The volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan in March 2022 amounted to 15 400 tonnes, which is almost three times higher than in the same period in 2021, EastFruit analysts report, citing official data on imports of main food products.

In total, Uzbekistan imported 40 100 tonnes of bananas from the beginning of January to the end of March 2022, which is 2.5 times more than in January-March 2021 and almost 4 times more than in January-March 2020.

The sharp increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan last year was noted by EastFruit experts as one of the TOP-10 fruit and vegetable events of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the upward trend in the consumption of bananas even accelerated. The growth rate of banana consumption in January-March 2022 compared to the same months in 2021 was higher than that in 2021 as a whole. For comparison: in total, Uzbekistan imported 89 400 tonnes of bananas in 2021, which is 2.4 times more than in 2020.

One of the factors in the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan was the removal of customs duties on banana imports. In October 2021, the country’s government decided to stimulate the imports of a number of fruits by exempting their import from import duties. Bananas were included in the list. The government’s decision to remove the duties served as an additional incentive for the growth of consumption of bananas in Uzbekistan in the last months of 2021 and January-March 2022, since import statistics showed a solid increase in the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan even before October 2021.

Сообщение Uzbekistan almost tripled banana imports in March 2022 появились сначала на EastFruit.

The sharp increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan last year was noted by EastFruit experts as one of the Top-10 fruit and vegetable events of 2021. The upward trend in banana consumption continued in the first two months of 2022, and the growth rate was not lower than in the same period in 2021.

According to EastFruit analysts, Uzbekistan imported 24 700 tonnes of bananas in January-February 2022, which is 2.4 times more than in the same period in 2021. For comparison: in total in 2021, Uzbekistan imported 89 400 tonnes of bananas, which is also 2.4 times more than in 2020.

Moreover, the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan in January-February has been growing for at least the third year in a row.

Noteworthy, banana imports in two months of 2022 in physical terms exceeded total imports in 2018 (23 600 tonnes) by almost 5% and exceed total volume in 2017 by 40% (17 500 tonnes).

One of the factors in the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan was the zeroing of customs duties on banana imports. In October 2021, the country’s government decided to stimulate the import of a number of fruits by exempting their import from paying import duties. Banana was also included in the list of such fruits. As a result, banana prices in the last months of 2021 were much lower than last year. This ratio remained in the first two months of 2022.

In January-February 2022, the average wholesale banana prices were on average 20% lower than in the same period in 2021. As of March 4, 2022, the average wholesale price in Uzbekistan was 15 000 UZS/kg ($1.38), which is 23% lower than on the same date in 2021.

The government’s decision to zero import customs duties served as an additional incentive for the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan in the last months of 2021 and January-February 2022, since import statistics showed a solid increase in the volume of banana imports to Uzbekistan even before October 2021. In January-October 2021, Uzbekistan imported 60% more bananas than in total in 2020 and 37% more than in total in 2019. EastFruit analysts identified three reasons for the considerable increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan in 2021.

Сообщение Uzbekistan: banana consumption kept growing in January-February 2022 появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts draw attention to the abnormally high prices for fresh apples on the Uzbek market this season. Currently, wholesale prices for popular varieties of fresh apples, even of average quality, are mainly higher than those for imported citrus fruits and bananas. High-quality apples are sold at even higher prices. Only table grapes and pears are more expensive than apples in wholesale trade.

It should be noted that there are less popular apple varieties on the market, which are sold cheaper than bananas, oranges or mandarins. Wholesale prices for local varieties or Renet Simirenko of medium and low quality are almost twice lower than for Golden Delicious and Granny Smith and start at 8 000 UZS/kg, which is equivalent to $0.74. This is quite expensive, too, considering that the prices in Ukraine or Moldova are 2-3 times lower.

What is the reason for such high prices for apples in Uzbekistan? Many attribute this to a low apple harvest due to frost. In particular, in an interview for EastFruit, the director of Fruit House Organics and intensive farming specialist Shukhrat Abrorov said that the apple harvest in many regions was largely affected by spring frosts. Unfortunately, frost protection systems in the orchards of Uzbekistan, as a rule, are not used.

The second reason is the relatively high prices for apples this year in Iran, which could partially compensate for the shortage. According to local traders, Iran harvested less apples in 2021 than in 2020, which, obviously, was caused by spring frosts that destroyed part of the crop in Uzbekistan.

