In the context of the global apple business crisis, EastFruit analysts pay special attention to the countries where the consumption of imported apples continues to grow.

The largest increase in fresh apple imports in the 2020/21 season (August-July) was noted in India. The volume of apple exports to India during the season exceeded 400 thousand tonnes for the first time and reached 403.4 thousand tonnes, having doubled compared to the 2019/20 season. The previous record for apple imports to India was set in the 2016/17 season, when supplies exceeded 357 thousand tonnes.

Read also: Unexpected facts and typical misconceptions about the Indian apple market from EastFruit

Another feature of the 2020/21 season for India is that Iran has become the leader in terms of apple exports to India for the first time. Iran supplied 74.9 thousand tonnes of fresh apples, increasing exports to India threefold! Turkey became second in the rating of suppliers, slightly behind Iran with the volume of 67 thousand tonnes. We remind once again that we believe Turkey and Iran to be the main troublemakers in the global apple market, which we described in detail in the #freshapplecrisis article. You can watch a unique video about the struggle for global leadership among apple exporting countries via the link.

It is notable that the former long-term leader in apple supplies to India, the United States, continues to lose its position in this market. The United States fell to the eighth position in the ranking of exporters in the 2020/21 season, leaving ahead Iran, Turkey, Chile, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand and even Afghanistan. By the way, all the top 10 apple supplying countries to India, except for the USA, have increased their export volumes. The United States continues to reduce its presence in the Indian apple market due to trade wars initiated by the administration of the previous president of the country.

Poland turned out to be outside the top 10 largest suppliers. The volumes of Polish apple exports to India continue to decline for the third season in a row, following a relative success in the 2018/19 season. Last season, Poland reduced its export volumes by 46% at once to 5.3 thousand tonnes. France and Belgium also reduced apple exports to India.

Noteworthy is the fact that Serbia began to supply apples to the Indian market for the first time. Moreover, deliveries reached 493 tonnes in the very first season, despite the lack of experience and the remoteness of the sales market.

The import of apples from Ukraine was also noted, although there is still no official permission for the supply of apples from Ukraine to India. However, the official statistics of India registered the supply of 82 tonnes of Ukrainian apples to its market.

Besides, unexpected is China becoming a supplier of apples to India. As you know, Chinese apples have not entered the Indian market since 2017. However, countries have resumed dialogue on re-establishing market access since 2019. It seems that the access has been renewed, although there have been no official reports on this matter. China supplied 119 tonnes of apples to India in the 2020/21 season, but there have been no new deliveries since May 2021. Therefore, perhaps these were trial deliveries to verify compliance with Indian requirements. The Indian government has taken a similar approach in the case of Ukraine.

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According to EastFruit analysts, a very unexpected trend can be observed in the Indian apple market in 2021 – local consumers, who have always loved red apple varieties, suddenly started buying green and yellow apples. This confuses importers and suppliers, who are forced to promptly change apple supply plans.

EastFruit analysts tried to understand the reasons for these trends, whether they will be long-term and which suppliers will be most affected.

First of all, why do Indians traditionally prefer red apples? We wrote about this and other interesting aspects of the country’s apple market in our article “Unexpected facts and typical misconceptions about the Indian apple market from EastFruit“. Contrary to the popular opinion that red apple varieties are better sold in India because of their bright color, the true reason for the preference lies in the fact that Indians prefer sweet fruits. Therefore, they believe that green and yellow apples cannot be as sweet as red ones. however, rather sweet golden delicious spoils very quickly in a temperate climate in india, because apples are sold there without refrigeration. As a result, Golden Delicious becomes crumbly and less juicy, and consumers do not like it.

Red Delicious apples were in great demand in India for many years, and the United States exported large volumes to India. However, local importers were ready to import other red varieties at good prices as well. In addition, importers from India have recently switched to better tasting red apple varieties such as Gala, Crisp Pink, Red Prince and others. However, they were still red, sweet apples.

Why did consumers suddenly become interested in green varieties and, to a lesser extent, yellow varieties of apples? There are several reasons.

As Indian fruit market players have explained to us, the main reason is the belief of a higher vitamin C content in green apples. As vitamin C is prescribed for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19, consumers began to consider such apples healthier.

