The volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan in March 2022 amounted to 15 400 tonnes, which is almost three times higher than in the same period in 2021, EastFruit analysts report, citing official data on imports of main food products.

In total, Uzbekistan imported 40 100 tonnes of bananas from the beginning of January to the end of March 2022, which is 2.5 times more than in January-March 2021 and almost 4 times more than in January-March 2020.

The sharp increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan last year was noted by EastFruit experts as one of the TOP-10 fruit and vegetable events of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the upward trend in the consumption of bananas even accelerated. The growth rate of banana consumption in January-March 2022 compared to the same months in 2021 was higher than that in 2021 as a whole. For comparison: in total, Uzbekistan imported 89 400 tonnes of bananas in 2021, which is 2.4 times more than in 2020.

One of the factors in the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan was the removal of customs duties on banana imports. In October 2021, the country’s government decided to stimulate the imports of a number of fruits by exempting their import from import duties. Bananas were included in the list. The government’s decision to remove the duties served as an additional incentive for the growth of consumption of bananas in Uzbekistan in the last months of 2021 and January-March 2022, since import statistics showed a solid increase in the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan even before October 2021.

Сообщение Uzbekistan almost tripled banana imports in March 2022 появились сначала на EastFruit.

Experts from the Federation of Agricultural Producers of Moldova FARM believe that Moldovan exporters may receive additional incentives to increase the supply of apricots to the European market in 2022. Moreover, in this case, both positive and negative incentives will be used.

As a positive incentive, one can consider the fact that more and more young apricot orchards of varieties popular in the EU (Kioto, Faralia, Wonder Cot, Magic Cot, Big Red, etc.) enter the period of full fruiting in Moldova. In addition, partial preferences apply to the export of Moldovan apricots to the EU: their supplies are subject to a special fixed duty, but the ad valorem component of the customs duty (20%) is not charged. This creates competitive advantages for Moldovan apricots on the European market, compared to similar products from other countries, in particular, Central Asian. Moreover, given the high probability of further rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine, experts from farmers’ organizations hope that the EU will agree to provide Moldova with additional duty-free quotas for the export of stone fruit, in particular apricots and, possibly, peaches (fig varieties).

Read also: In which markets can Moldovan berries be sold in 2022?

A negative incentive for expanding the supply of Moldovan apricots is that by July (the month with the largest share of sales of apricots) local traders will have to find an alternative to the Russian and Ukrainian markets. In the previous two or three years, Russia and Ukraine accounted for more than half of all apricot exports from Moldova.

In 2021, Moldovan agricultural producers and traders exported about 5 500 tonnes of apricots worth more than $3 million. The largest volume was sent to Ukraine – 2 100 tonnes, Russia – 1 600 tonnes, Belarus – 725 tonnes, Romania – 397 tonnes, Germany – 167 tonnes, Hungary – 95 tonnes. In total, apricots from Moldova were supplied to 16 countries. The average invoice price for apricots exported to the European Union is $1.23/kg (to Germany – $2.01/kg), to the CIS and post-soviet states – $0.44/kg.

Сообщение Moldova has a chance to increase the exports of apricots to the EU – opinion появились сначала на EastFruit.

The sharp increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan last year was noted by EastFruit experts as one of the Top-10 fruit and vegetable events of 2021. The upward trend in banana consumption continued in the first two months of 2022, and the growth rate was not lower than in the same period in 2021.

According to EastFruit analysts, Uzbekistan imported 24 700 tonnes of bananas in January-February 2022, which is 2.4 times more than in the same period in 2021. For comparison: in total in 2021, Uzbekistan imported 89 400 tonnes of bananas, which is also 2.4 times more than in 2020.

Moreover, the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan in January-February has been growing for at least the third year in a row.

Noteworthy, banana imports in two months of 2022 in physical terms exceeded total imports in 2018 (23 600 tonnes) by almost 5% and exceed total volume in 2017 by 40% (17 500 tonnes).

One of the factors in the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan was the zeroing of customs duties on banana imports. In October 2021, the country’s government decided to stimulate the import of a number of fruits by exempting their import from paying import duties. Banana was also included in the list of such fruits. As a result, banana prices in the last months of 2021 were much lower than last year. This ratio remained in the first two months of 2022.

In January-February 2022, the average wholesale banana prices were on average 20% lower than in the same period in 2021. As of March 4, 2022, the average wholesale price in Uzbekistan was 15 000 UZS/kg ($1.38), which is 23% lower than on the same date in 2021.

The government’s decision to zero import customs duties served as an additional incentive for the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan in the last months of 2021 and January-February 2022, since import statistics showed a solid increase in the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan even before October 2021. In January-October 2021, Uzbekistan imported 60% more bananas than in total in 2020 and 37% more than in total in 2019. EastFruit analysts identified three reasons for the considerable increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan in 2021.

Сообщение Uzbekistan: banana consumption kept growing in January-February 2022 появились сначала на EastFruit.

On October 21, 2021, EastFruit wrote about the decision of the government of Uzbekistan to exempt the import of a range of fruits, including bananas, kiwis, citrus fruits, fresh apples, pears, quince and other fresh and dried fruits from customs duties. Prior to this, a customs duty rate of 10-20% was applied when importing these fruits, but not less than $0.2/kg.