The third reason is the remoteness of Uzbekistan from other apple exporting countries, which makes the supply of fresh apples to the country quite expensive. This is exacerbated by the fact that the cost of logistics has also risen sharply in all countries of the world, including our region, in 2021. Neighboring Tajikistan already imports apples from Ukraine and Moldova, but prices are also quite high there. Moldovan apples have already become available in stores in Uzbekistan, too.

As you can see in the chart above, Uzbekistan is the leader in terms of prices for apples of the most popular varieties. Prices there are almost twice as high as in neighboring Tajikistan and prices for Golden Delicious apples are 7 times higher than in Ukraine. As for the cheapest apple varieties, prices in Uzbekistan are on average 3.5 times higher than in the Ukrainian market.

Given the situation in the regional apple market, we do not expect a decrease in apple prices in Uzbekistan until the very beginning of the next season. And this means that those Uzbek growers who have installed frost protection systems and built modern fruit storage facilities where they can store apples until spring can count on very high profits at the end of the season.

Сообщение Why apples are more expensive than bananas and citrus fruits in Uzbekistan, and when will the prices decrease? появились сначала на EastFruit.

EastFruit analysts compared the wholesale prices for fruits in Uzbekistan at the end of January 2022 with the prices recorded at the same time last year and figured out that most categories of local fruits have risen in price significantly. On the other hand, imported fruits such as citrus fruits and bananas have fallen in price.

Obviously, the decline in prices for bananas, oranges and mandarins is due to the decision of the Government of Uzbekistan dated October 21, 2021 to temporarily cancel import duties on a number of fruits. As a result, wholesale prices for bananas in Uzbekistan on January 28, 2022 were 17% lower than last year, prices for oranges were 22% lower, and prices for mandarins were 23% lower than in 2021. It should also be added that the Uzbek sum devalued by only 3% in a year. However, since we are talking about imports, we can say that real prices have fallen even more.

It can be seen on the example of bananas that their prices in the Uzbek market are at a much lower level than usual. In addition to the abolition of import duties, increasing competition among supermarket chains in the retail market of Uzbekistan, in particular, among foreign ones, stimulates a decrease in prices in the market. After all, supermarket chains prefer to work with imported fruits, which they can import directly and sell at a competitive price.

Read also: Uzbekistan imported a record volume of oranges in 2021

At the same time, prices for table grapes, which were sold very cheap during the season, are now already 7% higher than last year. Although grape production in Uzbekistan has increased in 2021, it is likely that the storage infrastructure, as well as growing technologies to maintain the quality of grapes until spring, leave much to be desired in the country.

Wholesale prices in Uzbekistan for pears are now 9% higher than at this time in 2021, and apple prices are on average 80% higher. Apple production in the country in 2021 decreased due to frost, which influenced prices.

Сообщение Uzbekistan: over the year prices have increased for all fruits, except bananas and citrus fruits появились сначала на EastFruit.

The average wholesale banana prices in Uzbekistan have decreased by 18% over the past two weeks and the current levels are the lowest if compared to the same dates in 2021 and 2020, EastFruit analysts say.

According to EastFruit price monitoring, the average wholesale prices for bananas decreased from 17 000 to 14 000 UZS/kg (from $1.6 to 1.3) from January 7 to January 21, 2022, i.e. by 18%. Moreover, the current levels of wholesale prices are much lower compared to those on the same date in previous years. As of January 21, 2022, the average wholesale banana prices in Uzbekistan are 22% lower than on the same date in 2021 and 13% lower than in 2020.

The main factor in such dynamics of banana prices in Uzbekistan is the elimination of customs duties on their imports. We remind you that in October 2021, the government of the country decided to stimulate the imports of a number of fruits, exempting them from import duties. Banana was also included in the list. As a result, the reduction in import duties allowed the country’s consumers to buy this product not grown in Uzbekistan at a much lower price.

The government decision served as an additional incentive for the growth of banana consumption in Uzbekistan in the last months of 2021 and early 2022, since import statistics showed a solid increase in banana imports to Uzbekistan even before October 2021. In January-October 2021, Uzbekistan imported 58.6 thousand tonnes of bananas, which is 60% more than in total in 2020 and exceeded imports in 2019 by 37%. EastFruit analysts identified three reasons for such a solid increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan in 2021.