The second reason is of a similar nature. People in India are now paying attention to their health, and those who are overweight are trying to reduce their weight. Accordingly, the information that red apples contain significantly more fructose, i.e. carbohydrates than green ones, have a significant influence on purchasing decisions in favor of green apple varieties.

The third reason is a common myth that producing green and yellow apples requires fewer mineral fertilizers and plant protection chemicals than producing red apples. Accordingly, consumers believe that green apple varieties are healthier, which is important in the context of the massive spread of COVID-19 in the country. The origin of this myth is unknown, but it has a serious impact on consumers and their preferences.

Thus, the demand for Granny Smith varieties and green apples of Golden Delicious varieties with a harder texture has increased among the apple importers in India.

However, it is not easy to forecast how the preferences for apple varieties among Indian consumers will change. According to EastFruit, the demand for green apple varieties in India has not yet reached its peak, so it is likely to continue to grow and the demand for red varieties will decrease accordingly. In the future, the situation is likely to recover, as the taste preferences of consumers are not so easy to change. However, the share of green apples in the Indian market will still significantly increase in the long term compared to what it was before the Covid 19 pandemic. Nevertheless, red varieties are likely to continue to dominate the structure of apple imports to India.

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The management of a big horticultural enterprises in Moldova met with Rahul Srivastava, Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Republic of Moldova (based in Bucharest), and discussed the prospects of apple exports to the Indian market. New requirements for the import of agricultural products to India were presented to the potential exporters. In particular, apple exporters must submit, among other documents, a certificate of the absence of GMOs in their products starting this year.

According to the operators of the Moldovan fruit market, this requirement will not become an obstacle to the apple supplies for the Indian market. The National Agency for Food Safety, ANSA assured that the agency could provide certificates of the non-transgenic nature of the exported fruits. In this regard, it should be noted that genetically modified apples are not grown either in Moldova or in neighboring countries.

Moldova officially received the clearance to export apples to India on favorable phytosanitary conditions in fall 2018. Since then, Moldovan horticultural and trading companies have made several attempts to export apples to the Indian market. As the exporters noted, these attempts were not successful and “there was a mistake made on the temperature in the export chain.”

Experts of fruit producers’ associations note that red, shiny (with a clear wax film), hard, sweet and rather small apples are popular in eastern markets, including Indian. Gala, Red Chief, Fuji and, to a lesser extent, Florina varieties are in demand. In Moldova, these and similar varieties account for no more than 10% in the structure of intensive and super-intensive apple orchards.

At the beginning of the new season, the Indian side is ready to accept 10 containers of Moldovan apples as a trial batch under enhanced monitoring. If this “test” is passed successfully, large-scale and regular exports will become possible.

Сообщение Moldovan apple producers expect to export to India появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit, since March 1, apple imports to India have practically stopped due to the need for additional certification that there are no GMO apples in the supplies.

Most market participants are outraged by these requirements and consider them only an additional non-tariff trade barrier. Currently, there is only one GM apple variety in the world that is allowed for commercial cultivation in the United States, and it has never been shipped to India.

In the European Union and anywhere else in the world, there is no single genetically modified apple variety that would be allowed for commercial production. Therefore, in the opinion of representatives of industry associations, it is entirely illogical to require additional confirmation of the absence of GM varieties in the supplied batches. It increases the cost of trade, which, incidentally, will be passed on to apple consumers in India.

Read also: Unexpected facts and typical misconceptions about the Indian apple market from EastFruit

Given the situation, many countries are trying to resolve the problem through negotiations at the diplomatic level quickly. In particular, it is reported that Italy received a temporary permit for the supply of apples with a simplified form of certification, or rather, a declaration of the absence of GM apples in the batch. Chile, according to preliminary data, has already found a certification solution and continues to supply.

Simultaneously, the United States, which supplies India mainly with Red Delicious apples, which are not GMOs, are trying to force India to withdraw the requirements for GM-certification of supplies.

According to EastFruit, in 2020, India imported more than 215,000 tons of apples – 11% less than a year earlier. Thus, apple imports to India have been steadily declining for the third year in a row. In 2017, it exceeded 330,000 tons.

