The Commission for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Moldova until the end of the state of emergency, that is, the end of April, banned merchants from demanding producers and wholesale suppliers of socially significant goods, including vegetables of the “borscht set” to charge discounts, retrobonuses, tariffs for putting on shelves, promotions, return or disposal etc. Local producers have been seeking this measure of support for a long time. Last year it was formalized as one of the amendments to the Internal Trade Law. However, the amendment was not included in the final version of the document (subsequently adopted by the Parliament).

EastFruit previously reported that the emergency commission introduced maximum allowable trade margins on a number of food products, including fresh potatoes, onions, white cabbage, carrots and beetroots. The mark-up cannot exceed that established for socially significant food commodities (for their various categories – 10-20%). Participants of the country’s food market note that it is much easier to track the retail margin for local products than for imported ones, some of which are supplied to supermarkets through several intermediaries.

In addition, associations of commodity producers are concerned that by decision of the Emergency Commission, food commodities produced and supplied from the European Union are exempted from inspection by the National Agency for Food Safety ANSA during the state of emergency. Whereas local producers-suppliers of these products to retail chains are required to obtain sanitary certificates for each batch.

Сообщение Retailers banned from demanding discounts from suppliers of socially important food products in Moldova появились сначала на EastFruit.

At a meeting on Friday, February 25, 2022, the Commission for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Moldova decided to limit the trade markup in Moldovan retail for vegetables of the “borscht set” – onions, beetroot, white cabbage, as well as potatoes and some other food products. This measure is aimed at curbing “unreasonable price increases”.

Indeed, since yesterday, under the influence of the negative flow of news in connection with the armed aggression of Russia and the fighting in neighboring Ukraine, long queues have been lining up in Chisinau supermarket chains. Due to the boom in demand for some products of daily consumption and the long shelf life, employees of individual chains often change price tags or remove them from the shelves altogether.

The decision in connection with the “crisis of retail prices” has not yet been published. Therefore, it is still unclear in what particular allowable range the trade markup will be fixed. Operators of the fruit and vegetable market assume that it will be 8-10%. That is, at the level of the trade allowance that applies to the previously established narrow list of socially significant goods. It is also unclear whether this restrictive measure will last all 60 days of the state of emergency, or a shorter period.

Some representatives of farmers’ organizations consider this measure ambiguous. Prices for bulk vegetables of the “borscht set” in Moldovan supermarkets, especially those positioned as discounters, have been slightly lower for the third year already than for goods of relatively good quality sold in most markets-bazaars in Chisinau. If the chain retailers observe the administrative limitation of the trade markup, then this fact, on the one hand, will put pressure on market prices. On the other hand, it will help attract consumers to supermarkets, just like at the “acute” moment of the pandemic, when city markets were closed.

However, limiting the trade markup too tightly can also have a negative side effect – a reduction in the assortment and a decrease in the quality of goods on the shelves.

Сообщение Retail prices for vegetables from the “borscht set” are being regulated in Moldova появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit experts note the growing interest of Ukrainian consumers in understanding why borsch vegetables are so expensive.

Indeed, it is difficult for many to understand why the retail price for cabbage now ranges from 21 to 25 UAH/kg, while last year at the same time, it was sold at an average of 4-5 UAH/kg. And how can cabbage cost more than apples?

By the way, cabbage, carrots, onions and table beets were sold at approximately the same retail price a year ago – within 4-5 UAH/kg. However, all four of these important vegetables are now many times more expensive. Table beets are now sold in supermarkets in Kyiv at 16-18 UAH/kg, onions – at 13-16 UAH/kg, and carrots – at 15-20 UAH/kg.

By the way, the only product from this category that has not risen in price over the year is potatoes. Moreover, it even fell a little in price over the year. And if in January 2022 potatoes were the most expensive vegetable of the borsch set, now they are the cheapest.

However, how can one explain such high prices for beets, carrots, onions and especially cabbage, and why prices for borsch vegetables have risen so sharply over the year? We will also try to figure out whether there are prospects for lowering the prices.

Probably, this will come as a surprise to many in Ukraine, but despite the ban on the export of vegetables from Ukraine to Russia, it is Russia that is mainly “to blame” for the high prices for vegetables in Ukraine. Moreover, there are two important factors that led to an increase in vegetable prices in Ukraine, and which are directly related to Russia.

The first factor is the unprecedented shortage of vegetables in the Russian market. Since Russia has isolated itself from the markets of Ukraine and the EU, it is not easy to fill this deficit, and as a result, local consumers are forced to pay incredibly high prices for vegetables and potatoes, losing billions of dollars on this. This problem was previously partially solved by Belarus, which re-exported vegetables banned in Russia from the EU countries, but it has banned the import of vegetables and fruits from the EU and a number of other countries since January 1, 2022.

However, if Ukraine cannot export vegetables to Russia, how do the developments in the Russian market affect the Ukrainian market? It’s simple – Russia buys cabbage, carrots, beets and other vegetables wherever it can. Belarus has traditionally been a major supplier, but it also faced a crop failure in 2022, so it began to purchase vegetables in Ukraine. Today, the export of vegetables to Belarus is more profitable than their sale on the domestic market of Ukraine, and it is easy to guess that these Ukrainian vegetables are likely to end up on the Russian market.

The second factor that leads to an increase in prices for vegetables in Ukraine is also directly related to Russia. Due to the concentration of Russian troops on the borders with Ukraine and the threat of their invasion into the country, the national currency of Ukraine has been actively devaluing in recent weeks. This makes exports even more profitable, which means that the supply of vegetables for the domestic market is reduced. Thus, retailers have to raise prices in order to purchase vegetables from growers.

In the case of cabbage, another factor is added – the increase in the cost of imports. After all, Ukraine is now importing cabbage from Poland. If the UAH devalues, even with the price for cabbage in Poland remaining the same, its price in Ukraine grows in proportion to the devaluation of the UAH.

Of course, one cannot but take into account the reducing production of traditional borsch vegetables in Ukraine. “In recent years, grain prices have risen to record levels, while prices for borsch vegetables in Ukraine have remained stable. This almost equalized income per hectare of grains with income per hectare of vegetables. The risks in growing vegetables are much higher, it is more difficult to grow them, they are far from being stored as well as grains. Losses during storage of vegetables are much higher and even market risks are ten times higher than in the case of grain, which can always be easily sold. This has led many vegetable and potato growers in Ukraine to abandon the production of table beets, onions, carrots, cabbages and potatoes in favor of grains,” explains Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Will vegetable prices go down in the near future and in the new season? Unfortunately, there is no definite answer to this. However, the EastFruit team in Central Asia confirms a sharp increase in the area planted with early cabbage, the harvest of which is beginning in the southern regions of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. It is possible that it will become available on the Ukrainian market in February, leading to a reduction in wholesale and retail prices for cabbage.