The sharp increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan was also noted by EastFruit experts as one of the TOP-10 main fruit and vegetable events of 2021.

According to preliminary estimates by EastFruit analysts, the upward trend in banana consumption in Uzbekistan continued in the first half of January this year. From January 1 to January 17, 2022, the volume of banana imports amounted to 7.3 thousand tonnes, which is 18% more than for in total in January 2021 and almost 2 times more than in January 2020.

Сообщение Banana prices in Uzbekistan have fallen by 18% over the past two weeks появились сначала на EastFruit.

This is a continuation of the first part of the article on the main fruit and vegetables events in Uzbekistan.

6. Expensive berries and missed opportunities in the berry business

2021 was remembered for the high prices for strawberries and raspberries. Strawberries became available on wholesale markets in the 20th of April at an average price of 60,000 UZS/kg ($5.7), which is 3 times higher than last year. Wholesale prices dropped to 25,000 UZS/kg ($2.4) in two weeks, which was twice higher than on the same date in 2020. The strawberry season ended in the beginning of June, and wholesale prices had dropped only to 20,000 UZS/kg ($ 1.9) by that time, which is 30% higher than last year.

The first large batches of raspberries became available on the wholesale markets of Uzbekistan in early June, and the season ended in mid-November. Average wholesale prices fluctuated in the range of 21,000 – 55,000 UZS/kg ($2.0-5.2). Throughout the 2021 season, the gap in average wholesale prices from last year’s levels was quite large: they were 20-65% higher compared to 2020, and 2-3 times higher compared to 2019. However, the rise in prices was quite modest compared to the rise in prices for raspberries on the global market, where they are sold mainly frozen.

Due to such high prices, Uzbekistan began importing raspberries from Tajikistan in 2021 for the first time, raising raspberry prices there.

Despite high prices, in 2021, frozen raspberries were exported from Uzbekistan to the Russian market for the first time. In total, Uzbekistan exported 83 tonnes of frozen raspberries to Russia in August-September 2021.

EastFruit analysts have repeatedly noted Uzbekistan ignoring opportunities in the berry business, despite the excellent climate and available labor, the lack of which hinders the expansion of raspberry production in other countries. The situation in the country seems to be changing: the establishment of new raspberry plantations started in autumn 2021 in the Fergana region of Uzbekistan, the total area of ​​which will be 300 hectares. Thus, Uzbekistan joins the raspberry boom in many other countries.

Let’s hope that high prices for strawberries and raspberries will be a signal for Uzbek investors who ignore the most profitable and fastest growing segment of the global fruit and vegetable market.

7. New trends in the export of fruits and vegetables

EastFruit analysts note a very important and long-awaited trend in the international trade in fruit and vegetables in Uzbekistan – the volume of exports of frozen vegetables and fruits more than doubled in 2021 compared to 2020. Moreover, there was a shift towards a higher price product category in the structure of frozen fruit export.

According to preliminary data, Uzbekistan exported 12.1 thousand tonnes of frozen vegetables worth $9.3 million in 2021, which is 2 times more in volume and 2.3 times more in terms of exports earnings compared to 2020. As for frozen fruits, the export volume of this category amounted to 5.8 thousand tonnes worth $7.6 million, which is 2.1 times more in physical terms and 2.5 times more in terms of export earnings compared to 2020. EastFruit wrote about the structure of exports of frozen vegetables and fruits from Uzbekistan at the end of October 2021.

Uzbekistan also significantly increased its peanut exports in 2021. In volume, the exports exceeded the level of 2020 by 67% and was twice higher than in 2019. According to preliminary data, Uzbekistan exported 21.7 thousand tonnes of peanuts worth $23 million in 2021. Peanut exports from Uzbekistan to China increased the most. There were no peanut supplies to the Chinese market until 2020. However, 400 tonnes were delivered in 2020, and in 2021 Uzbekistan increased its peanut exports to China 5.5 times compared to 2020! The growth potential of supply of peanuts to China is indeed high. For more information on the structure of peanut exports by major importing countries, read the EastFruit material dated December 17, 2021.

