The almond harvest season has ended in Uzbekistan. It starts at the end of July with early varieties and ends at the end of September with late varieties, lasting about two months. Despite the low almond harvest this year, the downward trend in prices that started in the third decade of August during the harvest of mid-season varieties continued this week. As of October 7, 2021, the average wholesale prices for almonds are 40% lower compared to those recorded 1,5 months ago.

Given the virtual absence of almond imports in 2021, the reason for an unusual combination of a low harvest and declining prices for almonds in Uzbekistan is quite simple, EastFruit analysts say. Almond harvest expectations were the worst and real volume was better than expected.

Early varieties of almonds bloom in Uzbekistan even before the calendar spring starts. However, abnormal warming in the winter months of 2021 led to early blooming of almond trees. In the southern regions of Uzbekistan, almonds bloomed in mid-February, and a little later blooming started in the central part of the country. The two waves of frost that followed this warming, in late February and mid-March, caused great damage to this year’s harvest of almonds and other nuts and stone fruits. Potential loss of almond yield was estimated from 30% to 90% depending on the region.

Read also: Almonds harvesting in Georgia’s largest orchard (video)

The expectations of the almond market participants for this year’s harvest were the worst and the prices began to rise in the beginning of April. From March 25 to June 17, the average wholesale prices for inshell almonds increased twice from 50,000 UZS/kg ($4.8) to 100,000 UZS/kg ($9.4). Over the next two months – until the 20th of August, prices remained at the same level. Prices began to decline only in the third decade of August and this trend continues. From 19 August to 7 October 2021, the average wholesale prices for inshell almonds fell from 100,000 UZS/kg ($9.4) to 60,000 UZS/kg ($5.6), i.e. by 40%.

Such sharp fluctuations in prices are explained by the greatest damage caused by weather anomalies to the harvest of early almond varieties, as expected, a lesser damage to mid-ripening varieties and even less – to late varieties. Harvesting of early varieties in Uzbekistan begins in late July – early August, but their prices were record high until the 20th of August. Prices began to decline in the third decade of August, when the harvest of mid-ripening almond varieties started. When the harvest of mid-ripening varieties was ending and transition to late-ripening varieties started, the downward price trend continued. In other words, the worst expectations for the almond yield came true for the early varieties, while the mid-ripening and late varieties turned out to be better than expected.

It is noteworthy that the current average wholesale prices for almonds are at the same level as recorded on the same date last year, but 50% higher than on the same date in 2019. This is due to the almond harvest being significantly lower in 2020 than in 2019. In other words, the almond harvest in the country has been lower than usual for the second year.

As for the further dynamics of almond prices, market participants say that a further significant decrease can hardly be expected.

Сообщение Almonds prices in Uzbekistan fell by 40% in one and a half months появились сначала на EastFruit.

For several years EastFruit has been talking about the prospects for exporting early apples from Uzbekistan. However, as we forecasted, this trend was interrupted in 2021. According to the State Customs Committee of Uzbekistan, the exports of Uzbek apples in May-August 2021 decreased almost three times in volumes compared to the same period in 2020, amounting to only 6.3 thousand tons. This is the lowest export of early apples in the last four years!

However, the reasons for such a sharp decline in early apple exports from Uzbekistan are not limited to unfavorable weather this year. In fact, there are much more of them and it is important that market participants understand them.

We reported earlier about the weather conditions that led to the partial loss of early apple harvest. Based on this, we forecasted a decline in exports. However, it was not the only reason.

Unexpectedly for many market participants, apple prices in Russia, the largest apple importer in the region, not only did not increase in May, as is usually the case, but began to decline! By July 2021, there were still a lot of apples from the 2020 harvest on the Russian market, and prices for many varieties fell to their lowest level in a year – less than $0.8 per kg!

Naturally, the prices for early apples were very low due to the oversupply of standard varieties. As a result, the average wholesale price for early apples in Russia in the second half of July was two times lower in 2021 than in 2020 and set a negative record.

To show how this affected the supply of early apples from Uzbekistan to Russia, we note that wholesale buyers were ready to pay for Russian early apples about the same as the cost of delivering Uzbek apples to the largest cities of Russia – about $0.4. Thus, exports were out of the question. This was observed throughout Eastern Europe. Therefore, small volumes could have been exported from Uzbekistan only to neighboring countries.