As for other vegetables, one should not expect a significant decrease in their price in Ukraine in the coming months, given the situation with production and logistics in other countries of the region.

Opinions about the prospects for a new harvest are divided. Many market participants believe that high prices will lead to a sharp increase in acreage in Ukraine. Others point to the fact of a sharp increase in the cost of inputs, especially fertilizers, which may act as a deterrent to increasing areas, and may also affect vegetable yields.

Сообщение Why are traditional vegetables so expensive in Ukraine? появились сначала на EastFruit.

This is the second part of the analytical material by the EastFruit team on the most important events in the produce market in 2021 that will influence further developments in the sector. You can read the first part of the material here.

6. Very expensive Ukrainian borsch – table beets, onions, carrots and cabbage

Never before have vegetables of a “borsch set” in been as expensive as in 2021. However, there were various reasons. It is better to break the analysis into seasons, as each was very different.

To detail all the events in the market for vegetables of the “borsch set” in 2021, we would have to write several huge analytical articles. So, we will summarize them and list the key factors that led to such high prices in the market.

The situation on the Russian market has become one of the key factors influencing the Ukrainian market. Ukraine cannot directly export food products to the Russian market, but it still affects the situation in Ukraine. The forecasts we made when discussing the crisis in Russian vegetable growing 2 years ago in the article “Crisis of vegetable farming in Russia” came true in 2021. Supply and demand in the Russian market led to such a sharp increase in table beet and carrot prices that they became the cause of memes on social networks.

Naturally, Russian importers and supermarkets tried to eliminate the shortage of products by all possible means, which led to price increases in all countries supplying vegetables to Russia. One of them was Belarus, that filled its own shortage of vegetables by imports from both the EU and Ukraine. This resulted into prices for these goods in Ukraine reaching very high levels.

This allowed both growers and resellers, who bought beets during the autumn harvest, to make very good money on their resale in spring. However, Ukrainian vegetable growers did not increase the area of beet plantations, but kept reducing it. Therefore, many market participants had an idea to hit the beet jackpot in the 2021/22 season. There is still a chance they can do it.

The developments on the cabbage market were similar. In the new season, Russia faced an acute shortage of cabbage, provoking its price increase in all countries of the region, including Ukraine. As a result, wholesale prices for cabbage in Ukraine in mid-December 2021 exceeded last year’s levels by 5-6 times and were a record for this month. Thus, the imports of cabbage from Poland started, but the exports to Belarus (and to Russia) did not stop either.

The only question is, what will be cabbage prices in Ukraine in spring, and where will Ukrainian importers buy cabbage? It is not excluded that cabbage will have to be imported from Uzbekistan in March, where its prices are also record high, but a new harvest is to start in March.

Speaking about Uzbekistan, we can move on to the most sold position of the “borsch set” – onions. Ukraine faced severe price swings here, too.

The year started with record low prices for onions in Ukraine. The export of onions was record-breaking, but it did not please vegetable growers, as it did not help to raise the price level. We advise you to study this analytical article, where the reasons for such price swings were explained in great detail.

One of the most resonant EastFruit news about the onion market in 2021 was the message that the first wholesale lots of Uzbek onions arrived at the wholesale markets of Ukraine, when the last onions were still being harvested in Ukraine. Onion prices are usually very low during this time, but this year the imports started early.

Moreover, Russia had nothing to do with the import of onions to Ukraine after the record exports. Fruit-Inform analysts explain this with several reasons. The first is the extremely low onion prices in recent seasons, which forced the least efficient vegetable growers to stop growing onions. Secondly, the weather was unfavorable during the harvesting of onions in 2021. Therefore, a lot of onions with high humidity were laid in storages, and there are very few modern onion drying and processing technologies in Ukraine. Consumers needed high-quality onions, the deficit of which was discovered in autumn.

Therefore, wholesale prices for onions in Ukraine were almost 3 times higher by the end of 2021 than in 2020 and almost 1.5 times higher than in 2019.

Among the reasons for the record high prices for vegetables of borsch set in Ukraine, experts noted a sharp rise in prices for grains in the past two seasons, which made their production almost as profitable for small farmers as growing vegetables. Nevertheless, the level of market and loss risks in the grain sector was much lower than in the vegetable sector. This has led to a reduction in vegetable acreage in favor of grain acreage in 2021.

7.  Upcoming changes in produce retail business

There were unusually many events in Ukrainian fruit and vegetable retail in 2021. Perhaps the main one was the rumor about the entry of the German retail chain Lidl into the Ukrainian market.

Despite the information not being official yet, EastFruit experts analyzed how this will affect the trade in fruits and vegetables in Ukraine, if the discounter opens its stores in Ukraine. We consider this quite likely to happen. Our analytics on the issue was widely discussed among owners and top managers of supermarket chains in Ukraine.

A great event of the year was another confirmation of the high objectivity of the audits of the produce departments by EastFruit – our audits again managed to foresee the fate of the whole retail business. As in the case of the purchase of the Ukrainian Billa chain by Novus, we expected the exit from the retail business of the Furshet chain through the purchase by Silpo. The possible purchase of the Ekomarket supermarket chain, constantly occupying very low positions in our audits, by the owners of the Silpo chain was reported at the end of the year.

Silpo firing the management team of the chain’s fruit and vegetable departments became top news in 2021. Obviously, the chain is striving to improve its position in the segment, especially if it is going to expand further by purchasing weaker competitors.

An extraordinary event was the first international fruit and vegetable retail forum by the EastFruit team, APK-Inform: vegetables and fruits and UHA. The results of a unique study of the retail trade in fruits and vegetables by FAO and EBRD experts was presented there. In addition, the best supermarket chains in the produce trade in 2021 were identified and awarded in various nominations.

The winner in the main nomination “Leader of fruit and vegetable retail in Ukraine” (in terms of assortment, product quality, convenience and quality of departments and price level) was the supermarket chain “Auchan”. It also became the leader in the “Assortment of Vegetables and Fruits” nomination. The winner of the “Freshness and quality of vegetables and fruits” category was Metro, and of the “Prices for vegetables and fruits” category – ATB. The ATB chain also became the absolute favorite among the suppliers of vegetables and fruits according to the results of their survey. According to consumers, LeSilpo was recognized as the best chain.

8. Land market opening in Ukraine

Although the limited opportunity to buy and sell land plots which opened up in the midyear is still one of the most discussed topics in the fruit and vegetable community, it had minor impact on the market.

But the long-term impact of this event on the market will be huge. First of all, many investors will focus on buying out land in the next few years, which will somewhat reduce the investments in growing vegetables and fruits.

On the other hand, most farmers will now be more confident in investing money in land and infrastructure, knowing that this land belongs to them.