Uzbek farmers have been actively expanding the area of pomegranate plantations in recent years. Based on plans to establish new plantations and taking into account existing ones EastFruit experts expect the annual production of pomegranate in the republic to reach at least 600 thousand tonnes in the next 5-10 years. It is obvious that the domestic market will not be able to consume such a large volume of pomegranate, and the stake is made on increasing the exports.

As statistics show, there have already been noticeable successes in increasing the exports of Uzbek pomegranate – for the second year in a row, the export volume of new harvest pomegranates has been growing. The exports season for pomegranates from Uzbekistan starts in August (the harvest of early varieties starts at the end of July) and ends in February-March next year. Thus, Uzbekistan has made it through the most of the 2021/2022 season. According to preliminary data, it exported 14.7 thousand tonnes of pomegranate worth $10.9 million from August to December 2021, which is 32% more in kind compared to the same period in 2020 and 50% more than in August-December 2019.

At the end of March 2021, EastFruit analysts presented a detailed analysis of a new strategic priority in the country’s fruit sector – increasing pomegranate production. The article was much cited by the media in China, as it is the largest importer of pomegranate in the world. Together with Hong Kong, China imports more than $1 billion of pomegranates a year.

8. Growth in banana consumption in Uzbekistan

In 11 months of 2021, Uzbekistan imported 2.2 times more bananas compared to the same period in 2020. Moreover, the import volume during the reviewed period was almost twice higher than the total import volume in 2020 and 64% higher than that in 2019.

EastFruit analysts identify three reasons for the continuation of the growing trend and such a solid increase in banana consumption in Uzbekistan in 2021:

First, the influence of rumors that discredited bananas during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, probably faded away in 2021. The second reason is the relatively high prices for fruits and vegetables in Uzbekistan, particularly for stone fruits, due to weather anomalies in 2021. Bananas were relatively cheap in 2021 compared to apricots, cherries in the first half of the season, apples of early and mid-season varieties, and pears. Third reason is the expansion of supermarket chains that have a crucial impact on the banana trade in the country. Banana is a very convenient product for supermarkets, as they can import it directly all year round and sell it cheaper than in the markets due to the large volume and VAT refunds. Therefore, banana is the best-selling fruit in supermarkets of Uzbekistan. And as the number of supermarket chain stores in the country grows, the consumption of bananas will grow.

Let’s remind that Uzbekistan was earlier included in the list of countries with ultra-low consumption of bananas. By the end of 2019, residents of Uzbekistan consumed only 700 grams, or about five bananas per year per person. The analysis of banana consumption by countries of the world and our region in particular is available here. It seems that despite a sharp increase in the consumption of bananas in Uzbekistan, its position in this global ranking will not change much by the end of 2021.

9. Large-scale concessional financing, subsidies and a new system for the development of the produce sector

EastFruit regularly covered new initiatives of the government of Uzbekistan to stimulate fruit and vegetable producers, support the industry with subsidies, concessional financing and the introduction of new mechanisms in 2021. Below we list the main initiatives of 2021 that are important in the development of the produce sector of the economy.

In early June 2021, EastFruit wrote about the creation of modern greenhouses based on public-private partnerships. Housing and greenhouse complexes will be built in Uzbekistan on low-yielding lands so that people willing to engage in greenhouse farming, could live and work close. Each housing and greenhouse complex will be of ​​at least 20 acres. Within the framework of the partnership, the state will allocate land for the complexes, install utility systems (gas, water, electricity, internal roads) to housing and greenhouse complexes and provide benefits.

It was announced at the end of August that the state would allocate a total of $100 million for targeted financing of projects to create modern greenhouses. However, as there are still issues with country’s greenhouse industry access to gas, it is forced to pollute the environment, damaging the health of people. Therefore, solutions to these very pressing problems for the industry are needed.

At the end of October 2021, EastFruit wrote about specific measures of state support and incentives for fruit and vegetable producers, the implementation of which is envisaged at the beginning of 2022. They include concessional financing, insurance of vegetable and fruit harvest against weather risks, subsidies for the modernization of agricultural machinery, incentives for the imports of equipment, their components, as well as benefits for the planting of new disease-resistant crop varieties and the introduction of water-saving technologies. In mid-November 2021, it was reported that Uzbekistan would allocate almost $400 million to support the fruit and vegetable industry in 2022.