The leading supplier of apples to India was the United States, accounting for 19% of total imports. Although two years ago, the United States’ share in Indian imports of fresh apples exceeded 50%. Turkey took second place for the first time, with 32,000 tons of apples delivered to the Indian market during the calendar year. The third, also for the first time, was Iran with 28,000 tons. Italy, New Zealand and Chile were also major suppliers. It is also worth noting the first significant deliveries of 162 tons of apples from Serbia to the Indian market. At the same time, Ukraine dropped out of the list of apple suppliers to India and did not receive permanent exports approval.

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India is the most important market for all apple exporting countries. This country already imports about 300,000 tons of fresh apples annually and imports are growing rapidly. India is one of the four largest world apple importers, but few people really understand how this market works and what factors affect it.

EastFruit experts decided to fill this gap and explain the most common misconceptions and the most unexpected facts about the Indian apple market. We hope that this information will help in the more successful exports of apples to the Indian market.

Misconception #1 – Apples are expensive exotic fruits available only to wealthy Indians.

Indeed, India is sometimes called the “fruit basket of the world” thanks to the huge assortment of fruits produced in the country. Apples have been consumed in India since ancient times. It is a common and standard daily product just like mangos, bananas, grapes, guava, lychee, papayas, oranges, watermelon and sapota (zapota, or sapodilla). Therefore, apples are regularly bought by rich and poor Indians alike, albeit at different prices and different qualities, because the assortment of apples in India is very wide.

Misconception #2 – Apples do not grow in India because it is too hot.

After we learned that the apple is a traditional product for India, you can guess that it actually grows here. According to some estimates, India is even one of the five largest world apple producers and grows 2-3 times more apples than the whole of Ukraine! In India, there are northern mountainous and hilly states where there is agro-climatic zones ideal for obtaining high-quality apples. Overall, 2.1 to 2.9 million tons of apples are grown in India annually and the area of ​​apple orchards is estimated at 330,000 hectares. The main production is concentrated in the states of Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh (HP), and Uttarakhand. Smaller amounts of apples are grown in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur and Sikkim.

Misconception #3 – The weather is hot in India so apples are mainly sold in supermarkets and stores with refrigerators.

In fact, the situation is exactly the opposite. The bulk of apples are sold on layouts by street vendors. That is why if you sell apples to India, their hardness must be at the proper level even after delivery, otherwise it will simply not be sold in time. Also, this is what determines the preferences for apple varieties in this country.

Misconception #4 – Consumers in India prefer smaller apple sizes because the size of the fruit is easier to consume.

This may be true in some countries, but in India, the reason is quite different.  Apples, like other fruits, are traditionally sold in India by the piece and the price is set for one apple. Therefore, it is more profitable for the seller to buy small-sized apples since he can make more money from them. Why are apples in India sold by the piece? There are many reasons, but the main one is that not all sellers have scales and not all scales can be trusted. The quantity is a more objective indicator.

Misconception #5 – Consumers in India prefer a shiny apple so it is better to wax apples shipped to that country as US exporters do.

Many have seen apple sellers in India polish their waxed American fruit to shine to entice consumers. However, in recent years, waxed fruit is considered unnatural. Consumers have begun to pay attention to this and many importers now prefer unwaxed apples.

Misconception #6 – Mostly red apples are sold in India because they have a vibrant appearance like other exotic fruits. Therefore, consumers are not interested in green and yellow apple varieties.

This is untrue. Hindus prefer sweet fruits and they believe apples that are green and yellow in appearance cannot be as sweet as red ones. What about Golden Delicious apples, you ask? Yes, they can be very sweet, too. However, the Golden variety deteriorates very quickly in warm climates; becomes loose and not juicy. Therefore, it is usually not sold for that reason.

Misconception #7 – In India, consumers traditionally prefer only one apple variety – Red Delicious

In fact, this apple variety in India was very popular, but it is rapidly losing its popularity. It is being replaced from the market by the Gala variety. Consumers in India do not like the grainy flesh of the Red Delicious apple as well as its clones such as the Red Chief. The more homogeneous and juicy flesh of Gala apples is more appealing to the Indian palate.