However, investments in the purchase of agricultural land for growing vegetables and fruits in Ukraine will be relatively low in relation to those made for plantation and providing infrastructure.

For example, you need to invest about $100 000 in one hectare of an intensive apple orchard, including seedlings, irrigation, apple storage, protection from hail, sorting, etc. One hectare of land is now being sold at $1 000-2 000. This means that this is only 1-2% of investments in production.

9. Record prices for greenhouse cucumbers in Ukraine and imports from Russia

It seemed at the beginning of 2021 that the greenhouse industry of Ukraine was starting to recover and the export of greenhouse vegetables began to grow. However, the incredibly high level of gas prices in the second half of 2021 canceled all these achievements and put the Ukrainian greenhouse industry on the brink of survival. Similar was observed in many European countries.

The worst fears about the prices of greenhouse vegetables have not yet been fully justified. It is partly due to Turkey experiencing a collapse in the lira exchange rate, which spurred exports at highly competitive prices. Nevertheless, the prices did renew the records, and primarily, this concerned cucumber prices.

The last crop cycle of greenhouse cucumbers in Ukrainian farms was distinguished by record high prices, at least over the past 4 years. Many greenhouse plants have relied on growing tomatoes in the second half of 2021. As a result, the area planted with cucumbers in greenhouses was reduced. In addition, the weather was unfavorable during the growing season. The combination of the above factors led to an insufficient supply of cucumber on the Ukrainian market, and sellers often increased prices for the available volumes.

Thus, the news that Ukraine imported greenhouse cucumbers from Russia for the first time became a sensation. According to trade sources, Russian cucumbers proved to be competitive in price with the Ukrainian ones, despite the 10% import duty due to Ukraine’s withdrawal from the free trade agreement with Russia. By the way, Russia exported its greenhouse cucumbers even to Poland!

However, this did not last long, and soon problems with the supply of cucumbers occurred on the Russian market itself. Therefore, cucumber prices set new records in the second half of December in Russia and exceeded those in other countries of the region.

Russian cucumbers contributed to the stabilization of prices on the Ukrainian market, and they fell back to $1.30/kg. But when the supplies stopped, greenhouse cucumbers began to rise in price again and they were sold at no less than $1.70/kg in the second decade of December 2021 in Ukraine.

10. Failures in the cherry and watermelon markets

Watermelon was one of the main export positions of the Ukrainian produce sector in 2020, when the exports record was set. Ukraine set two new exports record in 2021: the export of watermelons was record low, as were their prices. We analyzed this in more detail in the article “Watermelon Collapse in Ukraine”. As a result, many producers failed to sell watermelon even at the lowest price, and had to leave the watermelon on fields, although the season began with early watermelon being sold at record high prices!

Will this lead to a decrease in the area of watermelon plantations for 2022 harvest? The question is rhetorical.

The situation on the Ukrainian cherry market was just the same. There were record low prices and an anti-record of exports in recent years, despite an unusually high harvest.

The domestic market in Ukraine was oversaturated with cheap cherries from the very beginning of the cherry sales season, but the purchasing activity remained rather low. And it reflected the consumer perception of the quality of Ukrainian cherries, because Ukraine updated the record for cherry imports in 2021, almost doubling it compared to 2020!

Ukrainian cherry growers blamed everyone for their problems: the lack of exports opportunities to Russia, the country’s population decline, and even the COVID-19 pandemic. However, all these arguments break down on the fact that the Ukrainians preferred imported cherries because, like consumers in other countries of the world, they want high-quality cherries. And if consumers’ requirements for the quality of cherries are constantly growing, Ukrainian growers also need to grow.

In this article, we explained why cherries in Ukraine are not that cheap and why access to the Russian market would not have saved Ukrainian farmers from low prices for cherries. Here we showed that the global market for cherries is growing faster than their production, and prices are constantly increasing, as well. In other words, there is a shortage of cherries in the world! To be more precise, there is a shortage of high-quality cherries in the world, and this is the problem in Ukraine!

Cherries in Ukraine are mainly grown without irrigation, not to mention protection from rain, hail and frost. By the way, here is an example of how some leading producers are already growing cherries in Uzbekistan. And here you can read about the most effective frost protection systems for cherries and other fruits. Besides, more and more cherry growers in different countries start growing in greenhouses.

Therefore, if the approaches to the production, cooling and processing of cherries are not radically changed, Ukraine will not only reduce exports, but will continue to increase imports of cherries.

If we missed some of the important trends, please let us know in the comments section.

Сообщение Ukraine: TOP-10 events in the Ukrainian produce business in 2021 (part II) появились сначала на EastFruit.

2021 was probably one of the most controversial and difficult years for the economy and the produce industry in Russia over the past few years. In the first half of the year, the country’s economy was still in the aftermath of the collapse in 2020. COVID-19 restrictions in Russia were quite tough sometimes, and the vaccination rate is still unsatisfactory.

On the other hand, the second half of the year was more successful for the Russian economy, and, according to the World Bank’s forecasts, the country will have one of the highest GDP growth rates in recent years by the end of 2021. Oil prices, on which consumer demand for goods (especially imported ones) in Russia is largely dependent, also increased in comparison with the crisis year of 2020 and even exceeded five- or even six-year highs at times! In addition, we note the relative stabilization of the ruble against the US dollar, which allowed food importers to avoid setbacks in consumption due to a sharp drop in the price of the national currency.

The fruit and vegetable sector in 2021 was no exception, and all its participants felt quite sharp ups and downs. For Russian consumers, the year began with record prices for bananas due to rumors about them going extinct. After that, consumers were shocked by the prices of beets and carrots in the spring and summer. In the fall they were unpleasantly surprised by the cost of cabbage, and as early as next year they may face a shortage of potatoes.

In turn, producers suffered heavy damage from frosts and bad weather in the summer and, despite the occasional shortage in the market, complained about the lack of demand from retail chains that gave preference to imports. What was especially important for producers of seasonal products, the problem of labor shortages in Russia was not resolved and only intensified.

Traders will also face tougher work conditions on the Russian market due to the closure of Belarus for the supply of fruits and vegetables from the EU and some other countries. Moreover, the issue of introducing restrictions on apple imports during their active sales already rises at a serious level in Russia itself. Both factors can significantly complicate the work of wholesale operators on the Russian market, especially those who are focused on import trade.

We cannot but mention the positive aspects. Despite problems in the country’s economy, consumer demand for certain groups of goods showed active growth rates. Russia will be able to set a record for the import of such exotic products as sweet potatoes, asparagus, artichoke, durian, Brazilian and macadamia nuts, avocado and mango this year. Berry imports will also hit a record, but the reason will still be a drop in their production and quality problems due to late spring and bad summer weather.