On November 24, 2021, the introduction of a new development system for the produce industry in Uzbekistan was announced. It will be based on strengthening the role of clusters, introducing new cooperation mechanisms, financing fruit and vegetable producers and expanding the provision of agricultural services. In particular, 200 thousand hectares of low-profitable sown areas freed from cotton and grain will be returned to the reserve in 2022–2025. Of these, it is planned to allocate 80 thousand hectares for the production of fruits and vegetables in 2022. Read more about this in the materials of EastFruit dated November 30 and December 18, 2021.

We note that most of these decisions are aimed at increasing production volumes. And this is a direct way to reduce the income of producers, if you do not take care of sales. Therefore, solutions are required to such problems as modernizing and improving the varietal composition of fruits grown in the country, improving the storage infrastructure, processing and packaging, and increasing the efficiency of its marketing. We have repeatedly drawn attention to the alarming trend of a decreasing export of vegetables and fruits from Uzbekistan for two years in a row despite the continuing growth in acreage.

10. New players in the retail market

2021 will be remembered for the active expansion of foreign supermarket chains into the Uzbek market. Two foreign retailers came to Uzbekistan – the largest retail chain in Kazakhstan Magnum Cash&Carry and the Russian discounter chain Dobrozen. The first stores of both retailers in Uzbekistan were opened in the last month of 2021.

Magnum in Uzbekistan

The Kazakh chain Magnum Cash&Carry has been getting ready to enter the Uzbek market for about two years, studying its similarity with the Kazakh market and local peculiarities. Finally, the first Magnum hypermarket in Uzbekistan was opened in the renovated Integro shopping center in Tashkent on December 11, 2021. 20 thousand products, from food, household chemicals to non-food products, of leading producers from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and other countries were presented on an area of ​​5000 sq. m. Magnum pays special attention to fresh vegetables and fruits. They include vegetables and fruits even from Brazil, Italy, China, Colombia, USA, Turkey, and, of course, local ones.

The second Magnum store was opened in Uzbekistan in a different district of the same city just a week later, on December 18, 2021. The Kazakh retailer plans to invest about $20 million in the first year of development in Uzbekistan and open two more hypermarkets and several supermarkets in 2022.

Magnum Cash&Carry is the largest retail chain in Kazakhstan. The first store was opened in 2007 in Almaty. The company planned to increase the number of stores to 197 in 11 cities of Kazakhstan by the end of 2021. The total retail area of ​​the chain is 220 thousand sq. m. This indicator is growing by 30% average every year. The chain operates in four formats – express, daily, supermarket and hypermarket, with an assortment of 35-40 thousand SKU, depending on the seasonality.

“Dobrocen” – 4 stores in one month

The first store of the Russian retail chain “Dobrocen” in Uzbekistan opened in Bukhara on December 18, 2021, where more than 1,500 positions of food products, household chemicals and non-food products were presented. The Dobrocen chain opened three more stores in Uzbekistan – in Tashkent, Karshi and Margilan on December 25, 2021. Thus, there are 4 Dobrocen stores in Uzbekistan now.

As of August 2021, the Russian retail chain Dobrocen had 400 stores. It is present only in two countries abroad, except for Uzbekistan: it opened its first store in Belarus in 2019, and in Kazakhstan at the end of April 2021.

The peculiarity of the Dobrocen retail chain is its format of a store-warehouse without division into a sales area and storage, with goods being displayed not on shelves, but on pallets. The assortment includes about 1200 items of the most popular high-quality food products and everyday household goods at the lowest prices.

Bonus – free profitable investment niches of the fruit and vegetable business in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan stays away from the global trends in the fruit and vegetable business, focusing on traditional cultures and varieties. It is convenient, but while other countries earn good money and reinvest it in the development of the produce sector in their countries, Uzbekistan loses these opportunities. By the way, it is crucial for Uzbekistan to rely on trendy and expensive goods, because the country is located far from the main sales markets and has no access to the sea. Therefore, transportation of goods is more expensive for Uzbekistan than for its competitors.

We will provide you with our rating of profitable niches that Uzbekistan missed, despite the possibility to take advantage of them.

Blueberries are the most expensive and trendy berry imported by Uzbekistan in large volumes, that could bring hundreds of millions of dollars in export earnings to the country. For example, Peru earns $1 billion a year from blueberry exports. Read more about this here.

