According to EastFruit experts from Tajikistan, almond trees have recently blossomed in the Khatlon region because of climate change and abnormally warm weather in the southern regions of the country in October, November and December. A similar anomaly is observed in other regions of southern Tajikistan, bordering Afghanistan.

The weather is warm and bees collect nectar, since almonds are a very good honey plant. However, no one is happy about this, as it is very likely that there will be no almond harvest in the southern regions of Tajikistan in 2022.

“Frosts are almost inevitable in winter – they happen every year. This means that the harvest of almonds on trees that have bloomed will most likely be lost,” says Bakhtiyor Abduvokhidov, international consultant to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), who shared photos of almonds blooming on December 26, 2021.

Recall that in 2020, Tajikistan suffered from two waves of frost and abnormally warm weather in February, which led to the loss of a large part of the harvest of early varieties of cherry, apricot and almond. This led to a sharp increase in dried fruit prices in the region, as stone fruits and almonds were also affected by these frosts in other Central Asian countries. There are enough methods to combat frosts (you can read about them here and here), but it is more difficult to deal with the abnormally early flowering in orchards due to climate change.

Сообщение Almonds bloomed in Tajikistan in December – the harvest of 2022 is at great risk (photos) появились сначала на EastFruit.

According to EastFruit experts in Uzbekistan, nature has presented many bad surprises for producers in Central Asia this year. Today there is a high probability of the loss of about half of the potential harvest volume of stone fruits in several regions of the Republic, including Bukhara, Samarkand, part of Jizzakh, Syrdarya, and Tashkent regions. Combined, these regions form 36% of the total production of fruits and berries in the country.

However, this preliminary loss estimate based on farmer surveys by EastFruit experts does not take into account the climatic anomalies that are unfolding right now. Unfortunately, the situation may change for the worse by next week. Below is a sequential list of the climatic surprises that have already occurred and negatively impacted the potential harvest of stone fruits in Uzbekistan.

The first surprise was the unusually warm weather in late January and early February led to a very early awakening of nature. As a result, stone fruit orchards bloomed. Almonds, apricots, and cherries blossomed in the southern and central zones of Uzbekistan. Thankfully, flowering had not yet begun in the northern part of the Republic. This warm weather surprise did not bode well since the average temperature throughout the year, and often during the seasons, is relatively constant. Anomalous warming increased the likelihood of a sharp cold snap or frost at the beginning of spring.

The second surprise soon followed at the end of February. A cold cyclone came from the Volga region and the farmers’ worst fears came true. On February 18 at the peak of flowering for certain stone fruit species, it was +26 in the afternoon and +18 at night in Tashkent. Then, one week later, the air temperature dropped to -5 in the afternoon and -9 at night. This cold weather lasted 2-3 days, which was enough to ruin the flowers on the trees.

Read also: Despite frost, dovcha appears in supermarkets of Uzbekistan! Where did they come from?

At the beginning of March, the Ministry of Agriculture of Uzbekistan began full-scale monitoring of all orchards, vineyards, and other farmland throughout the country to assess the damage from frost. Without waiting for official data results, EastFruit conducted a sample survey of farmers with many years of experience from different regions of the country and published preliminary estimates. According to these estimates, farmers in the northern and southern parts of the country have practically avoided losses. Firstly, for those regions, the flowering of stone fruit trees had not yet begun. Secondly, the frosts turned out to be milder than expected and the temperatures there dropped only to zero degrees. The central region of Uzbekistan suffered the most. The surveyed farmers of the Samarkand and Bukhara regions reported almost complete loss of their future harvest of apricots (early varieties) that had blossomed and up to 50% loss of sweet cherries.

The third surprise (and second frost) arrived after the two weeks of warm weather that followed the first frost in late February. On March 13, a second cold cyclone came from the north. By March 14, in the capital of the republic and Bukhara, thermometers showed -3 degrees Celsius day and night. In Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, some areas of Navoi, and Samarkand regions, snowfall and strong wind gusts even led to damage of power lines.

There was no snowstorm or blizzards in the capital city of Tashkent, only a little snow fell and melted by the next morning. Air temperatures plummeted across the country with the exception of the Fergana Valley. In this part of the country, the air temperature dropped to zero or slightly lower from March 14 to 15; during the day it was about five degrees Celsius. As a result, the stone fruit harvest in the central and middle zones of the country was hit again with frost.

The Ministry of Agriculture did not have time to fully assess the damage from the first frost. Now, most likely, the Ministry will have to revise the results of the monitoring carried out in the first ten days of March. How much the preliminary results will worsen is difficult to predict. However, according to forecasters, the air temperature will begin to rise starting from the second half of this week and warm weather should re-establish.

Let’s hope that there will be no more new weather surprises. However, taking into account the current known losses, it is probably not necessary to count on a record harvest of stone fruits. Given the cold weather, active pollination of those fruit crops, which depend on pollination by bees, cannot be expected and we are talking about one of the main export fruits of the region – cherries.

As practice shows, weather anomalies can negatively affect fruit quality. In turn, this can lead to a decrease in their value and the impossibility of exporting significant volumes. Therefore, it is possible that the income of producers in 2021 from the production of stone fruit crops will decrease, not only due to a likely decrease in production volumes.

EastFruit will closely follow as events unfold and promptly inform about the impacts of such sudden changes in air temperatures for this year’s harvest.

Сообщение Uzbekistan suffered three climatic surprises in three months, half of stone fruit crops lost появились сначала на EastFruit.