We also note the natural, but still stunning results of the development of the country’s greenhouse industry, which allowed it to switch to exporting greenhouse vegetables to the EU and Eastern Europe in just 5-6 years. In particular, Russia supplied greenhouse cucumbers to the Ukrainian market for the first time.

We bring to your attention the 10 most important events of the Russian produce market in 2021.

1. Beets and carrots in Internet trends.

Event No. 1 of 2021, which was noted at all levels, from consumers to the government of the Russian Federation, was a sharp increase in prices for table beets and carrots in spring and summer.

Participants in the Russian market expected a shortage of beets and carrots even during the harvest in 2020. Due to bad weather in the summer and autumn of last year, Russian farmers reduced the production of beets and carrots, and their quality was low. Naturally, this strengthened the belief that prices would go up sharply in spring, since low-quality products were put into storage. But no one could have foreseen what actually happened in the spring and early summer of 2021!

Firstly, the cold spring delayed the start of harvesting local early root crops in Russia in 2021. Similar was observed in its neighboring countries. Secondly, heavy rains prevented the harvest of early beets and carrots after the start of the season. Thirdly, neighboring countries also ran out of stocks of last year’s root crops fast. As a result, there was nothing to satisfy the market demand, and prices soared upward.

During the peak periods of the summer of 2021, the average price for beets and carrots in Moscow reached $0.90/kg, and there were so few products offered that they became trends of the Russian Internet for some time. From Twitter to Pikabu.ru, the shock from the price of root vegetables has filled the Russian Internet. Let us recall a few humorous messages that became trends then: “More than three beets in one family at a time can serve as a reason for depriving the family of child benefits”, “Beets will soon become so expensive that they can be presented for a wedding or birthday” etc.

The main recognition of event No. 1 for the Russian fruit and vegetable market was the mention of beets in the material of the satirical news agency “Panorama” called “The Security Council will meet to discuss prices for beets“. As often happens, Panorama turned out to be close to the truth, and the issue of record prices was raised by the Deputy Prime Minister of the country at a meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with members of the government.

Prices for root crops in Russia remained high even after the start of the new season. It would seem that record prices in spring and summer should have attracted the attention of Russian farmers, and the areas planted with them were expected to rapidly grow in the fall of 2021. But due to the influence of weather, the average prices for root crops in Moscow in mid-December were 70-80% higher than last year and remain record!

2. Autumn record for cabbage prices.

Nevertheless, rising prices for root crops were not the only landmark event in autumn and the beginning of winter of 2021, as cabbage made the most unpleasant surprise for Russian consumers – event No. 2 on the Russian market in 2021.

The fact is that prices for root crops in Russia, although now much higher than last year, are still relatively stable. In addition, Russian traders can count on a possible increase in production in neighboring countries and hope to maintain a high-quality supply in their markets by spring.

As for cabbage, the situation is the most catastrophic now. The average price for cabbage in Moscow in September was twice as high as last year, but the difference reached 4.2 times by mid-December, and the price exceeded $0.50/kg!  Cabbage is the most expensive vegetable of the “borsch set” in Russia now, affecting both consumers and market participants, as finding free volumes for import is becoming increasingly difficult every day.

Moreover, the rapid rise in prices for cabbage in Russia has already caused a domino effect in neighboring countries, reducing the possibility of imports by next spring. Thus, Ukraine, relying on the consistently high demand from Russian buyers, sharply increased the supply of cabbage to the Belarusian market in autumn. As a result, the supply of high-quality cabbage on the Ukrainian market had decreased by December, and the prices had grown so much that Ukraine started importing cabbage from Poland. Similarly, prices for cabbage in Uzbekistan have skyrocketed, and local farmers are expecting record earnings from the exports of early cabbage to the Russian market next spring.

Thus, a rather interesting situation may develop on the Russian cabbage market by spring 2022. The offer of last year’s cabbage, most likely, will not fully satisfy the demand, since there will be nowhere to get it. On the other hand, there is a high risk of oversupply in the market for early cabbage, especially if the weather conditions for local farmers in Russia are more favorable.

As a result, a sharp increase in supplies of both local cabbages and early ones from Uzbekistan, North Macedonia, other countries of the Balkan Peninsula and Iran is quite likely. In turn, it will cause an equally rapid decline in prices.

3. Expected shortage of potatoes.

Beets and carrots were a shock for Russian consumers in spring 2021, and white cabbage replaced them in autumn – these events have already passed or have become clear. Event No. 3 on the Russian market in 2021 refers to a more distant future – an emerging shortage of potatoes.

Potato prices in Russia in the first half of the 2021/22 season were also record-breaking. In autumn, the average price for potatoes grew daily and was 2-2.4 times higher than last year. Russia actively imported potatoes during its own harvest, which was previously uncommon for the country.

Moreover, potatoes were imported to the Russian market not only from rather unusual countries, such as Iran, but even from those, where Russia had exported potatoes earlier – Georgia and Moldova. Ukraine, where prices were also growing fast, supplied its potatoes to the Russian market, too.

As of mid-December, the Russian potato market appears to be saturated with supply and prices have gone down. Nevertheless, the situation by the spring of next year will only depend on the stocks that local farmers and wholesale companies have filled with imported potatoes.

If there are enough high-quality potatoes in the storages of Russian companies by that time, the situation will be relatively stable. Nevertheless, even the slightest problems with the supply of potatoes in spring 2022 will lead to an even more acute shortage, as there will be almost nowhere to import them!

Potatoes from the EU will not enter the Russian market due to the import ban recently introduced by Belarus. Possible supplies of potatoes from the EU to the Russian market through Serbia will not fully cover the volume of past re-exports through Belarus. According to local market participants, the area planted with potatoes for harvesting in spring 2022 has significantly decreased in Egypt. It is more convenient for Pakistan to supply potatoes to the markets of the Middle East (where they are more expensive) or Uzbekistan (where logistics are cheaper), and the harvest in Iran alone is not enough to fully meet Russian demand.

As a result, of the possible close suppliers, only Ukraine remains, where prices are now more than two times lower than in Russia. Nevertheless, large volumes of high-quality potatoes have already been exported from Ukraine in autumn 2021. And as recent events have shown, the possibility of deliveries through Belarus can disappear with literally one stroke of the pen of the Belarusian leadership.

4. Russian cucumbers on the Ukrainian market.

The first ever entry of Russian greenhouse products into the Ukrainian market can be said to be event No. 4 on the Russian fruit and vegetable market in 2021. However, it is still more of a private nature, and the greenhouse sector of the Russian Federation should be considered in a broader perspective.

The rapid development of the greenhouse vegetable production in Russia with government subsidies and active investment support has finally started to bear fruit. Naturally, not all the finance allocated by the state for support reached the addressees and turned into modern greenhouse complexes. And it is also natural not to completely trust government statistics, which have shown a sharp increase in vegetable production in greenhouses since 2015.