One month has passed since the decision was announced by the government of the republic, and analysts are noting how it has de facto affected the wholesale prices over this time. Several fruits and vegetables from the list with a zero import duty are included in the EastFruit weekly wholesale price monitoring. These are bananas, oranges, mandarins, apples and pears. How have their wholesale prices changed?

Oranges

As you see from the chart, average wholesale prices for orange began to fall from November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks, from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 30,000 UZS/kg ($2.81) to 20,000 UZS/kg ($1.86) i.e. by 50%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan are 31% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 9% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges repeat the same downward trend that was observed in November-December 2019-2020, then we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Mandarins

In contrast to oranges, the average wholesale prices for mandarins began to decline on the 20th of October. The average wholesale prices fell from 38,000 UZS/kg ($3.55) – the maximum price in the second half of 2021 recorded in mid-October, to 13,000 UZS/kg ($1.21) on 19 November 2021, i.e. almost 3 times. Obviously, the zeroing of customs duties was not the only reason for such a rapid fall in prices for mandarins, but it was one of its factors.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for mandarins are 2.5 times lower than on the same date in 2020, and 32% lower than on the same date in 2019.

Provided that wholesale prices for mandarins will repeat the same downward trend observed in November-December 2019-2020, we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Bananas

As in the case of oranges, the average wholesale prices for bananas began to fall on November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks – from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 19,000 UZS/kg ($1.78) to 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.49), i.e. by 16%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for bananas in Uzbekistan are 20% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 11% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges will repeat the same downward trend as in November-December 2019-2020, wholesale prices for bananas may be even lower by the end of 2021.

It is worth noting that current wholesale banana prices are in line with the lows recorded in January 2021.

As for apples and pears, so far no large reductions in wholesale prices have been noted.

Сообщение How did the exemption from import duties in Uzbekistan affect the prices for citrus fruits and bananas? появились сначала на EastFruit.

The season of duties exemption for several groups of food products, including fresh fruit supplied from Moldova to the Russian market, expired on March 31, 2021. As a result, according to preliminary estimates of Moldovan traders, they will have to subtract from the current prices for exported apples, depending on their variety and quality, approximately 0.60-0.80 MDL/kg ($ 0.03-0.04/kg).

Read also: Fruit imports to Russia in January 2021 were marked by a drop in supplies of bananas and apples

For Moldovan trade enterprises, which bought apples at relatively high prices on the local market last autumn for export to the Russian market in spring 2021, this is a rather serious issue. Many exporting traders were already working on the brink of zero profitability in winter this year: the prices for apples in Russia were significantly lower than expected, and the supply volumes, as EastFruit reported, were significantly lower than in the same months of previous years.

Producers of apples, especially those of high quality, found themselves in an equally difficult situation. In the absence of customs privileges, the advantages of Moldovan goods are decreasing in the highly competitive Russian apple market, and due to the limited purchasing power, the potential for price growth even for high-quality fruit is apparently exhausted.

According to the estimates of the associations of agricultural producers and traders, by the beginning of April, about 50-60 thousand tons of apples of the 2020 harvest remain in refrigerated warehouses. However, considering their “residual quality”, only half of these apples can be sold on the “fresh market” at best.

Сообщение New problems in sight for the Moldovan apples on the Russian market появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts studied Russia’s recently approved roadmap for the development of fruit and berry production until 2023, which includes creating favourable conditions for the domestic production of fruits and berries in the country.

One point of the road map is of particular interest. “As one of the support measures, the exclusion of apples, pears, quince, and plums (HS code 0808) from the list of goods originating from developing countries or from the least developed countries, in respect of which preferential tariffs for imports into the customs territory of the Eurasian Economic Union are applied. It is planned that this issue should be worked out by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation together with industry associations by the end of the second quarter of 2021.” We should note that plums are not included in code 0808, but perhaps this is just a technical error in the document.

Read also: Russia is increasing fruit and vegetable imports thanks to the expansion of vegetables and fruits from Iran

This means that a number of countries in 2021 may face the need to pay higher customs duties when supplying apples, pears, and possibly plums to Russia. Which countries might be affected by these changes if adopted?

Serbia, which is technically the largest apple and pear supplier falling under the category of developing countries, could be significantly affected. However, Serbia has a separate free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Therefore, Serbia is most likely out of danger here – at least until 2024 when the country could join the European Union.

Moldova also has a separate agreement with Russia within the CIS; however, recent political changes in this country may lead to the cancellation of trade preferences for exports of Moldovan fruits to Russia at any time. Unlike Serbia, apple exports from Moldova are poorly diversified so the cancellation of preferences could hurt the country’s horticultural business substantially.

Higher duties may also apply to suppliers of apples and pears from the southern hemisphere, which are classified as developing countries in Russia. These countries are primarily Argentina, South Africa, and Chile. These three supply about 200,000 tons of apples and pears per year to Russia, which is more than supplied by Serbia. Thus, they could also feel the impact.

Potential increase in import duties could also hurt apple, pear, and plum suppliers from Turkey, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which also supply significant volumes of these products to Russia.

Сообщение Russia may increase import duties for apples, pears, plums, and quinces появились сначала на EastFruit.