkish oranges in Tajikistan появились сначала на EastFruit.

The excitement leading up to New Year’s Day stimulates a rise in prices for mandarins and oranges in Ukraine according to EastFruit analysts. Market operators say the piqued interest in purchasing these citrus fruits from wholesale companies and retail chains in Ukraine is traditionally observed on the eve of the New Year’s holiday. Ukrainian importers have already managed to increase the price of mandarins and oranges despite the seasonal supply increase of these fruits.

For a week, mandarins have risen in price by an average of 10%. Today, the selling prices for these citrus fruits vary within the range of 26-48 UAH/kg ($0.93-1.73/kg). Oranges are currently on sale at UAH 33-55/kg ($1.19-1.98/kg), which is on average 22% more expensive than the end of last week.

Peak supplies and sales of these citrus fruits in Ukraine traditionally falls on December. The main suppliers of these fruits to the Ukrainian market in time for New Year’s are Georgia and Turkey. These products are also imported from Egypt.

It should be noted that in the same period last year, the cost of mandarins was 16% cheaper on average than today. Oranges have risen in price by an average of 30% over the year. Key market players explain this price difference as being due to annual changes in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia.

Сообщение Mandarin and orange prices rising in Ukraine for upcoming New Year’s holiday появились сначала на EastFruit.