What you can trust more is the statistics of the imports and exports of greenhouse cucumbers in Russia, and the trends are clear here: the imports of cucumbers decreased from 149 thousand tonnes to only 69 thousand tonnes from 2015 to 2020. The imports of tomatoes fell from 671 thousand tonnes to 490 thousand tonnes during the same period. Another decline in imports can be expected in 2021, since the indicators for January-October 2021 are also lower than last year’s.

At the same time, Russia began to actively exports its greenhouse vegetables (mainly cucumbers) last year. Of course, the volume of exports is not yet comparable to imports, and the country is still far from being a net exporter. Nevertheless, the very fact that Russian greenhouses are entering foreign sales markets is a huge step forward for a country that has always been an importer of greenhouse products.

Until 2020, the main volumes of greenhouse cucumbers were supplied mainly to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That is, they could not be considered a full-fledged export. But Russian greenhouse cucumbers have become available in Belarus, Moldova, the Caucasus countries and the EU since last year. The trend only intensified in 2021, and the volume of supplies to markets outside of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine in January-October 2021 was for the first time lower than exports in other directions!

Let’s combine these facts with the energy crisis in Europe this year. Given one of the lowest costs for heating greenhouses in Russia, it becomes a new powerful player in the market of greenhouse products in Eastern Europe – this would sound incredible several years back!

As for direct supplies to the Ukrainian market, we note that they were possible only for several days in mid-November. The volumes were small, and the difference in prices did not allow deliveries. Nevertheless, this event should still be considered in the context of the active development of the greenhouse industry in Russia over the past few years, the results of which are obviously positive.

5. Apple twists and turns of the year.

We suggest to move from the vegetable segment of the Russian market to its fruit and berry part, and we chose the apple market in Russia as the event No. 5 in 2021. The number of significant events on the apple market in 2021 was so high that we decided not to single out any of them, but to consider the situation comprehensively.

From the very beginning of the year, the participants of the Russian apple market noted the weakening demand, but hoped on the price rise by the spring-summer, typical for Russia in recent years. Nevertheless, demand did not increase by spring, and for the first time since at least 2017, the price of apples decreased in summer, in comparison, for example, with March.

That is, the country approached the start of the new apple season-2021/22 with a record harvest of apples in the countries of the Northern Hemisphere. It also experiences record stocks of last year’s apples in countries exporting them to Russia and a weakening demand for apples from buyers, who often prefer other products.

Despite the weakening demand, competition in the Russian market has only grown, both between local farmers and imports, and between importers from different countries. For example, the emergence of competitors from Iran on the Russian market back in February last year was a real shock for Moldovan apple suppliers. Then apple production in Iran reached a record level in autumn 2020, and Iranian apples continued to knock down the price on the Russian market in spring 2021.

As a result, under the pressure of high imports and the development of its own fruit production, apple prices in Russia literally collapsed at the beginning of the 2021/22 season! For example, in just two weeks at the end of August – beginning of September, “Gala” apples in Russia have fallen in price by a third. Subsequently, the prices for apples fell even more, and at the end of 2021, apples were sold in Russia on average 23% cheaper than last year. Apple prices were lower only in 2018.

Weakening demand for apples, followed by a rapid drop in prices, could not fail to cause a sharp reaction from local growers, who still felt serious competition with imports. In August of this year, when the main varieties of autumn and winter apples had not yet entered the market, rumors began to spread on the Russian market about possible quotas for apple imports.

Thus, a request was sent to the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation by branch associations of Russian farmers with the introduction of quotas on apple imports from September to April. There was no immediate government response, but access to the Russian apple market was complicated for suppliers from Serbia, Turkey, Iran, New Zealand and South Africa in November 2021.

Nevertheless, new significant restrictions on apple imports have not yet been officially introduced by the country’s authorities, and the ban on the imports of vegetables and fruits introduced by Belarus in relation to the EU and some other states can be considered the main gift to Russian growers. It is this decision that will be able to restrict the access of apples from European countries (in particular, Poland) to the Russian market, although trading companies are most likely to once again find another opportunity for re-exports.

For example, apple supplies to Russia through Serbia that already has such experience (albeit less significant than Belarus) seems quite probable. In addition, apples from Serbia can be supplied to the Russian market duty-free under the existing FTA between this country and the EAEU.

6. Record-breaking bananas.

While the price situation on the apple market could be called “collapse”, the segment of another most popular fruit was characterized by record high prices, especially in the first half of the year. Event No. 6 on the Russian market is a sharp rise in prices for bananas, that in the minds of consumers coincided with the spread of information about the possible extinction of bananas!

Prices for bananas at the end of winter and in the first half of spring in Russia were the highest since 2018, and reached at least a five-year record by the end of April – May! Bananas were expensive almost everywhere during that period, and their import to Russia in January-May 2021 also reached a five-year minimum.

The widespread record prices for bananas were associated with the situation in one of their key supplying countries in the global market – Ecuador, which has been hit by a series of disasters and setbacks. Social protests, the escape of the government from the capital, the devastation of the country by the COVID-19 pandemic, the collapse of global demand for bananas in 2020 after their record production, the eruption of the Sangay volcano in September 2020 and March 2021… This is not an exhaustive list of what the global leader in banana exports is facing!

One can only imagine what was going on in the minds of consumers when the most popular fruit became record-breaking expensive, and information about the possible extinction of bananas began to spread. It was associated with the rapid spread of the Tropical Race 4 (TR4) disease, which affects primarily the most exported Cavendish banana variety. In April 2021, this disease was already recorded in Peru, neighboring Ecuador.

In the meantime, Ecuadorian exporters had to urgently respond to a problem that arose nearby and reassure global market players of complete control of the situation, but the history of banana exports shows that Cavendish became the most exported banana variety only in the 1950s. Before that, almost no one knew about it. The Gros Michel variety was in the greatest demand on the global market, which was almost completely destroyed by the rapid spread of TR4.

7. Record import of berries.

Let’s move from the fruit sector to its berry segment, as it is there that event No. 7 took place on the Russian produce market – a record import of berries over the past year. A record figure is already evident even in the first 10 months of the year for two key berries of Russian imports at once: strawberries and blueberries!

In January-October 2021 alone, the country imported over 60 thousand tonnes of strawberries, which is almost 1.5 times more than the total volume in 2020! Basically, producers of strawberries from Turkey, Belarus and Serbia took advantage of such a sharp increase in demand from importers from Russia. At the same time, Turkey provided almost half of all imports to Russia for the specified period, and the total share of Belarus and Serbia amounted to about a third.