Another important factor should also be noted, which Uzbek suppliers might not have noticed this year due to reduced exports – the increasing requirements for apple quality. Requirements for packaging, sorting and other parameters of apples purchased by supermarkets and wholesalers in Russia increased significantly in 2021. The main reason is the growing competition among suppliers, which allowed to choose the best. Therefore, even if Uzbekistan had a good, or even a record large harvest of early apples, export them would be almost impossible this year.

Uzbek growers, who managed to preserve at least part of their early apple harvest, do not experience the lack of demand. In the midst of the normal export season, i.e. June 2021, the average wholesale prices for apples in the capital markets of Uzbekistan were 13,000 – 14,000 UZS/kg ($1.23 – 1.33), which is 2.5 times higher than at the same time in 2019 and 2020. Even the minimum price in mid-July, 9000 UZS/kg ($0.84), was 80% higher than on the same date in 2019-2020. Obviously, the local market turned out to be quite capacious, and the decline in production was significant enough to ensure the rise in prices without regard to the developments in the main sales market.

The main question Uzbek growers have now is whether the scenario of 2021 will repeat in 2022? What if Uzbekistan gets a normal early apple harvest, and prices on the Russian market will again be low, not even covering delivery costs, like this year? After all, EastFruit has already drawn the world’s attention to the threat of apple overproduction in 2021 and record low prices by launching the hashtag #freshapplecrisis.

The situation looks rather difficult. Therefore, Uzbek exporters should now be thinking of increasing the quality parameters of early apples and finding sales markets alternative to Russia. In the event of a possible overproduction, high-quality apples can be sold on the fresh market, albeit not at the highest price, and low-quality ones can only be sold for processing at a minimum price.

Сообщение Why has Uzbekistan reduced early apple exports three-fold in 2021? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Prices for melons have increased significantly this week in Ukraine, according to analysts of the EastFruit project. The main factors behind the growth in prices in this segment were the seasonal reduction in the supply and rather active demand from consumers.

Melons in Ukrainian farms have risen in price by an average of 33% compared to last week, primarily due to the seasonal reduction in the supply, as growers say. To date, many growers in the southern region have almost completed the harvesting of early melon varieties. Harvesting of later varieties is planned to start only in the end of this month. In addition, at this stage, many producers faced problems with the quality of melons due to unfavorable weather.

Today growers ship melons from the field in bulk at 4-8 UAH/kg ($ 0.015-0.30/kg).

It should be noted that melons in Ukrainian farms are now on average 23% more expensive than in the same period last year. According to industry experts, such a price difference is primarily associated with a reduction in melon production in the country due to unfavorable weather.

Сообщение Melons have significantly risen in price in Ukraine over a week появились сначала на EastFruit.

45.5 thousand tons of table grapes were produced in Uzbekistan in the first half of 2021, which is 5.1% more than in the same period last year. The data were published by the State Statistical Committee of the republic following the results of the first half of 2021. According to EastFruit analysts, the growth in grape production in the first half of the year from 2019 to 2021 was 23%.

Taking into account that there are only a few cases of greenhouse production of table grapes in Uzbekistan, according to EastFruit experts, the data on the grape production in Uzbekistan in January-June refer to early grape varieties grown in open field.

It is not surprising that the leaders in the grape production in January-June are the southern regions of the republic. According to 2021 data, the total share of the southernmost regions – Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya accounts for almost half of the produced volume of early table grape varieties – 44%, followed by Namangan, Bukhara and Samarkand regions:

Surkhandarya region: 30.1%

Kashkadarya region: 13.9%

Namangan region: 11.8%

Bukhara region: 11.4%

Samarkand region: 9.9%

The total share of the above five regions accounts for 77% of the total production of early table grape varieties in Uzbekistan. The total share of the remaining 8 regions of the republic is 23%, respectively.

According to the data at the beginning of July 2021, table grapes are grown on an area of 90 thousand hectares in Uzbekistan. 900 thousand workers are employed on a permanent and seasonal basis on it. Over the past four years, 52,000 hectares of new vineyards were planted and 210 billion sums were allocated to this sector in the form of subsidies – $ 19.7 million at the current exchange rate. The share of table grapes in the export of fruit and vegetable products doubled during this period.