Read also: Against the backdrop of declining apple exports from Ukraine, farmers raised prices for quality apples

Now, that we explained some top misconceptions, let’s cover the most interesting facts about the Indian apple market:

Fact #1 – Consumers in India prefer the elongated apple. Therefore, round varieties are not very popular here.

Fact #2 – It is better to deliver apples to India from Ukraine, Poland and other countries of the region after it has been in storage for 3-4 months and not immediately after harvesting. The reason is trivial: the density of the apple after storage in the CA, ULO, DCA storage and treatment with 1-MCP remains high and its juiciness does not deteriorate, but the amount of sugars continues to grow. Therefore, the apple delivered in January-April will be sweeter than these delivered in October. For Indian importers, this is an important indicator because they value their reputation with the consumer. Another reason is described below.

Fact #3 – The season of massive apple imports by India lasts from March to July. From August to December, the volume of imports remains very low due to the presence of large volumes of India’s home-grown inexpensive apples. This season may expand in India with infrastructure development for storing its own apples and increasing the technical skill level of Indian farmers.

Fact #4 – The growth in apple consumption and imports to India in recent years is due not only to an increase in income and population but for health reasons above all else. Apples are considered a healthier fruit in India than other exotic fruits.

Fact #5 – China has not supplied any apples to India since June 2017 due to the regular detection of quarantine organisms in the supply of Chinese apples. However, the situation may change because India has already agreed to carry out additional inspections of the apple safety system from China. The two countries are in the process of negotiation.

Fact #6 – The trade war between India and the United States had a negative impact on apple supplies, but the US remained the main supplier. In the first seven months of 2019, India imported only 50,000 tons of apples from the United States, while a year earlier imports for this period reached 140,000 tons. Apple suppliers from Italy benefited from this, which increased supplies more than 15 times up to 46,000 tons. Also, apple imports to India from Poland and Turkey have grown significantly.

Andriy Yarmak, an economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), believes that India can become a good market for apples from Ukraine. “The preference of Indian consumers for a juicy, hard, well-coloured and small-sized apple as well as a consolidated and well-structured apple import market in this country, represent an excellent opportunity to diversify the supply of these fruits from Ukraine. Larger apple sizes can be shipped to the EU and the Middle East, while smaller ones to India and, for example, Bangladesh. The prices for an apple that importers from India are willing to pay are very attractive for Ukrainian producers and exporters. Even when their trade disputes with the United States are resolved and the possibility of supplying apples from China to India opens up, Ukraine will have its own niche in this market because Ukrainian apples will always be preferable here in terms of taste, colour, hardness and juiciness compared to an apple from Poland,” says Andriy Yarmak.

However, Ukraine has not yet resolved access issues to the Indian apple market: “Unfortunately, our competent authorities have not yet been able to receive a response from the relevant authorities in India, despite the fact that Ukraine has long fulfilled and even exceeded the volume of trial apple supplies to this country. According to our information, the competent authorities of India did not have any complaints about the safety of Ukrainian apples, but they are in no hurry to issue a permanent permit for the imports of Ukrainian apples,” says the FAO expert.

According to Mr Yarmak’s forecasts, Ukraine will be able to supply up to 20,000 tons of apples to India annually if its production continues to grow.

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EastFruit has previously reported on the ban on the export of onion, recently introduced by the Government of India in measures to combat the rapid rise in prices for these products and the opportunities opening up for Ukraine suppliers in the traditional Indian exporters’ markets.

ProduceReport notes that the first, who will take advantage, are the suppliers of onions from China, which annually produces over 20 million tons of these products. For example, journalists cite a similar situation last year, because India is not the first time to introduce such restrictions on exports.

Thus, last season, a similar ban was in effect from September 2019 to mid-March 2020. As a result, many countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East that rely on onion imports quickly reoriented themselves to China’s suppliers.

During this period, the export volumes of onions from the Chinese province of Gansu (the largest producing region in the PRC) increased 13 times! Nepal is another example. According to the Nepalese customs, in November-December 2019, the country imported 823 tons of onions from China, although such supplies were not registered a year earlier.

In the current season, onion production in India has significantly decreased due to heavy rains, and prices have rapidly increased. To level the price situation on the market on September 14, the Indian government banned the export of all onions, except onion slices and powder. As a result, such actions immediately led to an increase in prices in India’s neighboring countries.