The record imports of strawberries was mainly associated with the weather in Russia. Firstly, snowfalls in December 2020 destroyed a large part of greenhouses in the southern regions of the country, which led to a decrease in the supply of strawberries in spring next year. Secondly, the late and cold spring significantly delayed the start of the field berry season, and imports filled the vacant place freely. Thirdly, spring and summer were rainy, impeding both the stable harvest of berries and the provision of its stable quality, which was an additional factor supporting the growth of interest in imports.

In the meantime, record blueberry imports were not affected by local production levels due to their nascent stage. According to the research “Market of tall blueberries in Eastern Europe” by the “APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits” project, the area planted with blueberries in Russia does not yet exceed several hundred hectares. Thus, the volume of harvested local berries cannot yet have any large impact on the market, and it is almost entirely dependent on imports.

The volume of blueberry imports in Russia in January-October 2021 has almost reached the total volume in 2020 (8.7 thousand tonnes VS 8.8 thousand tonnes). Considering the stable growth rates of interest in blueberries, the record is guaranteed to be set by the end of the year! The demand for imported blueberries in Russia is satisfied by both distant countries of the Southern Hemisphere (Chile, Peru) and suppliers from neighboring countries, such as Belarus and Georgia.

Russia is the main and almost the only direction of exports for both Belarus and Georgia. It was the growth in demand from Russian importers that allowed Georgian exporters to increase supplies by almost 1.5 times in 2021. The players of the Belarusian berry market also place their main stake on sales in Russia. Belarus mostly re-exported blueberries from the EU and Ukraine only a few years ago, but Belarusian blueberries are now supplied to Russia. Naturally, there are serious questions about the quality, and blueberries are still offered at the minimum price, but it will be quite difficult to ignore this fact in the future.

The last interesting fact of Russian berry imports in 2021 is the growing importance of local blueberries for the market. The country showed an increase in imports every month from April to October 2021 (the most active sales of blueberries), with only one exception. Imports decreased in comparison with last year, and the share of Russian blueberries increased in July, during the peak of local berry harvesting. This means that, despite the emerging blueberry growing industry in Russia, it has already begun to bear fruit. In other words, in the long term, the window of opportunities for exporting blueberries to Russia during the peak of local production will nevertheless narrow, and the position of Russian berries will grow.

8. A sharp increase in imports of exotic products.

Despite issues in the Russian economy, relatively sharp growth was also recorded in the import of other more exotic products – event No. 8 of the produce market in the Russian Federation.

In the first 10 months of 2021, the country has already exceeded the total volume of imports in 2020 for such products as Brazil nuts, macadamia, asparagus, artichokes and durian. Meanwhile, in the segments of avocado, guava, mango and mangosteen, as well as sweet potatoes and similar tubers, the record import is almost a sure thing, as import volumes for January-October 2021 were at a five-year high there.

Some products from this list can already be taken out of the “exotic” products, for example, avocado or mango. Others still remain unfamiliar to most Russian consumers (artichokes or durians), and some have already crossed the exotic stage, but have not yet achieved mass popularity (asparagus). Nevertheless, the demand for unusual and exotic vegetables, fruits, nuts and berries in Russia is increasing from year to year, as is the consumer’s willingness to expand their fruit and vegetable menu. 2021 was no exception in this regard!

9. Labor problems are on the rise.

Event No. 9 is an increase in labor issue. It is a continuation of the issue of 2020, although the market participants hoped that it would be at least partially solved in the outgoing year. These hopes have remained hopes, and the labor shortage in the fruit and vegetable sector in Russia has only grown.

The shortage of labor is a common phenomenon for countries beginning to develop fruit and vegetable production, especially its fruit and berry segment. It is in this segment that the share of manual labor is the highest. And in order to foresee the intensification of this problem, one has only to look at the experience of other countries that started fruit and vegetable development a little earlier than Russia. For example, this can be Poland, Ukraine or even the countries of the western part of the EU, which now have to find seasonal labor even in such remote countries as Vietnam.

It turns out that for the successful development of the fruit and vegetable production sector, government subsidies, import substitution programs, a ban on the import of products from competing countries, etc. are not enough. One of the most important points, which is often overlooked, is that the plantations must be monitored, the plantings must be cultivated, the crop must be harvested, and then handled and prepared for sale.

All this requires manual labor, as the possibility of mechanizing fruit and vegetable production (especially berries and fruits) is much lower than that of grain or oilseeds, more traditional for Russia. The demand for labor, especially seasonal, is growing along with the growth in the production of berries and fruits that has increased by 1.5 times in the country over the past decade!

The previous year was a shock for many industries, as due to quarantine restrictions in Russia and in the countries from which most migrants come, their number has decreased, and the country is discussing the shortage of labor. The issue in the construction sector was especially disastrous, and the programs of state support for the search and replacement of foreign workers were launched there. Fruit and vegetable production was left alone with this problem, as it could not compete with the construction sector in its influence on the economy.

It would seem that the easing of restrictions in 2021 should have improved this situation, but it turned out it is not that simple. Firstly, farmers involved in the cultivation of vegetables and fruits, as we said above, could not get into state programs for the import of migrants. Secondly, the cost of travel to Russia has increased everywhere due to the more expensive logistics globally. Third, migrants that remained in Russia gradually switched to higher-paid or less difficult work. Fourthly, organizing internal migration and attracting local labor turned out to be an even more difficult task due to the higher demands and requirements of such workers.

10. It could have been, but it did not happen – a turmoil with Turkish mandarins.

The event No. 10 on the Russian produce market is more hypothetical, but due to voluntaristic decisions of the country to ban the imports of certain products, just the discussion of the issue has sowed panic among importers and wholesale companies. We are talking about the “ban on the import of mandarins from Turkey“, which still did not come into force.

Just one inaccurate wording on the Rospotrebnadzor website, and a possible ban on mandarins from Turkey during the peak supply caused panic. Let us remind you that Turkey accounted for more than half of the total imports of mandarins in the Russian Federation last year. In addition, more than 50% of mandarins are usually imported into the country in November-December, and it would be impossible to quickly replace such volumes with supplies from other countries! The issue was that Russian consumers could celebrate the New Year without traditional fruits, and mandarins that would still enter the Russian market would be offered at record high prices.

Fortunately, the ban turned out to be a mistake, and consumers will enjoy the New Year’s fruit, and importers will not have to rack their brains to quickly arrange new shipments. Nonetheless, the latter did have problems in the past year, as we mentioned above. Firstly, the supply of apples from many countries to the Russian market was complicated by the decision of the Rosselkhoznadzor. Secondly, the re-exports of almost all fruit and vegetables from the EU through Belarus just recently became impossible due to the decision by the Belarusian authorities.

Сообщение TOP-10 events in the Russian produce business in 2021 – EastFruit появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to the record high prices of vegetables in Russia in 2021. Most of vegetables have risen in price by 1,5 to 2 times compared to last year and have set new records for September, when, as a rule, supply of vegetables exceeds demand on the market.