Last week, EastFruit analysts drew attention to the impending cold cyclone coming to Central Asia as a serious threat for the future fruit harvests. The abnormally warm weather established in the region from the end of January and the beginning of February for this time of the year led to nature awakening too early and, as a consequence, the blooming of stone fruit trees. In the southern and central parts of Uzbekistan, spring came a few weeks ago. There, almonds, apricots, and cherries blossomed in all their glory and, in the north, the buds are just ripe and ready to bloom.

The current flowering pattern and the predicted sharp cooling to -9 at night and to -5 degrees Celsius in the daytime resemble two waves advancing against each other. The resulting collision of which, with a high degree of probability, will result in the loss of a part of the future fruit harvests.

EastFruit interviewed growers, farmers, and specialists from the Fergana Valley, Bukhara, Samarkand, and Surkhandarya regions of Uzbekistan on how they assess risks of losing future stone fruit crops. It should be noted that the first three regions provide almost 70% of the fruits and berries produced in the republic.

Below are several viewpoints reflecting the most common vision by region:

Nizom Akbarov, a farmer from Kuvasay in the Fergana region, mainly fears large losses in the apricot crops:

“Kuvasay specializes in farming. Without exaggeration, I can say that all kinds of fruits that are in Uzbekistan are grown here. My orchard is mainly represented by three types of fruits: cherries, peaches, and apples. In our area, no trees have blossomed, but the buds are already ripe and just about to bloom.

As for the risks from the cold weather that is coming, I am more concerned about the apricot harvest since these trees are inherently weak. In addition to cold weather, their yield is also affected by the level of precipitation and other factors related to weather conditions. If the weather forecast is correct, we may even lose the [apricot] harvest this year.

Sweet cherries are generally more persistent in this regard, but at subzero temperatures predicted by forecasters, losses cannot be avoided here either. I remember how at the end of March 2013 or 2014 the cold also hit with snow – we lost about 35% of the sweet cherry crop.”

Mahmud Oripov, a specialist in agricultural economics with a PhD and associate professor of Bukhara State University, believes that the loss of stone fruit yield from the coming cold weather can range from 30% to 80%, depending on the variety and type of these fruits:

“The sudden and abnormal weather for this time of year – sharp warming since the beginning of February this year – led to an early awakening of nature from hibernation. As a result, we see the flowering of almonds, certain varieties of apricots (but not all of them), and early varieties of apples, in particular in Bukhara. Also in a state of flowering are sweet cherries, sour cherries, and a type of plum used for prunes called “kora olu” («кора олу» in Russian), or dark cherry, one of the famous gifts of nature in Bukhara specifically.

Harvest losses from the upcoming cold weather can be significant. If we talk specifically about the types of stone fruits, then under the threat of loss:

• 55-60% of the future harvest of almonds;
• 70-80% for apricot varieties that have already blossomed;
• 30-35% for other apricot varieties that have not yet blossomed;
• 35-40% for plums.”

Ilham Dzhuraev, a grower from Payaryk district of Samarkand region:

“Almonds and apricots have already blossomed in our area. Almonds can be considered more resistant to sudden cold snaps than apricots, which are predicted in the coming time. On the harvest of the latter, we can lose 70-80% if such cold weather hits.”

Growers and farmers interviewed from other districts of the Samarkand region located closer to the mountainous areas reported that fruit trees have not yet blossomed.

Gulpari Bozorova, a farmer from the Surkhandarya region, sees the risks from the coming cold weather not only for stone fruit species but also for grapes:

“Apricots, almonds, cherries, and Japanese quinces have already blossomed in our country. Of these, the almonds have bloomed and managed to create fruits. Forecasters predict a sharp cooling with minus temperatures at night. We are already worried about the future harvest.

At-risk are apricots, cherries, apples (early) and quinces. The future grape harvest is also under threat since grape bushes are not buried in Surkhandarya in winter, they winter in the open. Sharp abnormal warming, which began at the end of January this year, led to an untimely awakening of the vineyards. Now, we are worried that we may lose part of the harvest.

In general, crop losses can be around 30%, but the weak link is apricots. The harvest of this stone fruit species can suffer even from strong winds, frequent rains, not to mention freezing temperatures after flowering.”

All growers and farmers interviewed intend to use the old traditional way of protecting their orchards from such sudden changes in temperature during or on the eve of flowering trees: prepare a mixture of manure and hay, place such heaps throughout the orchard and set them on fire. The resulting thick smoke envelops the orchard and thus helps to protect trees from sub-zero temperatures.

The volumes of apricot production in Uzbekistan for 2017-2019 were relatively stable with fluctuations within 10% (+/-). The production of sweet cherries during this period increased by 39.3% and the production of almonds generally increased 5 times. It is difficult to predict how and to what extent the coming cold weather will affect the production volumes and prices of stone fruits in Uzbekistan. However, EastFruit will closely follow the development of events and promptly inform about all changes.

Сообщение Farmers in Uzbekistan estimate crop losses from 30% to 80% for cherries, apricots, grapes, and almonds появились сначала на EastFruit.

A tragedy began to unfold yesterday in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – entire harvests of apricots, cherries, almonds, grapes, and other crops that flowered too early are under threat of frost. We were concerned about this last week in our article “Uzbekistan and Tajikistan may lose entire crops of apricots and cherries in 2021.”

The video below shows the very beginning of bad weather in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. On the afternoon of February 24, 2021, snow began to fall and the air temperature dropped sharply. Over the next five days, frosts are expected at night down to minus 10 or lower. A similar situation is in Tajikistan and even in the southern regions of Uzbekistan. According to EastFruit experts, even crops such as early potatoes and onions are under threat in almost all regions of Central Asia.

Watch the video:

Сообщение Snow, frost, and blooming apricots in Uzbekistan (video) появились сначала на EastFruit.