Nuts: pistachio, almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts – Uzbekistan has favorable conditions for the cultivation of most nuts, but does not use them. For example, the USA, where nut production is concentrated in a similar climate region of California, exports nuts worth approximately $9 billion annually! Considering that the domestic walnut market in the United States is also huge, one can imagine how much Uzbekistan could potentially earn on nuts. By the way, Uzbekistan has no problems with finding workers, unlike the United States! There is a playlist “Nuts” on our YouTube channel with many videos on how different nuts are grown, harvested and processed in the USA and Georgia, as well as presentations by the world’s leading experts in nut production.

Berries: Uzbekistan can export traditional berries such as strawberries, raspberries, blackberries and others almost all year round, thanks to the efficient use of climatic zones and greenhouse technologies. Berries are at the peak of healthy eating trends, and there are more and more of them. The berry freezing segment is also growing at a tremendous rate. Spain earns $1.5 billion a year on the exports of berries and Poland – about $700 million (about the same as Uzbekistan on the exports of all vegetables and fruits combined). Uzbekistan with a wonderful climate and cheap labor earns almost nothing. Even in Tajikistan, the segment is developing faster and more successfully. Therefore, there are many possibilities here too.

Kiwi is one of the most profitable crops for farmers in the countries growing it. For example, many farmers remove and replace them with kiwi plantations in Italy. Global trade in kiwi is growing at a high rate. Of the countries in the region, Georgia is the most successful in developing this sector, even exporting its kiwi to Japan – the most expensive and demanding market in the world! Kiwi production in Uzbekistan is also growing, but there are almost no industrial plantations. We wrote about the peculiarities of growing kiwi in Uzbekistan from the experience of an amateur farmer in this article.

Avocados are the fastest growing segment of the horticultural trade in the world. According to preliminary estimates, avocados can be grown quite successfully in Uzbekistan. Mexico receives about $3 billion dollars a year in revenue from avocado exports. The first commercial avocado plantation has already been established in Georgia. The analysis of the regional avocado market is available here.

Asparagus is also trendy in terms of healthy eating. The demand for it is growing rapidly all over the world, including Russia. Uzbekistan could take advantage of this given its climate. We wrote more about the possibilities of Uzbekistan in growing asparagus in this article.

In fact, there are many niches even in the sectors of the fruit and vegetable business traditional for Uzbekistan. For example, high-quality large-fruited cherries, properly cooled, packaged and delivered to China, can provide 10 times higher revenue than cherries grown in the traditional way and exported to the Russian market. By the way, you can compare these approaches in our two videos: “Traditional cherries of Uzbekistan” and “Ultra-modern technologies of cherries in Uzbekistan“.

Similar analogies can be drawn in other segments as well. However, we hope that Uzbekistan will start focusing on trendy and expensive products, as well as their high quality, in order to ensure the growth of exports earnings and welfare for everyone involved in this industry.

If we missed some of the important trends, please let us know in the comments section.

Сообщение Uzbekistan: TOP-10 Main Fruit and Vegetable Events of 2021 (Part II) появились сначала на EastFruit.

Uzbekistan imported 2.3 times more bananas In January-October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Moreover, the volume of banana imports during the reviewed period is 60% more than the annual volume of imports in 2020 and 37% more than in 2019, EastFruit analysts note.

According to the State Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan imported 58.6 thousand tonnes of bananas in 10 months of 2021. For comparison, the volume of imports in the same period of 2020 amounted to 25.5 thousand tonnes, and in total in 2020 – 36.7 thousand tonnes.

The main supplier of bananas to Uzbekistan, as in previous years, is Ecuador accounting for 98.6% of imports in January-October 2021.

Banana consumption in Uzbekistan used to grow very quickly, but the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 interrupted the growing trend, and the volume of banana imports in 2020 decreased by 14% compared to 2019. One of the factors was unfounded rumors that COVID-19 is transmitted with bananas supplied from China. Despite the absurdity of such rumors, they had a negative impact on the consumption of bananas in Uzbekistan.

What explains the continuation of the growing trend and such a solid increase in the consumption of bananas in Uzbekistan in 2021?