When in June prices for carrots and beets in Russia reached unprecedented levels, social networks bursted with funny memes, and officials hoped for a new harvest to significantly reduce the prices prices. However, most of the potatoes and vegetables of the so-called borsch set to be stored has already been harvested, but prices are record high and continue to rise.

“Last week, carrot prices jumped by 22% at once, and the price for potatoes increased by 8%. The summer drought followed by rains, when the produce had to be harvested, affected both volumes and quality of the grown produce. Market participants fear that there will not be enough high-quality potatoes and vegetables that can be stored until spring. The second factor influencing the rise in prices is the continued rains that delay the harvesting of potatoes, carrots and beets. Accordingly, the supply is not as high as it could be at this time”explains Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

By the way, Belarus is experiencing similar problems, where prices for vegetables and potatoes are also breaking records, and the country has already begun to import potatoes from Ukraine and other countries.

However, market experts emphasize that bad weather is not the main factor affecting the decline in production and the rise in prices for potato and vegetables. The vegetable growing crisis in Russia has been going on since 2019 and it was caused by a long period of low prices and low profitability of production, which EastFruit wrote about it, back in 2019.

The above chart of wholesale prices for potatoes clearly shows how far prices in 2021 have pulled away from their usual level at the end of September. In fact, potatoes are currently sold in Russia on average twice as expensive as last year.

Carrots have risen in prices slightly less than potatoes, but their prices have increased sharply last week. According to market participants, they will continue to grow. At the moment, wholesale carrots are 69% more expensive than at the same time last year.

The situation with onion prices is better – so far they are sold only 17% more expensive than last year. Moreover, they even have a slight tendency to decline. Also, onions in Russia are now cheaper than in other countries of the region. Therefore, the downward trend in onion prices may soon be replaced by growth.

Note that in the first seven months of 2021, Russia increased its imports of potatoes by 70%, carrots by 19%, but reduced onion imports by a third. The largest volumes of potatoes and onions were supplied to Russia by Egypt. Large volumes of onions were also imported from Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and China. The main part of carrots Russia imported from Israel, China, Egypt and Belarus.

Сообщение Potato and vegetable prices set new records in Russia появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to very high wholesale prices for potatoes, carrots and onions in Belarus that even continue to grow, despite the stocks in the country being at their maximum. At the same time, vegetable suppliers in the region are actively looking for contacts of importers of potatoes and other vegetables of the “borsch set”.

According to the monitoring of wholesale prices for vegetables and fruits in Belarus by EastFruit analysts, the price for potatoes increased by another 14% last week.

Thus, potato prices continue to break records of recent years for this period of the year, which contradicts the statement of the country’s authorities claiming that the potato harvest will increase in 2021. However, after our publication on Belarus importing potatoes during its own harvest for the first time, the Ministry of Agriculture of Belarus announced that the harvest will be “at the level of 2020”.

Obviously, market participants do not trust these statements, as potato prices in the country have risen again. Wholesale prices for potatoes in Belarus are now 78% higher than last year.

In addition, potatoes in Belarus are now more expensive than in other countries of the region, 40% more expensive than in Ukraine and 88% more expensive than in Poland.

Moreover, even in Moldova, which used to import large volumes of potatoes from Belarus, the prices are now much lower. Potatoes in Moldova are now 2.3 times cheaper than in Belarus. Therefore, now it is quite profitable to export Moldovan potatoes to Belarus!

Unfavorable weather this year, in particular the summer drought, had a negative impact on the harvest of potatoes, carrots and other vegetables, and rainy weather during the harvest aggravated the situation. This slowed down harvesting and reduced the quality of the vegetables and their suitability for long-term storage.

The price of carrots in Belarus has risen even more sharply than potatoes. Wholesale buyers of carrots pay for them twice as much as a year earlier.

Usually, carrot prices in Belarus decrease in the first half of September and then remain relatively stable. By the way, early carrots in Belarus this year cost much more than in previous years. This was due to their unprecedentedly high prices in Russia and the active supply of Belarusian carrots to this market. However, the prices for carrots in Belarus are now even higher than those in Russia by a third!

Ukraine has the lowest carrot prices in the region now. Therefore, it is Ukraine that is now actively supplying carrots to the Belarusian market. Also, carrots are imported to Belarus from Russia. It is also profitable for importers of Belarus to buy carrots in Poland, because they are 81% more expensive in Belarus now.

Onions in Belarus have risen in price less than other vegetables and this is the only vegetable that fell in price last week. Wholesale prices for onions in Belarus are now 45% higher than in 2020 at the same time and exactly twice as high as in 2019.

Unlike carrots and potatoes, conditions for growing onions are not suitable enough in Belarus. Therefore, the country often becomes a net importer of onions. At the moment, onion prices in Belarus are higher than in other countries of the regions, although both in Ukraine and in Russia they have risen comparing to last year.

Therefore, the gap in onion prices in the region is not as large as in potato and carrot prices, and its imports are not yet so attractive. This means that the prospects for growth in its prices are quite good now. After all, even Ukraine is now discussing the possibility of importing onions from Central Asia and has already started importing them from Moldova. Therefore, importers from Belarus should now take a closer look at onions from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. By the way, you can find suppliers in the largest fruit and vegetable trading group here.

Participants of the Belarusian vegetable market believe that potatoes, onions and carrots will continue to rise in price this season, because they consider production volumes to be insufficient and the quality of products low. They also emphasize that now mainly products not subject to long-term storage are offered on the market. As soon as their stocks are depleted, prices for all vegetables will rise again, traders say. Therefore, today’s price records for potatoes and root crops in Belarus are likely repeat soon.

Сообщение Prices for potatoes, onions and carrots in Belarus are record high – what are the reasons? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Trading company managers stated, “we entered the new year with warehouses filled with unsold vegetables.” This situation has developed among small and medium scale wholesalers, who in the pre-holiday period could not withstand competition with large supplying companies of supermarket chains. At the same time, it should be noted that to date small- and medium-sized traders and wholesalers purchased about 90% of the range of vegetables from local farmers. In a sluggish market, small traders supplying urban wholesale markets and small convenience store chains are forced to cut prices. According to observations by horticulture market operators, prices this winter have reached their lowest level in the last 3-4 years.

This drop is partly due to the relatively high harvest last year. According to statistics for 2020 in Moldova, agricultural areas under open field vegetables increased significantly up to 39,600 hectares (+8.2%) and potatoes up to 23,000 hectares (+27.3%). At the same time, 82% of all vegetable crops were planted in small farms. For them, the main distribution channel is small traders-buyers who supply the domestic market.