We remind you that the head of state Shavkat Mirziyoyev held a video conference on the development of viticulture and industrial processing of table grapes, as well as measures to organize wine tourism in the regions on July 7, 2021. At the meeting the task was set to create new export-oriented plantations in 44 districts of the republic based on the experience of past years. Additional subsidies and compensations from the budget, incentives for the import of equipment and technology used in viticulture, tax incentives and resources for banks to finance the establishment of vineyards in the amount of $ 100 mln. should be allocated. New high-yielding, seedless, cold-resistant and disease-resistant grape varieties should be created based on foreign experience.

Сообщение Production of early table grape varieties in Uzbekistan increased by 23% in two years появились сначала на EastFruit.

Representatives of horticultural enterprises from almost all regions of Moldova note that they observe the biological cycle in many plum orchards this year. In those orchards that gave a relatively high harvest in 2020, this year it will be significantly lower (and vice versa). In addition, many plum plantations are affected by severe stress following the drought of the previous two years.

It is worth recalling that according to expert estimates, only about 65 thousand tons of plums were harvested from 22.7 thousand hectares of plum orchards in the country. In 2019, 109 thousand tons were harvested, in 2018 – 133 thousand tons.

According to the observations of the Federation of Agricultural Producers of Moldova FARM expert Andrei Zbanka, the potential decrease in yields in plum orchards will be compensated to some extent by the rather high quality of the fruits – they are quite large due to precipitation in the first half of summer. The phytosanitary conditions on plum plantations are also acceptable.

By the end of this week, agricultural enterprises in the southern and central zones of the country will start harvesting early varieties of plums (“Chachakskaya early”, etc.). The first Moldovan plums will mostly go to the domestic market. According to farmers, a comfortable wholesale price for them at the start of the season will be in the range of 12-20 MDL/kg ($ 0.66-1.11/kg) with containers and VAT, which is about one and a half times higher than the starting price last year. High expectations for demand prices are partly associated with poor forecasts for the plum harvest this year in a number of EU countries.

Сообщение The 2021 plum season in Moldova: lower harvest, but high quality появились сначала на EastFruit.

Blackberry season starts in Georgia in a few weeks, but early varieties are already available on the market. At this moment demand is high and supply lags behind, so the prices are high for now but in the peak season in July, supply will increase rapidly, and prices will fall. Last season was not easy for Georgian blackberry producers, what should they expect this year? We have discussed current year’s perspectives with the producers.

Only a few producers in Georgia are using the opportunity to sell early blackberries at a higher price and Izolda Kitesashvili is among them. She started the blackberry harvest in May as she produces blackberry in the greenhouse and has early varieties in the open field too. In May she was selling blackberry at the highest price 20 GEL/kg ($5.92), from June prices came down to 15 GEL/kg ($4.9), now, after her orchard in Kakheti suffered from hail and quality deteriorated, the new price is 5 GEL/kg ($1.58). Only a small part of her total production comes from early varieties, the main harvest season in her orchards starts in July.  In total Kitesashvili owns a 2.5 ha blackberry orchard in the Kakheti region.

Other farmers admit that early varieties are attractive in terms of profitability, however, there are two main varieties of blackberries grown in Georgian orchards – Triple Crown and Chester. Harvesting period for both starts in July as they are not among early varieties. As an answer to the question of why farmers did not plant early varieties, they pointed out a lack of information and professional advice on blackberry seedlings suitable for the Georgian climate.

Before the peak season farmers are concerned on finding trade partners in advance, as last year, when harvesting reached the peak, the market was oversupplied, and prices collapsed.

This season farmers will join forces together with the Georgian Berry Growers’ association which currently unites 80 farmers from all berry-producing regions of Georgia. The association is actively involved in negotiations with local fruit processing companies and exporters to help its members sell their berries.

Blackberry producer and one of the founders of the association Eliso Gviniashvili thinks that this year, thanks to the association’s activities, more blackberries will be both sold locally and at export markets – mainly in Russia and the Gulf countries. Association members already had the export experience in Russia and are better informed about required quality and packaging, as well as logistics issues. For the current season the association planned blackberry collection and supply chain in advance. According to Gviniashvili the association has conducted a survey to estimate the current state of Georgia’s berry production. The survey showed that 30 out of 150 raspberry and blackberry producers have already left the market or are not taking care of their orchards anymore. Despite the fact that part of the producers have already left the market Gviniashvili expects that blackberry supply this season will increase. According to her estimates only in Kakheti, there will be at least 170 tons of blackberry this year that is approximately a 70% increase for this region compared to the past season. Factors favoring the increase in production are new orchards and increased yields per hectare due to existing orchards entering the full production stage.