First, the influence of rumors discrediting bananas during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic probably faded away in 2021. Secondly, the relatively high prices for many stone fruits and, in general, for fruits and vegetables due to weather anomalies in 2021. Compared to apricots, cherries – at least in the first half of the season, apples of early and mid-season varieties, and pears throughout the season, bananas in 2021 turned out to be a relatively cheap fruit. The third reason is the expansion of supermarket chains that have a crucial impact on the banana trade in the country. For supermarkets, banana is a very convenient product, because they can import it directly all year round and sell it cheaper than in the markets due to the high volume. Therefore, bananas are the most sold fruits in supermarkets in Uzbekistan. Accordingly, as the number of supermarket chain stores in the country grows, the consumption of bananas will grow.

Moreover, given the decision of the government of Uzbekistan dated October 7, 2021 to exempt the import of a number of fruits from custom duties, which also included bananas, the total annual import volume of 2021 may turn out to be even more impressive. As EastFruit already wrote, the exemption from custom duties has already led to a significant decrease in wholesale prices for banana and citrus fruits. Specifically, average wholesale banana prices declined 16% from November 5 to 19, 2021 and current wholesale banana prices are at the lows recorded in January 2021.

Сообщение Uzbekistan imported a record volume of bananas in 2021 появились сначала на EastFruit.

On October 21, 2021, EastFruit wrote about the decision of the government of Uzbekistan to exempt the import of a range of fruits, including bananas, kiwis, citrus fruits, fresh apples, pears, quince and other fresh and dried fruits from customs duties. Prior to this, a customs duty rate of 10-20% was applied when importing these fruits, but not less than $0.2/kg.

One month has passed since the decision was announced by the government of the republic, and analysts are noting how it has de facto affected the wholesale prices over this time. Several fruits and vegetables from the list with a zero import duty are included in the EastFruit weekly wholesale price monitoring. These are bananas, oranges, mandarins, apples and pears. How have their wholesale prices changed?

Oranges

As you see from the chart, average wholesale prices for orange began to fall from November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks, from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 30,000 UZS/kg ($2.81) to 20,000 UZS/kg ($1.86) i.e. by 50%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for oranges in Uzbekistan are 31% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 9% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges repeat the same downward trend that was observed in November-December 2019-2020, then we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Mandarins

In contrast to oranges, the average wholesale prices for mandarins began to decline on the 20th of October. The average wholesale prices fell from 38,000 UZS/kg ($3.55) – the maximum price in the second half of 2021 recorded in mid-October, to 13,000 UZS/kg ($1.21) on 19 November 2021, i.e. almost 3 times. Obviously, the zeroing of customs duties was not the only reason for such a rapid fall in prices for mandarins, but it was one of its factors.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for mandarins are 2.5 times lower than on the same date in 2020, and 32% lower than on the same date in 2019.

Provided that wholesale prices for mandarins will repeat the same downward trend observed in November-December 2019-2020, we can expect a further decline in their prices by the end of this year.

Bananas

As in the case of oranges, the average wholesale prices for bananas began to fall on November 10, 2021, and over the past two weeks – from November 5 to 19, they decreased from 19,000 UZS/kg ($1.78) to 16,000 UZS/kg ($1.49), i.e. by 16%.

As of November 19, 2021, the average wholesale prices for bananas in Uzbekistan are 20% lower than on the same date in 2020 and 11% lower than on the same date in 2019.

If wholesale prices for oranges will repeat the same downward trend as in November-December 2019-2020, wholesale prices for bananas may be even lower by the end of 2021.

It is worth noting that current wholesale banana prices are in line with the lows recorded in January 2021.

As for apples and pears, so far no large reductions in wholesale prices have been noted.

Сообщение How did the exemption from import duties in Uzbekistan affect the prices for citrus fruits and bananas? появились сначала на EastFruit.

Audits of the fruit and vegetable departments of supermarkets by EastFruit have always confirmed the relatively high level of retail prices for bananas in Uzbekistan, caused by extremely low consumption, expensive logistics and high import duties. Therefore, Uzbekistan is a country with ultra-low consumption of bananas. You can read about the banana consumption per capita this article.

It seemed that banana consumption in Uzbekistan couldn’t be lower, but it may decline again in the first half of 2021. And this will happen despite high prices for fruits and vegetables in the country’s market, in particular, apricots and cherries in the first half of the season. The main supplier of bananas to Uzbekistan, Ecuador, reported a three-fold decrease in the supply of bananas to the Uzbek market in January-April. Even an increase in the supply of bananas from Pakistan to Uzbekistan is unlikely to cover the decline in Ecuadorian imports.