Read also: Moldovan traders expect increase in apple exports to Russia from the second half of January

In addition, 2020 was also a year of high activity for fresh fruit and vegetable imports. The situation was aggravated by the fact that last year some large retail chains abandoned purchasing local products from small traders and built their own import chains for basic assortment vegetables. Meanwhile, according to expert estimates, at least 60-65% of fresh goods sales today are provided by large supermarket chains.

The overall picture was also reflected in the fact that due to the pandemic, the volume of public procurement for the social sector – educational and medical institutions – has significantly decreased. This segment has always focused on locally produced vegetables and fruits.

As a result, even at the beginning of winter, wholesalers faced the problem of overstocked warehouses with perishable goods and were forced to periodically adjust price tags mainly downward. At the beginning of this week in the wholesale markets of Chisinau, the average price for white cabbage was set at a level not higher than 1.5 lei/kg ($0.09/kg), for carrots 2.6 lei/kg ($0.15/kg), onions 2.5 lei/kg ($0.15/kg), and for potatoes 3.0 lei/kg ($0.17/kg). For most of the items, the prices for borsch set vegetables are almost two times lower than in the same period a year earlier.

According to wholesalers, the downward trend in prices may persist to February until the depletion of local stocks or disruptions in vegetable imports.

Сообщение Prices falling in Moldova for roots, tubers, and onions due to overstocks появились сначала на EastFruit.

A few days before the New Year, EastFruit specialists analyzed in detail the outgoing year of 2020 highlighting the main distinctive features of the “New Year’s tables” in the current and previous seasons. The good news is that prices have mostly decreased and the choice has become much wider.

Ukraine ended last year in a completely different reality, but no one could have known a global pandemic was coming. The rapid spread of COVID-19, as well as the often chaotic and unpredictable actions of the Ukrainian authorities in these conditions, had a direct impact on the fruit and vegetable sector of Ukraine. How did it affect the prices of vegetables and fruits on the eve of the New Year holidays? Let’s analyze wholesale prices, which, as a rule, change more significantly than retail prices.

We will start with the main fruit in Ukraine – the apple.

Despite farmers’ statements that the 2020 apple harvest in Ukraine will be 15% or even 30% lower than in 2019, the estimates of independent experts refute these claims, in particular, the analysts of APK-Inform: Vegetables and Fruits. It is already obvious that the gross apple harvest in Ukraine for 2020 exceeded the indicators of 2019 by 5-7%. Experts stated that weather disasters if they did not completely destroy the apple harvest in 2020, did such damage that the share of sub-standard and/or second-grade products exceeded the previous indicators by at least 30%. To the disappointment of Ukrainian farmers, supermarkets were no longer lining up in front of them for an apple of any quality as it was a year ago.

As a result, Ukrainian farmers still have enough apples of the second grade and sales are carried out at prices starting from 7 UAH/kg ($0.25/kg). In 2019, it was impossible to buy an apple for less than 10 UAH/kg. High-quality apples are currently on sale, as in 2019, at 16 UAH/kg ($0.57/kg), but the volume of quality products this year is much lower than at the end of last year. It is precisely the insufficient supply of high-quality apples that will most likely prevent Ukrainian producers from increasing the volume of apple exports this season.

Read also: Pre-holiday prices in Moldova for citrus fruits rose 14%, salad vegetables fell 11%

Thus, an apple is on average sold in UAH 10-15% cheaper. If we take into account that the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar fell by about 17% over the year, then the real incomes of Ukrainian apple producers fell by almost a third.

Mandarins are the number 1 fruit on the New Year’s table of Ukrainians. According to experts, no problems with the harvest of this fruit have been recorded in the main producing countries this season. International trade for New Year’s Eve was carried out without any particular difficulties and the wholesale prices for mandarins are only marginally higher than last year’s figures. A wide price range of 26-40 UAH/kg for these citrus fruits are explained by the different quality parameters, variety types, and country of production. A special increase in the cost of mandarins among Ukrainian consumers is not expected despite the depreciation of the national currency.

The range of wholesale prices for lemons, which are currently on sale at prices ranging at 28-55 UAH/kg, has also significantly expanded at the end of 2020. In this case, EastFruit experts explain the colossal difference in prices precisely by the different quality indicators of lemons that are present on the Ukrainian fruit and vegetable market. In comparison to the same dates in 2019, the range of wholesale prices for lemons in Ukraine was significantly narrower amounting to 30-40 UAH/kg. Hence, there is no significant change in the price of lemons this year.

Bananas selling prices also expanded towards the end of 2020. As of the last week of December 2020, wholesale prices for bananas in Ukraine range from 20-29 UAH/kg. At this same time last year, bananas sold at 24-26 UAH/kg and there was already a choice of bananas. Now, bananas from different countries are available and the competition among banana importers has intensified. Therefore, bananas can now be bought even cheaper than in 2019. This means that given the 17% devaluation, banana importers sell them on average 20% cheaper since banana supplies are calculated in US dollars.

Potatoes are undoubtedly one of the main products for Ukrainians. However, this last season came as a shock for all participants in the potato market due to the huge import volumes, even from Russia, which we have written about previously. We also explained why the situation has not dramatically improved so far and that potato imports will continue.

Nevertheless, potato production in 2020 still increased both at household and professional farms. The result was a decrease in prices for potatoes but only by 15% in relation to the previous year. Wholesale prices for potatoes in Ukraine are now 2.5 times higher than in Poland and even higher than in neighbouring Moldova, a country that previously imported potatoes from Ukraine. Not surprisingly, Ukraine continues to actively import potatoes from the EU while local producers are holding back sales in hopes for a rise in prices in the second half of the season.

Onions and cabbage are two crops of the borscht set that disappointed farmers the most this season in terms of wholesale prices, but undoubtedly delight consumers. Despite the fact that in the previous season the lack of supply led to the establishment of very high prices for these products and in the onion segment high prices were held for 2 seasons in a row, producers continued to increase the area under both onions and cabbage. In addition, fairly good weather conditions have led to an increase in the yield of these crops and since the beginning of the current 2020/21 season it has become obvious that the supply of onions and cabbage significantly exceeds the demand.

White cabbage prices in Ukraine are currently 20% lower than a year ago and the situation with onions is even more serious since producers sell wholesale lots of these products almost twice as cheap as at the end of December 2019. Therefore, Ukraine remains the country with the lowest prices for onions in the world, but onion exports are not possible because Ukrainian producers do not have the quality and ability for export.

Beets and carrots are the only segments where the price tags of the past and current seasons practically coincide. The average price of root crops is near 3 UAH/kg. However, this is still a very low price, which is disappointing for farmers. Also, EastFruit analysts do not predict stability in these markets in the second half of this season because, in their opinion, problems with stocks in the storage of high-quality carrots and beets especially may begin in March 2021!

Сообщение Why have vegetables and fruits become cheaper in Ukraine? появились сначала на EastFruit.