Onions are one of South Asia’s key products, and countries such as Bangladesh or Nepal depend on India’s supplies. According to reports from Bangladesh media outlets, the ban has caused panic in a country where 95% of onion imports are imported from India. Immediately after the ban on the border with India, about 1,000 trucks with 25,000 tons of loaded products were stopped.

To cope with the situation, Bangladesh’s government has temporarily canceled the import duty on onions on September 20, until March 2021. Now local onions in Bangladesh are sold at $ 0.94-1.19 / kg, while imported products are offered at $ 0.76-0.90 / kg. However, these are not the record prices that the Indian export ban has driven. For example, last year in Bangladesh, buyers had to pay up to $ 3.54 per kg of onions.

According to local experts, in 2020, Bangladesh will need to import about 600 thousand tons of onions to fully meet the local market demand. China, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Egypt may become alternative suppliers. In connection with the crisis in a neighboring country’s market, India even slightly relaxed the export ban, allowing trucks with previously contracted volumes to cross the border.

Now the Indian government is also considering the possibility of resuming full-fledged supplies not only to Bangladesh but also to Nepal and Bhutan, fearing that the vacated market share could be taken by China and other suppliers such as Pakistan and Turkey.

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The United States can begin a new apple season, having in storage large volumes of 2019 apple harvest. About this, in particular, writes the Journal of Business with reference to Todd Freiver, a president of the Washington Apple Commission (WAC). It is one of the most influential apple organizations in the world, which recently announced a significant increase in the budget for promoting apple exports.

In a typical year, about a third of Washington state apples are sold overseas, Todd says. According to Freiver, at the end of the current season, which ends with the beginning of September, the proportion of exported apples may not exceed 26%. At the same time, according to EastFruit, up to 70% of the US apple is grown in Washington state.

“I try to be optimistic,” says Freiver, who works at the office of the Apple Commission in Wenatchee, Washington. “But with COVID-19 we are trying to understand what retail will look like in the US and abroad. Export demand for apples is now unstable.”

Mexico and India are currently the main importers of apples from Washington State. However, quarantine in these countries, especially in India, prevented consumers from reaching markets and supermarkets, so apple consumption has plummeted, says Freiver. India currently ranks third in the world in the number of detected cases of COVID-19, second only to the United States and Brazil, while Mexico is ninth. Moreover, both countries are now among the five countries in the world with the fastest spread of the virus.

EastFruit analysts note that apple exports from the United States to India in April 2020 collapsed immediately by 45% compared to the same month of 2019, and in May 2020, the export was 27% lower than in May of the previous year. Deliveries to Mexico in May decreased by 17% compared to the same month of 2019, but apple exports to the Middle East increased several times: to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.

Washington’s apple business is heavily dependent on India’s consumption of Red Delicious Red apples, Todd said. He also adds: “So far this season, we have not reached sales targets for any of the varieties.” Accordingly, if export fails to intensify, the next step for the organization will be an attempt to sell the apple on the domestic market.

“As a result, we may encounter a situation where more pressure will be put on the apple’s domestic prices … prices will fall, and then apple growers will be hit hard,” he says. “I doubt that the situation will improve much in the near future,” adds Freiver.

According to EastFruit, apple exports from the United States for the first eight months of the 2019/20 season, in fact, increased quite significantly – by 19%. At the same time, the main importers were Mexico, Canada, and Taiwan, each of which significantly increased the total volume of imports of American apples. However, exports to India decreased by 27% over this period. Deliveries to Hong Kong and Indonesia decreased less significantly, but apple shipments from the USA to Vietnam, the Dominican Republic, and Thailand increased even more significantly. Exports of American apples to Saudi Arabia and the UAE more than doubled over the entire season, partially attracting suppliers from Italy, France, Poland, and Ukraine to these markets, where apple prices were high.

Therefore, obviously, we are talking only about the problems that arose in May-June, when the COVID-19 began to spread rapidly in India and Mexico. Therefore, the United States fears that the plan for the export of apple may be frustrated. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that stocks can still be sold, primarily by increasing shipments to the countries of the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

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