According to EastFruit price monitoring data on 2020 season blackberry prices started at 15 GEL/kg ($4.93) in June and fell to 2 GEL/kg ($0.65) in August.

Сообщение Will exports save Georgian blackberry season this year? появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit experts visited several districts of the Fergana region of Uzbekistan and noted a trend in the change in the ratio of stone fruit trees at local farms. There has been a reduction over the past 5-7 years in the area of ​​apricot orchards (mainly local varieties) in favor of peach plantations in regions specialized  and climatically adapted for these crops. The new orchards consisted mainly of trendy apricot varieties (Shalakh, Hungarian and others) for the fresh market, which are sold at a much higher price than traditional local varieties. At the same time, cherries are still in trend and there is a tendency to expand the areas of cherry orchards.

In order to stretch the harvest season and reduce the risk of price fluctuations for a particular product from year to year, local farmers often combine the production of cherries with peaches and apricots, dividing a farm into two (cherries and peaches) or into three parts (cherries, peaches and apricots). At the same time, the approximate ratio of these areas is often the following: if there are three crops, then a fourth or fifth part of the farm is planted with apricot, the rest is divided equally between cherries and peaches. If there are only cherries and peaches, the ratio is 50/50 or 60/40.

What is the reason for the reduction of the area planted with apricots?

How does diversification and combination of these stone fruits reduce the risks of price fluctuations? To get answers to these questions, EastFruit experts spoke with several farmers.

As it turned out, the main reason for the reduction of apricot orchards of local traditional varieties and their replacement by peach plantations is that the production of outdated apricot varieties has become unprofitable. Due to the low price, the proceeds from its sale do not cover the costs of its production. By the way, the downward trend in world prices for both fresh and dried apricots is global, as we wrote it in the article “Global prices for fresh and dried apricots consistently decreasing, quality requirements increasing”.

However, the unprofitable production of local traditional apricot varieties is characteristic of the Fergana Valley. Since this region is located in the northern part of Uzbekistan, the start of apricot harvesting here falls at the peak of the harvest in the southern part of the country (for example, in the Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya regions). Therefore, there are enough production volumes in the country’s markets, and the prices for apricots are already low during this period.

It turns out that growing here apricot of the same varieties as in the south of the country is unprofitable, given the shift in the harvest season due to the climatic zone and the relatively small distances between the south, central part and north of Uzbekistan which makes the transport component in the cost of apricots brought from other regions of the republic small.

What are the options for preserving the areas planted with apricots?

The regions of the Fergana Valley in neighboring Tajikistan specialize in the cultivation of apricots for the production of dried apricots. A video about how fresh and dried apricots are grown, harvested, dried and sold in Tajikistan is available here.

If we talk about traditional Uzbek varieties of apricots for the fresh market, even for the southern regions and the central part of the country, it is the early varieties that are most profitable, both for the domestic market and for export.

The situation on the apricot market this year in Uzbekistan is rather an exception due to weather anomalies. In 2020, the wholesale prices for apricot were high only for two weeks – from the beginning of May ($4 per kg) to mid-May ($2 per kg), then by the 20th of May they decreased to $0.60 – at the time when the apricot harvest begins in the Fergana Valley. Having stayed at this level until the first days of June, average wholesale prices for apricots dropped to $0.30 per kg by the middle of the month.

By the way, farmers in the Fergana Valley may have another unused niche in the apricot business. “In Italy, you can buy locally produced fresh apricots 8-9 months a year, so farmers’ efforts are focused on extending the season not only by early varieties, including those grown under cover, but also by late varieties of apricots, which are grown in cooler regions and the hills. The sales season for apricots in Uzbekistan is very short, and prices for the last batch of apricots often rise to the same level as for the earliest varieties. Therefore, this can definitely be an additional opportunity for farmers of the Fergana Valley – focusing on late varieties and delaying their fruiting as much as possible with technological methods that are now quite accessible and known until the southern regions leave the market completely,” says Andriy Yarmak, Economist, Investments Centre, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Why are farmers in the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan “switching” from apricot to peach?

First, the prices for peaches in the domestic market are on average twice as high as for apricots, as evidenced by data from the wholesale markets over the past few years.