What is the reason for the decline in banana imports and can Uzbekistan increase the imports of these fruits in the second half of the season?

One of the main reasons is the global rise in banana prices, which we wrote about here. The second reason is the devaluation of the Uzbek currency. The devaluation of the Uzbek sum added about 5-6% to the price of the banana, which has already risen in price, even without taking into account the decrease in trade volumes, which normally leads to an increase in wholesalers’ markups. The third reason is the discrediting of bananas during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, when a rumor spread throughout the country that covid-19 was transmitted with bananas exported from China. Despite there being no grain of truth in these rumors, they still influence the choice of some consumers.

As a result, we have a rather negative background which, however, may well change in the second part of the season.

The Uzbek team of EastFruit drew attention to the fact that wholesale prices for bananas in the country fell to last year’s levels in US dollars for the first time in 4.5 months, although bananas in sums are still significantly more expensive. As of June 17, 2021, the average wholesale price of bananas in Tashkent amounted to $ 1.79 per kg (19,000 sums), having decreased over the week – from June 10 to June 17 by 14%. On the same date last year, the average wholesale price was only 7 cents lower: $ 1.72 per kg (17,500 sums). However, the wholesale price for local apricots is almost the same now – 16 thousand sums which means that exotic bananas look quite competitive in price.

Supermarket chains have an important influence on the banana trade in the country, too. Moreover, there are more and more of them in the country. For supermarkets, bananas are a very convenient product, because they can be imported directly all year round and sold cheaper than in the markets due to the large volume. Therefore, despite the low consumption volumes, bananas are the most sold fruit in the supermarkets of Uzbekistan. Accordingly, as the number of supermarket chain stores in the country grows, the consumption of bananas will also grow.

Until the coronavirus 2020, banana consumption in Uzbekistan grew very rapidly. In 2017 the country imported 17.5 thousand tons of bananas and in 2019 the volume of imports increased 2.5 times and reached 42.7 thousand tons. In 2020, the imports of bananas to Uzbekistan decreased to 36.7 thousand tons.

Сообщение Uzbekistan imports fewer bananas, despite expensive apricots – why? появились сначала на EastFruit.

This week EastFruit published an analytical article explaining the sharp rise in prices for bananas in the world, including in the countries of Eastern Europe. However, more disturbing news for the banana business followed and they are associated with information about the appearance of the soil fungus Fusarium TR 4 in Venezuela. Although there is no official confirmation from the Venezuelan authorities, the photos and videos circulated in social networks and in the media leave little to no doubt to what is the cause of the deplorable situation on the banana plantations. Today, the Americanfruit publication also wrote about this issue, which, referring to the opinion of experts, comes to the same conclusions – Fusarium TR 4.

Thus, the largest exporter of bananas in the world, which is Ecuador, was completely surrounded by countries where cases of infections with the TR 4 soil fungus have already been confirmed. Cases of TR 4 banana plantations have been confirmed in Colombia and, more recently, even in Peru.

Ecuador annually exports over 6.5 million tons of bananas. Moreover, it is this country that is the largest supplier of bananas to Eastern Europe and Central Asia. So far, Ecuador has not reported cases of infection with the Fusarium  TR 4, but the likelihood of such a development is currently considered very high.

“The spread of the soil fungus Fusarium oxysporum TR 4 may lead to the urgent need to introduce genetically modified (GM) bananas, otherwise a significant part of the world’s population will be left without food. And the development of GM technology also takes time, albeit faster than traditional breeding methods. Besides, traditional breeding is not applicable to bananas, these are triploid plants that do not form seeds,” comments Marite Gailite from Latvian vegetable growers association Latvijas dārznieks.

According to EastFruit estimates, most of the countries in our region, with the exception of Russia, fall into the category of countries with low or very-low consumption of bananas. However, even here, banana is usually the best-selling fruit in supermarkets and the most imported one. On the other hand, Russia recently fell into the category of countries with an average consumption of bananas. Here, bananas are consumed almost as much as apples. Accordingly, price changes in the banana market will have a direct impact on consumers and it will also stimulate growth in demand for apples and other traditional and especially seasonal fruits and berries.

Сообщение More bad news for the banana industry – TR 4 is spreading fast появились сначала на EastFruit.