Secondly, the assortment of local peach varieties by the ripening period allows you to stretch the harvesting and marketing season – from mid-June to October inclusive. In other words, if there are early, middle and late varieties of peach on a farm, you don’t need to put harvested fruits in refrigerators and you can continuously supply them to the market for almost four months and get revenue. This means you can more efficiently use labor, machinery and equipment, which is very important for such a seasonal business as farming.

Thirdly, if we are talking about laying new extensive orchards, in terms of the payback period, peach trees begin to bear fruit after 3 years, and apricot (local varieties) only after 7 years. Therefore, peach farm begins to pay off much earlier.

What does the combination of peaches and cherries give to a farm?

Such a combination, namely the division of the total area of ​​the farm into two parts – cherry and peach plantations, allows the farmer to supply his products to the fresh market almost continuously for 4-5 months (from the beginning of May to the end of August or September, depending on selection of varieties of cherries and peaches by the ripening period), without storing the products in refrigerators. This is extremely important in terms of efficiency in the use of horticultural, cooling and packaging equipment and for seasonal workers.

Taking into account local climatic conditions the harvesting scheme is as follows: the collection of early varieties of cherries begins and continues with later varieties in the first ten days of May. When the cherry season ends, the harvest of early peach varieties begins in 5-10 days, in mid-June, and continues with harvesting medium and late varieties until September-October.

How to reduce the risks of price fluctuations and weather anomalies?

According to farmers of the Uzbekistan district of Fergana region, one of the main reasons for the combination of cherries, peaches and apricots (dividing the total area of ​​a farm into three parts), along with the possibility of extending the sales season on fresh markets, is an attempt to reduce the risks of price fluctuations for these products and of crop failure.

For example, low prices for cherries can be offset by good prices for peaches and apricots, or vice versa. Likewise, a poor harvest on one of these crops is offset by a good or acceptable harvest for other crops from this set, as happened with apricots in 2021. In other words, diversification of the horticultural business is very appropriate in this case.

Of course, farmers in Uzbekistan should pay attention to frost protection technologies, such as above-crown sprinklers when the temperature drops to zero degrees, or machines for mixing air. Also, a promising direction is the cultivation of fruits under cover which allows not only to protect the fruit harvest from bad weather and birds but also to significantly improve the quality, reducing the use of plant protection products. We wrote about this in the article “Superintensive farm of large cherries from A to Z“.

Reduction of apricot plantations is a substitute for varieties

The observed significant reductions in apricot orchards, or the apricot part of horticultural plantations, mainly concern local traditional varieties that are sold in the domestic and foreign markets at the lowest price category. In most cases, peach plantations have been created in their place.

At the same time, there are cases of laying new apricot orchards or using more trendy varieties, such as “Shalakh”, “Hungarian”, etc. for the apricot part of farm plantations. In other words, there was not only a “switch” from apricot to peach, but also a “switch” from traditional apricot varieties to more expensive varieties of the fresh market.

The peculiarities of agribusiness in Central Asian countries, global technological trends in the fruit and vegetable business, current trends in the world and regional fruit and vegetable trade, as well as methods of finding business contacts for producers from Central Asia in the context of the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic will be discussed at the online conference “Fruits, Nuts and Vegetables of Central Asia”, which will take place on June 8, 2021. The conference program is available here.

The online conference will be held on Zoom. Participation in the conference is free of charge, but subject to mandatory registration. Link for the registration is available here. We are happy to invite producers and exporters of Central Asia to register for the online conference.

The event starts at 14:00 (Tashkent, Dushanbe, Ashgabat), 15:00 (Nur-Sultan, Bishkek).

Сообщение Uzbekistan, second largest global apricot exporter is reducing it in favour of peaches появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit project analysts report that gardeners in the southern region of Ukraine have begun harvesting an early apple. According to the producers, the early apple season this year began a week later due to adverse weather conditions in the spring.

Ukrainian farms set prices for the first batches of early apples at 15-24 UAH / kg ($ 0.56-0.89 / kg), which is on average almost 2 times more expensive than at the beginning of last season. The activity of wholesale buyers is still rather low since local gardeners offer small volumes of early apples, and larger batches of these fruits will appear on the market in the next 2 weeks.

At the same time, the demand for early apple varieties is currently assessed as restrained, despite the fact that in the current season the gross collection of fruit data is significantly lower than last year. Ukrainian gardeners hope that the pace of apple sales will accelerate and prices will begin to rise with the entry of later varieties of apples into the market.

Сообщение Gardeners in Ukraine began to harvest early apples появились сначала на EastFruit.